A new poll suggests it’s Donald Trump’s Arizona Republican Party.

The survey done Wednesday by OH Predictive Insights finds the Trump-backed GOP candidates for the three highest state offices have opened commanding leads in their races ahead of Tuesday’s primary election.

Ditto in the five-way contest to choose a Republican nominee for U.S. Senate.

Less clear, however, is the fate of a Trump-backed ticket in November in a state that not only went narrowly for Joe Biden two years ago but also elected Democrat Mark Kelly to the U.S. Senate over Trump-backed Martha McSally.

At the beginning of this month, in the Republican race for governor, former TV host Kari Lake was leading businesswoman Karrin Taylor Robson by a margin of 39% to 31%, with 21% undecided, according to OH Predictive Insights. The balance was split among Matt Salmon, Scott Neely and Paola Tulliani-Zen.

Now, after Trump appeared at a July 22 rally in Prescott Valley for Lake and other candidates he’s endorsed, the undecideds are down to just 12% in this poll. And Lake is polling at 51% compared with 33% for Robson, the survey finds.

This comes even after Salmon quit the race, endorsing Robson with the request that his supporters back Robson to prevent Lake from grabbing the nomination.

Pollster Mike Noble of OH Predictive Insights noted that Lake captured 75% of those he surveyed who self-identified as a β€œsupporter of Donald Trump.’’ By contrast, Robson picked up the backing of those who said they are a β€œsupporter of the Republican Party.’’

There were some who said they fell into both camps. But Noble said that’s not enough.

β€œThe problem for Robson is that the Trump supporters are a larger group than the Republican Party supporters,’’ he said. Lake is backed by a 2-1 margin among self-identified conservatives, he added.

Noble also found that Lake’s support was pretty universal across the state, with virtually identical numbers among Maricopa County, Pima County and rural Republicans. The highest margin came among those in the 18-54 age group.

He is not alone in his conclusions. A separate survey Friday by Alloy Analytics found Lake with a 10-point lead over Robson and 15% undecided.

In the race for secretary of state, 41% of Republicans told OH Predictive Insights they have not yet made a decision.

But state Rep. Mark Finchem, an Oro Valley Republican backed by Trump, has more than doubled his backing in the past month and is now the pick of 32% of those polled. His closest competitor, businessman Beau Lane, is at 9%, with lower numbers for state Sen. Michelle Ugenti-Ria and Rep. Shawnna Bolick.

The last month also has crystallized the views of Arizona voters in the race for attorney general, the poll finds.

At the beginning of the month, two-thirds said they had no idea who they were backing, with Abe Hamadeh leading with just 6%. Now Hamadeh, the Trump-endorsed candidate, is the choice of 31% of Republicans in the race, nearly double those who say they back Rodney Glassman.

That leaves Andy Gould, Dawn Grover, Tiffany Shedd and Lacy Cooper in single digits.

Trump-backed Blake Masters, hoping to become the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate, is now polling at 36% compared with 21% for Jim Lamon and 12% for Attorney General Mark Brnovich. Michael McGuire and Justin Olson fill out the field.

And while Trump made no endorsements in the race for state treasurer, the poll shows the leading candidate is incumbent Kimberly Yee, who very publicly sought to cozy up to the former president when she announced her reelection bid.

Yee is leading state Rep. Jeff Weninger by 33% to 12%, with Bob Lettieri in third position.

In the other race in which Trump made no endorsement, for superintendent of public instruction, Shiry Sapir saw a strong increase in her support in the past month, from 7% to 21%. That puts her in a tie with Tom Horne, who used to have the job, with state Rep. Michelle Udall at 14%.

But 44% of those questioned said they had still not made up their minds in that race.

The survey of 502 likely Republican voters was conducted with both live calls and peer-to-peer texts where a live person manually sends out a text message to phones for the survey. OH Predictive Insight staffers say that helps with getting results from younger residents. The total survey has a potential margin of error of 4.4%.

OH Predictive Insight is independent of any of the campaigns and has conducted political polling for years.

As to what the findings mean for November, Noble said the best indication has been recent history, and not just the fact that Biden bested Trump in 2020, albeit by a slim margin, in Arizona.

Consider, he said, McSally.

The former member of Congress had the Senate seat formerly occupied by John McCain handed to her by Republican Gov. Doug Ducey. But McSally, who not only got Trump’s endorsement but campaigned with him, was ousted by Kelly in the 2020 general election.

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