Pima County Democrats are digging into their decadal debate over congressional district lines.
As usual, the central questions are about how many Latinos to draw into the district that covers the western part of the Tucson metro area, and how many Democrats to draw into the eastern district.
Generally speaking, the more Latino voters who are in the district represented now by Rep. Raúl Grijalva, the fewer Democrats are available for the district represented now by Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick. The margin of advantage or disadvantage for Democrats could make a big difference in 2022, expected to be a highly competitive election year.
To make matters confusing, the eastern area that was Congressional District 2 is now numbered 6, and the western area that was Congressional District 3 is now numbered 7. Both new districts, are, of course, shaped differently than their predecessors in the current maps drafted by the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission. But they largely overlap, except in the devilish details.
Tucson Mayor Regina Romero weighed into this and other issues in her Oct. 25 letter to the commission. In it, she argues that the north-south line that divides Tucson’s two congressional districts in current maps is drawn too far west.
North of Broadway, the line runs along North Sixth Avenue, North Stone Avenue, North First Avenue and North Oracle Road. Instead, she argued, the line ought to revert to North Campbell Avenue or further east.
“Moving the boundary east to at least Campbell Avenue would make sure that Downtown, the University of Arizona, and 4th Avenue — which are connected economically, demographically and culturally — are not divided,” Romero wrote.
But that comes with trade-offs. The eastern district, as it stands, gives Democrats a projected advantage of 1-2 percentage points, meaning it is highly competitive but slightly advantageous to Dems.
Alison Jones, the former chair of the Pima County Democratic Party, lives a few houses away from the current boundary, she said. She’s worried about putting too many Democrats in the new Congressional District 7.
“The western district is very safely Democratic,” she said. “By pushing the boundary farther east, you’re really taking a risk with the eastern one.”
In other words, the more Democrats you pour into the Grijalva district, the fewer you have for the Kirkpatrick district. Also, the further east that the new Congressional District 7 pushes, the further north its eastern neighbor, Congressional District 6, must expand, taking in more Republican areas such as Greenlee County and Casa Grande.
Tim Steller
LD10 candidates to be chosen
A new Arizona House representative will be chosen to fill a vacancy left in Legislative District 10 by former Rep. Stephanie Stahl Hamilton, who was appointed to replace state Sen. Kirsten Engel in the Arizona Senate last month.
A special election is being held on Nov. 15 to begin the process. About 120 elected precinct committee people will be the only ones eligible to cast a vote, but residents can sign up to attend the virtual meeting on the LD10 Democrats’ website or Facebook page starting Nov. 8.
The names of the top three vote-getters at the special election will “immediately” be forwarded to the Pima County Board of Supervisors, which is charged with making the final appointment.
The supervisors can then choose any of the three candidates to fill the open House seat. It’s unclear when they will make that decision, but it will be before the legislative session begins in January.
There are currently four candidates vying for the Arizona House position. More candidates can sign up by emailing Diane Nevill, the chair of the LD10 Democrats, at nevillpeake@me.com. They must be residents of LD10 and members of the Democratic Party.
Sam Kmack
Independent voter registrations up
Nearly 29,500 Arizonans registered to vote between July and October, according to numbers released this week by the Arizona Secretary of State’s Office. The change brought the state’s total number of voters to 4,349,842.
Arizona’s Democratic Party has lost nearly 1,700 voters since July, while the Republican Party gained about 5,100. The vast majority of new voters — more than 26,500 of them — registered as independents.
The percentage of the electorate controlled by either major party continued to decline during the past four months, a trend that has been consistent since at least April.
The GOP still controls a plurality of voters in Arizona, with about 35% as of October. Independents represent 33% of the state’s voters, and 32% are registered Democrats.
In Pima County, the Democratic Party lost about 3,200 voters and the number of registered Republicans declined by about 1,600. Around 900 residents registered as independents.
The county lost nearly 4,000 registered voters over the past four months, bringing its total number of voters to 628,049.
Two-fifths of Pima County voters were registered Democrats as of October, while less than a third were Republicans. Independents represented about 31% of the county’s electorate.
Sam Kmack
Magnus wins key vote in Senate
Tucson Police Chief Chris Magnus moved one step closer to becoming the next commissioner of U.S. Customs and Border Protection after a Senate committee narrowly approved his nomination, voting Wednesday largely on party lines.
The Senate Finance Committee voted 15-13 to advance Magnus, whose nomination still needs approval by the full Senate. All but one committee Republican opposed the nomination Wednesday, with Sen. Mike Crapo, R-Idaho, taking the opportunity to attack the Biden administration’s handling of the border and to criticize Magnus as not ready for the job.
Magnus would go from running an 1,100-member police department to a 60,000-worker federal agency.
But Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Oregon, said that while Magnus is walking into a tough situation, he is the right man. “(It’s) clear to me,” he said, he “is going to handle this job with hard work and a sense of decency.”
President Joe Biden nominated Magnus in April.
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