As political campaigning for the midterm elections is ramping up, millions of voters are considering how they should cast their ballots on Nov. 8, 2022. In addition to the traditional way of voting at their local precinct on Election Day, many have the option to vote earlier by mail.
With the exception of Alabama, Connecticut, Mississippi and New Hampshire, early voting is allowed in 46 states and is offered in different forms such as drop boxes, mail or early voting in person.
Itβs important to check with your stateβs election office, because different states have different deadlines and options available.
In Montana, for instance, early voting is allowed for about four weeks between Oct. 11 and Nov. 7. But in Texas, the early-voting period is only the 10 weekdays between Oct. 24 and Nov. 4.
The Conversation U.S. has published several articles looking at not only the integrity of early voting but also the larger question of turning out the vote.
1. The long, long history of early voting
Early voting periods are as old as presidential elections in the U.S.
It wasnβt until 1845 that Congress adopted the Tuesday after the first Monday in November as the national Election Day.
Given the long history, Terri Bimes, an associate teaching professor of political science at the University of California, Berkeley, raises an interesting point on the impact of early voting on turnout.
βWhile some scholars contend that early in-person voting periods potentially can decrease voter turnout,β Bimes writes, βstudies that focus on vote-by-mail, a form of early voting, generally show an increase in voter turnout.β
Regardless of overall turnout, more and more voters are choosing nontraditional ways of casting their ballots. In the 2020 election, for instance, 69% of voters nationwide voted by mail or through another means earlier than Election Day. That number was 40% in 2016.
The conservative Heritage Foundation conducted a survey in 2020 and found 1,200 βproven instances of voter fraudβ since 2000, with 1,100 criminal convictions over those two decades.
Edie Goldenberg is a University of Michigan political scientist who belongs to a National Academy of Public Administration working group that offered recommendations to ensure voter participation and public confidence during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.
Goldenberg writes: βThe evidence we reviewed finds that voting by mail is rarely subject to fraud, does not give an advantage to one political party over another and can in fact inspire public confidence in the voting process, if done properly.β
More people voted in the 2020 presidential election than in any election in the past 120 years, even as nearly one-third of eligible voters sat it out. That means nearly 80 million Americans did not vote.
Among the reasons nonvoters gave were not being registered, not being interested or not believing their vote made a difference. Despite such apathy, about 155 million voters β thatβs 67% of Americans over 18 β did vote in 2020.
Part of the problem of reducing the percentage of nonvoters at the street level can be getting people to answer their doors to strangers or answering a telephone call placed by a campaign volunteer from an unrecognized number. Before the pandemic, an effective door-to-door campaign could increase turnout by almost 10%; a well-run phone campaign could add an additional 5%.
When University of California, Berkeleyβs Vice Provost for Graduate Studies Lisa GarcΓa Bedolla began studying voter mobilization in 2005, it was common for door-to-door campaigns to reach half of the people they tried to contact. By 2018, that number had dropped to about 18%.
To close the gap, campaigns moved toward asking people to contact people they knew and help turn out those supporters and social networks. Text messages, especially reminder texts, became the virtual door knock.
βThese friend-to-friend approaches are seen as a way to cut through the noise,β Bedolla writes.
These personal approaches can also create a sense of accountability.
Knowing that someone is paying attention to your vote, however it is cast, might make a difference in a local, state or federal election.
The 10 Senate seats most likely to flip in November
1. Pennsylvania
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2. Nevada
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3. Georgia
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4. Arizona
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5. Wisconsin
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6. New Hampshire
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7. North Carolina
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8. Florida
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9. Ohio
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10. Colorado
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The analysis: Some glimmers of optimism for Democrats
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With more than half of this year's competitive Senate matchups set, the overall electoral environment remains consistent: President Joe Biden's poor approval numbers, combined with a pervasive sense that the country is headed in the wrong direction, are weighing down Democrats looking to maintain control of Congress.
But bruising Republican primaries and the US Supreme Court's decision to overturn Roe v. Wade last month offer a few -- albeit potentially ephemeral -- glimmers of optimism for Democrats.
Any big Supreme Court-related development can raise the stakes of Senate races because of the chamber's role in confirming future justices. But last month's ruling that found there was no longer a federal constitutional right to an abortion could drive even more attention to the Senate since it's Congress that would set any future nationwide abortion policies.
Pressed on how to respond to the ruling in an interview with CNN's Dana Bash last month, Vice President Kamala Harris repeatedly said, "There's an election happening."
For Democrats or Democratic-leaning voters, especially those feeling uninspired by Biden's first term so far, the ruling could motivate them to vote this fall. It remains to be seen, however, how much of that energy is sustainable and to what degree the ruling also persuades independents or moderate Republicans to vote Democratic. In the immediate term, the elimination of federal abortion rights has resulted in Democratic outside groups such as Planned Parenthood Votes and Women Vote!, the super PAC arm of EMILY's List, going up on the air attacking Republicans.
Another bright spot for Democrats, underscored by the abortion issue, is that the Senate playing field includes states such as Nevada, New Hampshire and Colorado that have recently voted blue. In fact, seven of the 10 races on this list of seats most likely to flip are in states Biden won in 2020.
The addition of Colorado at No. 10 on this latest ranking, however, speaks to the challenging national environment for Democrats. Economic issues -- high inflation and gas prices this summer travel season -- are still weighing on voters and are often cited as their most pressing concern. Republicans have also tried tapping into Americans' post-pandemic anxieties about safety, with ads suggesting Democrats are soft on crime. Some Democratic candidates have worked to get ahead of those attacks early by featuring uniformed police in their own spots and directly refuting the idea of "defunding the police."
Besides Colorado's appearance on the list, the biggest change to this month's ranking is Nevada and Georgia trading places. It may seem somewhat counterintuitive, especially in this era of hyper-nationalized elections and considering Nevada is a more Democratic state than Georgia. But the change was driven by the candidate matchups in the two states, as things stand now. The ranking is based on CNN's reporting, fundraising and advertising data, and polling, as well as historical data about how states and candidates have performed.