Cities, counties and states around the country are gearing up for this year’s census count, an important process that helps determine federal funding and political representation over the next decade.
But as Pima County’s municipalities begin their efforts, they’re focusing on targeting one specific sect of the population — the “hard-to-count” group, which includes young children, young adults, rural residents, low-income residents, minorities, non-English speakers and others.
“Arizona is considered more of an at-risk state because we do have more of a Latino population and folks that we’re a little more worried about with trust issues,” said Nathaniel Sigal, senior policy adviser for Tucson Mayor Regina Romero.
The U.S. Census Bureau last week began mailing invitations to participate in the 2020 census. The mailers will make their way to every household and detail the four ways residents can participate in the count, including by mail, online, phone, or through an in-person visit from a census taker.
$20.5B in funding
Arizona was one of the fastest growing states in the nation since the last census count in 2010. Recent estimates showed the state-wide population was roughly 7.1 million in July 2018, good for about a 12% increase since 2010. That resulted in $20.5 billion in federal spending programs for Arizona, as of the 2016 Fiscal Year.
The state-wide growth has out-paced the city of Tucson, which saw a 4% increase over the same timeframe, and Pima County as a whole, which grew 6%, according to Census Bureau statistics. Other municipalities have grown faster, such as Oro Valley at 11%, and Marana, at 36%.
But those numbers come with a caveat, said Jason Jurjevich, associate professor of practice at the University of Arizona, who pointed out the state ranked 38th in the country for census participation during the last count.
Jurjevich’s research pinned that on the hard-to-reach populations. He estimated that if census participation does not increase in 2020, 1.6 million Arizonans will be hard to count in the census. And if the participation rate falls significantly, or about a 4.3% decline, 1.8 million Arizonans could be hard to count.
"I think there's strong evidence that the internet response option could in fact increase response rates, but there's a corresponding uncertainty if it will, and if so, by how much," said Jurjevich, who works in the school of geography and development.
Part of the population requires some degree of additional outreach like an additional reminder, phone call, or flier after the initial form is sent out, while others require more extensive outreach like a census counter coming to their door, he said.
“The challenge is that that type of outreach takes a lot of resources, time and money, which is often times part of the reason why a lot of these individuals tend to be undercounted in Arizona," Jurjevich said.
Long-term preparations
For the city of Tucson, they’ve been deliberately planning for the last two years to reach the hard-to-count population by having a bilingual and social media campaign strategy that “reminds people that this why it’s important to participate,” according to Mayor Romero.
She said the efforts of the Trump administration to include a citizenship question on the census — an effort that was ultimately withdrawn — has raised concerns regarding the census for some of those populations.
“We don’t know if that is going to affect the turnout,” Romero said. “There's a lot of doubt in the mind of people whether they can trust the government to keep their information safe.”
Sigal, the mayor’s policy advisor, estimated that each person not counted would cost the state $887 annually. Even if Arizona had an undercount of about half a percent, it would cost the state about $600 million over the course of a decade, he said.
The city of Tucson has pledged to invest $200,000 to the Pima Association of Governments and the Tucson mayor and city council approved an additional $350,000 that will be used for an independent city campaign, officials said.
“We all recognize how important the census is and for two years, me and my colleagues have been talking about putting in some money for the census and not really waiting for other efforts to come in,” Romero said.
The responsibility to increase participation — and ensure an accurate count — ultimately falls most on the U.S. Census Bureau.
Where the burden falls
Maria Cardenas, U.S. Census Bureau partnership specialist for Pima and Pinal counties, said it’s her job to go out and engage with local organizations to create bridges between the bureau and the community to produce a better count.
"We let citizens know the census is important, easy and safe," said Cardenas, who has been working in the community as a bilingual elementary school teacher for over 20 years, enabling her to build community interactions and educate the public better.
She said the Census Bureau has a program of group counters to count the homeless populations while also doing a 24-hour program of counting people in places like under bridges, in their cars and parking lots.
She said she wants people to know the bureau cannot share the information with law enforcement agencies and employees cannot share any information because they can face criminal penalties, including prison and fines.
Smaller municipalities take part
Preparations are also being made in other parts of Pima County, either through social media campaigns or by partnering with the Pima Association of Governments to do census outreach.
Sheila Storm, communications director for the Pima Association of Governments, said their “Count me in!” campaign is a regional awareness campaign “targeted toward hard-to-count audiences.
They use a mix of digital, social media and traditional media advertising with the goal to encourage participation in the census.
“As our population grows, it’s important that everyone is counted so that these critical programs and services are funded to support local needs,” Storm said.
PAG has a $280,000 budget for census awareness campaigns, a number that does not include investments from the city, county and others. In addition to the city investment, Pima County gave PAG $100,000 for census outreach, mostly to be used for media purchases. An additional $50,000 was received from the Tohono O'odham gaming revenue to be used for posters, fact sheets, stickers and more.
South Tucson officials are planning a town meeting that included Cardenas to discuss the census. Churches were invited to participate and engage with the public to increase Spanish-only speaker’s participation in the census.
“Participating would allow the city to access funding sources that would improve the city overall,” South Tucson city manager John Vidaurri said. “As one of the poorest cities of Arizona, this certainly would be something that would be very helpful to improving the services that we currently offer.”
Oro Valley and Marana are primarily working with the PAG to do census outreach and have their own social media campaigns as well.
Lisa Shafer, director of Marana’s Community and Neighborhood Services, said their partnership with PAG by allows them to utilize their census resources and materials, while also doing their own social media campaign.
Shafer said if the census count is accurate, Marana can become a direct recipient of Community Development Block Grants to help the lower-income population once they hit 50,000 residents.
Oro Valley has a social media campaign that will run until April 1.
“The important thing for folks to remember is that if you completely fill out your census, the census people won’t come to your door,” said Joe Lunne, public information officer for the town.
