One number continues to define the Congressional District 2 race — 161.
That’s the razor-thin margin that forced a recount before Republican Martha McSally officially defeated Democratic incumbent and Jan. 8 shooting survivor Rep. Ron Barber.
That was nearly two years ago, but the number is still relevant — even as the local political conversation is largely eclipsed by the presidential campaign.
McSally and her Democratic rival this time around, former state representative and emergency room physician Matt Heinz, are keenly aware of how competitive the district is. Both are campaigning hard to win over voters.
For her part, McSally has amassed a massive campaign war chest to flood local airwaves, social media channels and mailboxes. As of the last reporting period, McSally had more than $2 million in the bank, according to the Federal Election Commission.
Democrats have rallied behind Heinz, with support from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, several political actions committees and local politicians — even his rival in last month’s primary, former state Rep. Victoria Steele.
Heinz and McSally both ran in 2012 for the seat, although never directly against each other.
Heinz was defeated by Barber, former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords’ one-time chief of staff, in the Democratic primary.
Both candidates are playing to their strengths in the campaign.
Heinz paints himself as an experienced lawmaker with the ability to work across the aisle. He also draws comparisons as an emergency room physician — when a patient comes in, the focus is on the patient and everyone on duty must work together to help that person.
A retired Air Force colonel, McSally relies on her 26 years of service to focus on national-security issues and veterans. She also is an advocate for Davis-Monthan Air Force Base and Fort Huachuca army post.
She and other members of Congress fought successfully to keep A-10s — D-M’s primary mission — flying when the Air Force wanted to begin phasing out the aircraft.
Both candidates are distancing themselves from the presidential election.
“My vote is between me and God and the ballot box,” McSally said when asked about whether she will support Republican nominee Donald Trump for president.
Heinz has been equally coy, saying he is focused on the CD2 election.
Planned Parenthood
Sitting in the corner of his cramped campaign office, Heinz leans in as he talks about what brought him back into the political arena.
“I don’t see shared values in my opponent that are consistent with Southern Arizona,” he said.
Specifically, he pointed to McSally’s repeated votes to eliminate funding for Planned Parenthood.
“That is not this district. That is not Gabby Giffords’ district. That is not Jim Kolbe’s district,” he said. “It is not what Congress should be voting on.”
It isn’t a blue versus red issue centering on abortion, Heinz noted — Planned Parenthood clinics also offer breast-cancer screenings and well-woman health checks. To Heinz, the issue goes back to the “do not harm” philosophy associated with the Hippocratic Oath.
“And do not harm,” Heinz quips, counting out loud the number of times McSally has voted to take away health-care options.
The McSally campaign has rejected Heinz’s claims, noting a recent fact check by the Arizona Republic found Heinz was making false statements about how many people were treated by Planned Parenthood.
The Heinz campaign apologized for the error on Friday.
As for the floor votes against Planned Parenthood funding, the McSally campaign said all members of Congress were required to vote on the issue.
McSally advocated her position as redirecting federal funding to health-care centers in underserved areas.
Still, Heinz is confident going into the final weeks before early ballots are mailed out.
“This is the closest district by registration in the country,” he said.
The Arizona secretary of state lists nearly identical numbers — 132,697 registered Democrats and 132,710 registered Republicans in CD2.
Voter-registration drives and other efforts to get out the vote have Heinz confident that the figures from the secretary of state are outdated.
“I am quite sure we have a very slightly Democratic district now,” he said.
The outlier continues to be independents, the ever-growing group of active voters with no ties to either party.
Heinz believes independents likely lean more conservative in Cochise County, while a majority of them in Pima County are more likely to vote for a Democrat.
“Independents are a little bit like jicama — they take on the flavors of the things around them,” he said.
MORE COMPLICATED THAN BUILDING A WALL
McSally says one of her top issues continues to the be securing the border and addressing a broken immigration system.
She championed the same issue two years ago, but has made little progress in a deadlocked Congress. She has been able to pass some legislation, including the Border Jobs for Veterans Act of 2015, which is designed to speed up hiring of military veterans for jobs with the U.S. Customs and Border Protection Service along the border.
McSally calls for modernization of the country’s immigration laws. She wants to speed up the process for work visas, but would require some kind of “balance” to make sure the move doesn’t take jobs from Americans.
“We have been in a situation for decades with a system that is very cumbersome and doesn’t necessarily make sense to be able to grow our economy,” McSally said.
With a national conversation focusing on whether to build a massive wall along the international border, including in her district, McSally said in some areas, a wall might be helpful. However, a contiguous barrier isn’t a solution, she said.
While the issue of Mexicans crossing the border gets most of the attention, the issue is far more complicated, she said. She mentioned specifically those who have overstayed their legal visas.
“There is a lot of dynamics here,” she said.
Regarding the economy, McSally is concerned how federal sequestration is hampering economic growth, especially in CD2.
Cuts in military spending could harm two Southern Arizona “treasures,” she says, Davis-Monthan and Fort Huachuca.
“Sierra Vista is really suffering, not just in the number of troops, but the number of defense contractors and others that were supporting the war effort,” she said. “We need to make sure we have a strong military, that our defense spending is appropriate to make sure they are keeping us safe.”
McSally’s office announced last month that the National Defense Authorization Act contained full funding for aircraft stationed at D-M and provisions to retain and expand missions at Fort Huachuca.
The former A-10 pilot has also advocated for new missions for D-M, including bringing in drone pilots to be housed in Tucson. D-M is one of five finalists for the new mission.
The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan online newsletter that analyzes elections and campaigns, gives McSally the edge in the race, listing Congressional District 2 as “leans Republican.”
Phoenix-based political analyst Chris Herstam predicts McSally has little to worry about , since she has kept away from the controversies surrounding the Republican presidential nominee.
“Because McSally has successfully distanced herself from Donald Trump and projected an effective mainstream image, she seems unbeatable,” Herstam said.
