Everything old is new again? “Shogun” won a Best Miniseries Emmy more than 40 years ago.
At Sunday’s Emmys, it’s expected to win again – as Best Drama.
The FX series (which everyone thought was a limited series but, apparently, has a second season coming) has all the hallmarks of a memorable production. Expensive, sprawling and filled with indelible performances, it’s an easy winner in a number of categories but the night isn’t a done deal anywhere else.
Hiroyuki Sanada is nominated for lead actor in a drama series for his role as Yoshii Toranaga in "Shogun." The show earned a leading 25 Emmy nominations.
The most hotly contested races, in fact, are in the limited series categories. Here, “Baby Reindeer,” “Fargo,” “True Detective” and “Fellow Travelers” have shots at taking home prizes. The results could bring upsets.
“The Bear” seems likely to dominate the comedy arena, but there’s a real concern that it doesn’t quite fit the category – its episodes are too dramatic to be considered a comedy. That means something like “Hacks” could slip in and shake up the results. Just know: Emmy takes a while to recognize some greatness.
By category, here’s who likely to win and who’s likely to spoil.
BEST COMEDY: “The Bear.” It had that monumental holiday episode that gave Jamie Lee Curtis the best material of her career and a sure shot at a guest performance Emmy. Even though it’s too serious for its own good (and should run in the drama category), “The Bear” will win.
BEST COMEDY ACTOR: Jeremy Allen White, “The Bear.” He was still good in the series’ second season and would lose only if voters felt a need to give Larry David (“Curb Your Enthusiasm”) a farewell Emmy.
BEST COMEDY ACTRESS: Jean Smart, “Hacks.” She was even funnier this year than she was in her previous wins. Chasing after a late-night television gig, she brought out all the tricks and deserves the prize. Ayo Edebiri (“The Bear”) should still be in the supporting category but could spoil.
Jean Smart has won two Emmys for her work as comedian Deborah Vance in "Hacks." She's up again for lead actress in a comedy series.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR, COMEDY: Ebon Moss-Bachrach (“The Bear”) changed the most during the show’s second season and brought the laughs.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS, COMEDY: Hannah Einbinder (“Hacks”) made the most of her season but she’s up against Meryl Streep (“Only Murders in the Building”), who is hard to bet against. Still, we think it’s a “Hacks” year.
BEST DRAMA: “Shogun”; “The Crown” could get another shot.
Hiroyuki Sanada is nominated for lead actor in a drama series for his role as Yoshii Toranaga in "Shogun." The show earned a leading 25 Emmy nominations.
BEST ACTOR, DRAMA: Hiroyuki Sanada, “Shogun.” Spoiler: Gary Oldman, “Slow Horses.” For Sanada, this has been a lifetime project. He deserves it.
BEST ACTRESS, DRAMA: Anna Sawai, “Shogun.” Spoiler: Imelda Staunton, “The Crown.”
Anna Sawai is nominated for lead actress in a drama series for her role as Toda Mariko in "Shogun."
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR, DRAMA: Billy Crudup, “The Morning Show”; still Tadanobu Asano could slip in if this is a big “Shogun” year.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS, DRAMA: Elizabeth Debicki, “The Crown.” While there are others in the category, she towers.
BEST LIMITED SERIES: “Baby Reindeer.” It was so original, so chillingly good, it’d be hard to beat. If it’s bested, it’s because “Fargo” or “True Detective” gained momentum. “Ripley” has a shot, too.
BEST ACTOR, LIMITED SERIES: Richard Gadd, “Baby Reindeer,” but Andrew Scott, “Ripley,” and Jon Hamm, “Fargo,” are potential.
Jon Hamm is nominated for lead actor in a limited or anthology series or movie for his role in the fifth season of "Fargo."
BEST ACTRESS, LIMITED SERIES: Jodie Foster, “True Detective: Night Country” Spoiler: Juno Temple, “Fargo.”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR, LIMITED SERIES: Jonathan Bailey, “Fellow Traveler.”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS, LIMITED SERIES: Jessica Gunning, “Baby Reindeer.” Outside chance: Kali Reis, “True Detective.”
COMPETITION PROGRAM: “The Traitors” but “RuPaul’s Drag Race” is a safe bet.
VARIETY TALK SHOW: “The Daily Show”
VARIETY SCRIPTED SHOW: “Last Week with John Oliver” but “Saturday Night Live,” its only competitor, deserves to win.
“The Emmy Awards” will air Sept. 15 on ABC.
