Is Arizona really sending two Democrats to the Senate? Sort of

Mark Kelly campaigned as an independent-minded moderate, much the same way Kyrsten Sinema did during her successful Senate run in 2018, and experts expect them both to govern that way.

“I think that we should anticipate that our senators won’t be cookie-cutter Democrats,” said Kate Kenski, an author and professor in the University of Arizona’s Department of Communication. “I think that’s why they gained the appeal that they did.”

Kenski said she would be surprised to see Kelly suddenly morph into some left-wing, “version 2.0” of himself, especially considering that he will have to face voters again two years from now.

Ballots were still being counted in the race on Wednesday, but The Associated Press has declared the former combat pilot and astronaut as the winner over incumbent Republican Martha McSally in the race to finish the final term of the late John McCain.

Kelly was leading with 53.4% of the more than 2.6 million votes counted when the AP called the race at just before 1 a.m., according to the Arizona secretary of state’s website. By Wednesday afternoon, his lead had shrunk slightly to 52.6% to McSally’s 47.4%, with hundreds of thousands of ballots reportedly still waiting to be tallied across the state.

The closely watched and historically expensive Arizona race was expected to help decide which party took control of the U.S. Senate, though Democrats’ hopes of flipping the chamber had faded Wednesday.

Kelly and McSally were vying for the right to serve out McCain’s last term, which runs through January 2023.

Gov. Doug Ducey appointed McSally to the seat after McCain’s death in 2018.

If AP’s projection holds up, Kelly could join Sinema in the Senate before the end of the year, under federal rules that call for a midterm election winner to be seated as soon as the results are certified in Arizona on Nov. 30.

UA political science professor Barbara Norrander said successfully portraying themselves as moderates is what helped both Kelly and Sinema make inroads among voters in Maricopa County.

Their prospects were also improved by Arizona’s shifting demographics and its growing Latino vote, which Norrander said probably helped Kelly more than McSally.

Unofficial returns also pointed to a victory in Arizona for Joe Biden, though that result seemed less certain Wednesday afternoon.

If Biden holds on to his early lead, he would be the first Democratic presidential candidate to carry the state since Bill Clinton in 1996 and just the second since Harry Truman in 1948.

“The big takeaway is that Arizona is now a purple state in the statewide races and even in the case of the presidency,” said Kenski, whose work focuses on communication in political campaigns.

Neither McSally nor President Trump were conceding defeat in Arizona on Wednesday.

McSally campaign spokeswoman Caroline Anderegg pushed back on the AP’s decision to call the state for Kelly and Biden, noting the huge number of uncounted ballots.

“Every Arizonan deserves to have their voice heard and vote counted,” Anderegg said in a written statement early Wednesday. “We continue to monitor returns. The voters of Arizona decide this election, not media outlets.”

Kelly, meanwhile, delivered what appeared to be his victory speech at about 10 p.m. Tuesday, though he stopped just short of calling it that.

“I’m confident that when the votes are counted we’re going to be successful in this mission,” Kelly told supporters at Hotel Congress in downtown Tucson, the same spot where he launched his campaign in February 2019.

After AP called the race, Kelly said he was honored that Arizonans trusted him to serve “in this seat once held by Senator McCain.”

“While elections officials continue the important work of ensuring every vote is counted, I am preparing for the job of being an independent voice for all Arizonans, regardless of who they voted for,” he said in a written statement Wednesday afternoon.

“We need to slow the spread of the virus, get our economy back on track, and defend health-care protections for people with preexisting conditions. And I know that together, we can.”

Sinema waited until just after 8 a.m. Wednesday to congratulate her fellow Democrat — and take a veiled swipe at McSally.

“Continuing a long tradition, Arizonans again chose independent leadership in electing our new U.S. senator,” Sinema said in a written statement. “I congratulate Mark on his victory and on the campaign he ran — a campaign focused on the issues that matter to Arizonans and how to get results for our state, rejecting the petty politics of name-calling and false personal attacks.”

She said she looks forward to working with Kelly, then finished by thanking McSally for her service.

If the results hold up, it will mark just the fourth time since statehood — and the first time since Barry Goldwater replaced Ernest McFarland in 1953 — that both of Arizona’s senators have been Democrats.

It will also mean that McSally has lost to both Arizona senators — first to Sinema two years ago and now to Kelly.

As it turns out, the pioneering Air Force combat pilot may have been bucking the odds from the start. According to the national political website FiveThirtyEight, McSally was just the 12th major-party candidate since 1984 to run in a general election for Senate two years after losing in one. Only four of those candidates were victorious on the second try.

Kelly led McSally in the polls and in fundraising throughout the campaign, though neither of them struggled to bring in donations.

The two candidates from Tucson consistently ranked among the nation’s top fundraisers, resulting in what easily ranks as the most expensive political campaign in Arizona history.

The previous record holder was the McSally-Sinema race in 2018, which saw the two candidates combined to spend about $45 million.

This time around, McSally spent $47.6 million all by herself, while Kelly burned through an eye-popping $77.9 million, according to the nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics.

Their combined total of $125.5 million was second highest in the nation behind the $164 million spent in South Carolina by Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham and Democratic challenger Jaime Harrison.

And that doesn’t even count the tens of millions of dollars in outside money that poured into Arizona, as partisan groups wrestled for majority control of the Senate.

Kenski said Kelly was unique in that way. Though he was a first-time candidate, he came with built-in name recognition and a massive fundraising network, thanks to his wife, former Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords, and their work — since she was wounded in the Jan. 8, 2011, mass shooting in Tucson — as national gun-control advocates.

Despite Arizona’s comparatively small population, Kenski said, the state has a rich history of producing big names in national politics, famous for charting their own courses, from Goldwater to McCain, John Kyl and even Jeff Flake.

“That’s been our tradition,” she said. “I think Arizona embraces independence and freethinking.”

Kenski sees some of those same qualities in both Sinema and Kelly.

“The real test of anyone is what they do once they get into office,” she said. “Time will tell.”