It will be hot and slightly drier for a little while as the 2015 monsoon continues to tease us with prodigious clouds on the horizon.
With any luck, we may get some rain in Tucson.
So far, itโs been a bit of a bust, despite the soupy air.
Itโs been wet up there, just not down here.
The monsoon started early. Since June 26, weโve had 25 days of thunderstorm-worthy dewpoint readings in Tucson, with plenty of extra moisture supplied by a string of tropical hurricanes.
It just didnโt fall to the ground much. Oh, there were some brief downpours in and near the mountains, but unless you live on the far east side or in Oro Valley, you probably havenโt gotten more than half an inch of rain from all those precip-pregnant clouds.
A little south itโs a different story.
Sierra Vista is saturated โ it has received nearly three times its normal summer rain total to date.
It has even rained more than it normally does up in Phoenix. Yes, we are the doughnut hole of dry.
This past weekend, when the National Weather Service predicted a 70 percent chance of rain, 95 percent of us didnโt see more than a few drops.
The National Weather Serviceโs Facebook page turned apologetic on Sunday, posting: โThe weekendโs not over! It could still ... nevermind. Yeah. Pretty much. How can it be the only place that didnโt rain? Sigh.โ
You can blame the dearth of drops during the past two weeks on a skewed weather pattern, said meteorologist John Glueck.
The monsoon shift features winds from the southeast, with moisture sucked into the region from the Gulf of Mexico and the Sierra Madre by a high-pressure system parked over the Four Corners.
That high has migrated eastward. Our flow recently has been from the southwest. That still brought lots of moisture, especially from Hurricane Dolores off Baja California. Thatโs just the wrong direction to blow storms off the mountains toward Tucson, said Glueck.
โWe need to have our good easterly flow and that hasnโt happened for two weeks,โ Glueck said.
Still, โWeโre just a touch below normal,โ said Glueck. The official gauge at Tucson International Airport has collected 0.8 of an inch. Normal is 1.30 inches.
Parts of the city received up to 3 inches of rain, according to tabulations from rainlog.org, but there were also readings of 0.2 of an inch.
Sierra Vista, meanwhile reported 5.67 inches through July 19. Normal is 1.93 inches.
There is time to catch up, said Glueck. โWeโre getting into the meat of it now. Thereโs still 73 monsoon shopping days left.โ
Mike Crimmins, climate specialist with the UAโs CLIMAS report, said the warming of the Pacific Ocean is continuing and actually strengthening as the summer progresses. That El Niรฑo signal usually weakens this time of year, he said.
That has produced four hurricanes in the Pacific so far this year, with moisture from Dolores leading to the storms of last weekend that seemed to fall everywhere but Tucson.
โThe Dolores moisture is just pummeling Southern California,โ he said.
In Tucson, storms seem to get โtantalizing closeโ over-and-over, Crimmins said. โI think El Niรฑo is messing with us a little bit.โ
Rain chances over the next week range from Thursdayโs 40 percent to Saturdayโs 10 percent. It could rain at your house, but then again ....
