PHOENIX — New analysis of Arizona's just-adopted congressional districts underlines how much Democrats stand to lose next year, two data crunchers say.
Political analyst George Khalaf says a review of everything from how well some Republicans did in the 2018 and 2020 elections, to voter registration patterns, suggests that 2022 is going to be a good year for GOP candidates.
How good? Khalaf said it is shaping up to move the state's congressional delegation from its current 5-4 Democratic edge to 6-3 Republican.
To be fair, Khalaf does work for Republicans, through his Data Orbital consulting firm in Phoenix. But he isn't alone in his opinion.
Sam Almy does election data analysis at Uplife, a Phoenix-based political consulting firm that works for Democrats. And he figures there are only two truly "safe" Democratic districts, now held by Reps. Raúl Grijalva and Ruben Gallego.
"Taking a look at the maps, specifically with regard to the competitiveness tables, 6-3 may be the case for 2022," Almy said, though he thinks there are ways for Democrats to hang on to one more seat.
Both Khalaf and Almy are doing more than just analyzing voter registration.
On paper, Republicans account for 34.6% of registered voters statewide, giving them a 3-point edge over Democrats. Virtually all of the other registered voters are political independents, though there are a handful of Libertarians.
Analysts also look at other data points. Those include political history, such as how well candidates have done in the last couple of years with the same group of voters.
"The 2018 governor's race is probably the least predictive just because that race was a blowout," Khalaf told Capitol Media Services.
Incumbent Republican Doug Ducey picked up 56% of the vote against less than 42% for Democrat David Garcia, with most of the balance going to Green Party candidate Angel Torres.
Similarly, the 2020 presidential race, where Joe Biden edged incumbent Donald Trump by 10,457 votes in Arizona, appears not to be a reliable predictor.
Khalaf said it may be best to go farther down the 2018 ballot to see how people in any given area voted. That includes the race for attorney general where Republican Mark Brnovich got 80,672 more votes than Democrat January Contreras statewide.
"It's a race that obviously wasn't under the radar," Khalaf said. "Money was spent significantly from both sides. But the performance was where you would expect a Republican to perform."
"I always look at the mine inspector myself," said Almy. In that race, Republican Joe Hart outpolled Democrat Bill Pierce by 78,452. That's a race that probably reflected how Arizonans think generically about Republicans and Democrats, he said. Few voters pay attention to the little-known candidates in such a low-profile race, but tend instead to vote along party lines.
All that plays out in what will now be Congressional District 6, the new district that runs from midtown Tucson out through parts of of Cochise, Graham, Greenlee and Pinal counties. This area has been politically competitive: Democrats won in 2012, 2018 and 2020; Republicans in 2014 and 2016.
Prior election results using even the new district lines would make it appear to be a toss-up district, where Democrats Biden and Mark Kelly scored small victories in their 2020 races for president and Senate. And Khalaf puts Brnovich's 2018 victory in the AG's race within the highly competitive range in CD6, because the Republican won by only 2.1 percentage points there.
But Khalaf then throws into the mix what happens when turnout is high, looking only at voters who went to the polls in at least three out of the last four elections. And in CD6, Republicans have a nearly 5-point advantage over Democrats in a high turnout race.
He said that's not surprising.
"There's a school of thought that Democrats have performed better in higher-turnout elections and presidential," Khalaf said.
Conversely, in a nonpresidential election year, those affiliated with the party in power in Washington, D.C. — in this case, the Democrats — likely lag in turnout.
Almy agrees that turnout will be key to what happens.
"Turnout always drops in the midterms," he said, for "Dems more so than GOP."
Moreover, Almy noted that the redistricting commission moved large areas of Democratic strength out of CD6 and into already heavily Democratic CD7, which runs west from midtown Tucson out to parts of Yuma and then up into the Phoenix suburb of Avondale.
That not only included pushing the line between the districts farther east in Tucson — to Alvernon Way at some points, to push more Democrats out of CD6 to help preserve the GOP edge there. The commission removed largely Democratic Bisbee and Douglas from CD6, leaving the Republican areas of Cochise County in that district.
Plus, there's an open seat, with Democratic U.S. Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick retiring.
Those same factors go into analyzing what will now be CD4, which runs from Ahwatukee through Tempe into northwest Mesa. This is the area generally reflective of the district currently represented by Democrat Greg Stanton in the U.S. House.
The Democratic candidates for mine inspector and attorney general did win the area in 2018, but just barely, in both cases by less than 52%. That compares with voter registration figures showing Democrats have a 53.5% to 46.5% edge.
Also working for Stanton in what could be a tough year for Democrats is new voter registration, an indicator of voter enthusiasm. In that district, more Democrats signed up to vote in the past 18 months than Republicans.
But that trend is not statewide. Khalaf said that in rural areas, the GOP signed up more people than the Democrats.
That makes sense, he said.
"In the post-Trump era, a lot of Republicans tend to be doing better in rural America," he said. "To me, it's the best indicator in terms of where districts are going to perform in a climate that is hyper-partisan."
"I think District 4 is safely competitive," Khalaf said of the seat held by Stanton.
The incumbent who could face the biggest hurdle is Democrat Tom O'Halleran, who will be running in CD2, a district that sort of mirrors the area he has represented since the 2016 election. That includes Northern and Eastern Arizona but dips all the way down to the edge of Casa Grande.
In 2020 he outpolled Republican Tiffany Shedd by about 12,000 votes out of about 365,000 cast.
But the lines drawn by the redistricting commission for the coming decade aren't what they used to be.
"Now he's looking at a district that President Trump won by almost double digits," Khalaf said.
"Now you add Prescott, an area that he's never represented," he continued, saying that the area "behaves like a typical conservative rural county and rural city would."
All that, Khalaf said, "more than balances out Flagstaff," which is largely Democratic.
He said there's also an "enthusiasm gap" between Republicans and Democrats and "sheer high unfavorables for Biden."
"Adding all of (Republican) Yavapai County doesn't do him (O'Halleran) any favors," Almy agreed.
But he also pointed out that O'Halleran no longer has largely Republican Graham County in his district. And Almy said being an incumbent will help.
Still, an analysis of the 2018 race finds that while Democrats won the statewide elections for secretary of state and school superintendent, the voters in what is now CD2 went the other way.
Almy also said incumbency may help Republican David Schweikert hang on to his seat in a newly drawn CD1, which includes Scottsdale and portions of northeast Phoenix. But he, too, is no shoo-in, with just a 2.5-point GOP voter registration edge and a district that actually went for Biden and Kelly in 2020, though just barely.
