Tucson could see record-level heat this weekend

Coming off a break from the heat over Labor Day weekend, forecasts show Tucson could see high temperatures over the next two days that may break records.

Initially issued as an excessive heat watch, the National Weather Service in Tucson upgraded this weekend’s advisory to an excessive heat warning early Thursday.

The warning is in effect from early Friday to Sunday evening.

The high temperature Saturday is expected to reach 108 degrees, two degrees higher than the 106-degree record set in 1990. Sunday is expected to reach 107, potentially tying the Sept. 10 record also set in 1990.

The hottest September day on record for the Tucson metro area was set on Sept. 4, 2020, when the Old Pueblo reached 110.

As of Thursday, the weather service here has recorded three days of 100-plus-degree temperatures this month. On average for September here, it reaches triple digits eight times. Two days this month have reached 105 degrees.

Monday’s high temperature is expected to reach 104. However, the forecast says the hot day comes with a 30% chance of rain in the evening.

It is well known that Tucson’s summer has been one of the hottest on record.

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Despite a recent string of days below 100, Tucsonans should expect “warm and above-normal” temperatures to close out the monsoon season, said Chris Rasmussen, a meteorologist for the local weather service. He went on to say the hot temperatures might not be excessive.

And, he said, the chance of thunderstorms is dropping.

“It’s not really until the first half of next week, Monday through Wednesday night, where we see an increase in showers and thunderstorms,” he said. “I don’t want to say it’s going to be the last chance of our monsoon season, which ends (Sept. 30), but it’s definitely showing signals that we’re going to see some substantial drying starting the second half of next week and going forward.”

While Rasmussen said he can’t rule out moisture creeping back into the area before the end of the month, it gets more difficult for storms to occur as the end of the monsoon season approaches.

Beginning Tuesday, Tucsonans should expect highs to dip below 100 degrees, but they will rise again by the end of the week when the area is drier.

Rasmussen expects this substantial drying period to begin on Thursday and last through the rest of the week, bringing the daily highs back above 100.