An endorsement this week showed once again where Victoria Steeleβs support lies: in the bosom of the local Democratic Party.
But is it enough for a victory in the 2nd Congressional District Democratic primary, let alone a general-election win over U.S. Rep. Martha McSally?
Those are tougher questions.
On Tuesday, U.S. Rep. RaΓΊl Grijalva endorsed Steele in her run against Dr. Matt Heinz. Like Steele, Heinz is a former state legislator. Unlike Steele, though, Heinzβs local Democratic support is relatively weak.
In fact, the key strengths and weaknesses of the two candidates seem to be opposite.
Heinz has proven to be a strong fundraiser, reporting about $389,000 in contributions as of Jan. 31. But much of that support comes from fellow physicians around the country, people who share his profession but not his district. Locally, heβs not that popular.
Steele has proven a poor fundraiser, raising about $98,000 in the same period, about a quarter of Heinzβs haul. Yet she has broad local support that could be essential in any run against McSally.
These weaknesses have not escaped the notice of state Rep. Bruce Wheeler. The Tucson Democrat previously considered running for the seat, then abandoned the idea. Now heβs considering it again.
The reason?
βI donβt think either one of them can beat McSally,β Wheeler told me Thursday from the state Capitol.
There are two big reasons that make McSally a tough challenge, as former Pima County Democratic Party chair Don Jorgensen pointed out.
βItβs an uphill fight because she has a war chest. Sheβs been effective in running a two-year campaign since she was elected. She has avoided the ideological extreme during her two years.β
In other words, sheβs been a pretty good member of Congress. And on Jan. 31, she reported $3.2 million in campaign contributions, along with $1.6 million in expenses.
So what would convince Wheeler, a long-time legislator and City Council member, to think he can challenge an incumbent with such advantages?
He told me it all turns on what happens March 1. Thatβs Super Tuesday, the day 12 states have presidential primaries or caucuses. If Donald Trump or Ted Cruz remain the strong favorites to win the nomination after those results come in, Wheeler will likely jump in, he said.
His thinking: A Trump or Cruz candidacy will prove disastrous for the Republicans, and the Democratic presidential candidate could well carry candidates further down the ticket to victory.
While McSally has been a strong member of Congress and candidate, she only beat Democrat Ron Barber by 167 votes last time. Unpredictable winds are blowing through national politics, and it wouldnβt be a shock to find a Democrat in her seat come January.
JTED credit fight
At long last, the popular Joint Technological Educational Districts have had their funding restored. But the way it got done was downright bizarre.
Howard Fischer of Capitol Media Services kept us up-to-date these last few weeks, including the strange climax in which the state House of Representatives finally stopped trying to get its own bill passed and instead accepted the Senateβs version.
The condition was that the bill include a long βintent clauseβ that named every House member who supported it. Thatβs 56 names now in the statute that restores almost $30 million per year in funding to these career and technical education programs.
βItβs a hilarious piece of preening,β Sen. Steve Farley, a Tucson Democrat, told me Thursday. βIβve never seen anything like it in law.β
One of the beneficiaries of the intent clause, if you can say it was beneficial, was Tucson Republican Rep. Chris Ackerley. He introduced one of several bills early in the session that intended to restore funding to JTED, but his bill was not the one finally passed.
However he wonβt go unnoticed: Since the list of representatives in the intent clause is alphabetical, Ackerleyβs name goes first.
Flake, McCain on Scalia
An increasingly common split appears to have developed between our U.S. senators, Jeff Flake and John McCain, this time over replacing U.S. Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia.
McCain called on President Obama not to nominate a replacement, though he acknowledged that of course the president can. The Senate shouldnβt confirm the nominee in any case, McCain said.
Flake, on the other hand, has not taken a stand.
The difference could simply reflect where each senator is in his term. McCain is running in a primary election against a more conservative opponent, former state Sen. Kelli Ward. Flakeβs term has two years left.
But Flake has also differed with McCain on issues such as the establishment of diplomatic relations with Cuba. Flake was for it, McCain against.
Downtown brewery debacle
The news that city stopped renovation of the expanded Pueblo Vida brewery downtown was galling. In case you missed the story, the brewery got city permits for the renovation, but the owners did not know that because the building is historic, they also needed to go before the Tucson-Pima County Historical Commission for a review.
Should the owners have known that? Maybe. Should the city have told them? For sure.
This would be a good time for the city to own up to its mistake by shepherding the breweryβs application through the historic preservation process β and for the commission to look on the breweryβs plans generously.
