Some tantalizing chances of rain early in the week have since evaporated, but Tucson could start to see a little monsoon action next week.
First, though, we have to get through another hot, dry weekend, as spring officially turns to summer on Sunday.
As recently as Wednesday, the National Weather Service was predicting a 20% chance of isolated thunderstorms in Tucson on Friday and beyond. That forecast changed after “some drier air kind of made its way into Southeastern Arizona,” said Glenn Lader, meteorologist for the service in Tucson.
Forecasters now believe Tuesday, June 22, is the soonest we might see some rain, so this will have to suffice for good news: After Sunday, temperatures are expected to drop below 110 for the first time in days.
Thursday, June 17, marked the sixth straight day Tucson set a record high for the date. It was also the sixth straight day of temperatures of 110 or higher, which tied a record set in 1994. That record is almost certain to be broken Friday, when forecasters expect a high of 113.
If the temperature hits 112 on Saturday and 110 on Sunday as predicted, the new record for consecutive days at or above 110 will be stretched to nine.
June 15 marked the official start of monsoon season, but that date wasn’t determined by the weather this year. The season is marked by a shift in the wind that brings moist air up from the south.
“The pattern is starting to look positive. It’s starting to set up, but it takes a little time to get here,” Lader said. “It’s not here yet, but we’re optimistic.”
A trace of rain fell on the official weather station at Tucson International Airport on May 21, but Tucson has not recorded any measurable rainfall since March 23 — a streak, as of Thursday, of 86 days.
The longest Tucson has gone without measurable rain is 114 days. Lader said he thinks that record is safe for now.
