More than 74,000 Pima County residents could be at risk of losing their homes as Arizona Gov. Doug Duceyβs moratorium on evictions approaches its end.
Across Arizona, 365,000 renters could face eviction over the next four months, according to a recently published analysis by the international consulting firm Stout Risius Ross.
The University of Arizonaβs Innovation for Justice Program at the James E. Rogers College of Law uses Stoutβs methods for making local predictions while the programβs Cost of Eviction Calculator provides cost estimates: The state could pay over $2 billion and the county upwards of $419 million for costs related to a surge of evictions. Among the expenses: related child-welfare cases; medical and emergency room visits; shelter fees; and involvement in the juvenile court system.
Duceyβs order delaying evictions for renters affected by COVID-19 is scheduled to expire July 22.
There are no plans to extend the order at this time, said Patrick Ptak, the governorβs spokesman, who added that the state is continuing to monitor the situation.
βSince March, $5.7 billion has been paid out to 15 million initial and continuing unemployment claims,β Ptak said. βWe donβt want to see anyone kicked out of their home.β
Pima County and the city of Tucson are meeting regularly to prepare for what could be an explosive crisis, compounded by people still struggling to file unemployment claims.
Further, over the last few weeks, there have been delays in unemployment payments brought on by a statewide effort to weed out fraud in thousands of claims. Ptak said the fraud investigation is happening not just in Arizona, but in several states nationwide.
A βnumber of checksβ have been withheld over the last two weeks due to the investigation, said Brett Bezio, a Department of Economic Security spokesman.
βThis followed a spike in claims being filed about two weeks ago,β he said. βThe department assessed all claims received to determine those that contained possible fraud and have released payments for those that did not trigger a fraud indicator.β
Requests for more information and exact numbers were not released to the Arizona Daily Star as of Friday, but Bezio did say there are βtens of thousands of pandemic unemployment assistance claims identified as potential fraud being held as we evaluate the circumstances of those claims.β
Tucson already a βtopβ city for evictions
During prepandemic times, Tucson was already a βTop 25 evicting city,β with a filing rate more than 3% above the national average, according to the national Eviction Lab, Princeton Universityβs nationwide database of evictions.
As Tucson prepares for evictions to increase, the cityβs housing director, Liz Morales, said Tucson is setting up a system to make direct payments to landlords, and also will be asking landlords to hold off eviction requests as they try to help tenants stay or find alternative housing.
Together, the city and county have about $14.5 million from the CARES Act β a sum that Houston ran through in less than a day of providing housing assistance earlier in the pandemic.
Morales said the countyβs constables have been proactive in working with the city. The plan is for the constables to refer people directly when they are about to serve eviction papers.
βHopefully, within two weeks, weβll have a good process and a quick way for them to access us,β Morales said.
Another message she wants to get out: Tenants need to contact their landlords if they are experiencing COVID-related challenges, including layoffs. Morales said several property owners and managers here said thatβs still not happening enough.
βMaybe they are afraid to let the landlord know what their issues are, but I think if most landlords know they are struggling, they will work with them and help them find resources,β she said.
Daniel Tylutki, interim director for Pima County Community Development and Neighborhood Conservation, said his office is planning to collaborate with both the city and local nonprofits to try to help.
Pima County is hiring 25 people to help with the waiting list, which includes 5,300 active applications. Tylutki said they are working on about 1,300 right now.
During a typical year, Tylutkiβs office assists about 1,500 people with rental assistance. During the pandemic, it has received about five yearsβ worth of requests, so far.
βOne major concern all of us can agree on is that more time is needed to get the funds to people that are suffering,β said Meghan Heddings, executive director with Family Housing Resources, adding that the current requirements to apply for help are βoverly burdensome, especially for someone in crisis mode, and therefore many people never finish pulling together all of the items needed.
βThere are positive steps happening, but the likelihood of the county employing 25 new staff, training them and being able to distribute the funds available to all those that need it by July 23 is an unrealistic task.β
End of protection: βa pending tsunamiβ
Many of the nonprofits that will help people who lose their home during the months ahead are already stressed with requests.
The end of Duceyβs executive order is a βpending tsunami,β says Peggy Hutchison, CEO of the Primavera Foundation.
βThe nonprofit sector is working closely with the for-profit sector to prevent evictions and keep our residents and our communities safe from the coronavirus,β she said.
βWe need the governor to work with us to do whatβs best for the residents across the state. An investment in eviction prevention now will be a huge step in preventing the spread of the coronavirus while also helping to save our economy.β
A lack of affordable housing, evictions, and homelessness have been at crisis levels for years, said Jay Young, executive director with the Southwest Fair Housing Council.
βThe market is not producing enough housing across the spectrum, particularly affordable housing. Section 8 and public housing have years-long wait lists,β Young said. βPeople facing evictions have very few resources to assist them and almost never have counsel to represent them. People are homeless, generally speaking, because we lack the political will as a country to house them.β
And, he said, all of these issues are now being greatly exacerbated by the pandemic.
Solving these issues will require that the federal government fund nonprofits at dramatically higher levels, he said.
βThe data shows that people of color are much more likely to live in neighborhoods of low opportunity and high rates of poverty in Tucson and most cities and towns throughout the country,β Young said. βThis pandemic has again made it glaringly apparent that our communities are still separate and unequal in many ways. β
Ron Barber, district director for Democratic U.S. Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, said legislation introduced in the House and co-sponsored by Kirkpatrick would expand the federal eviction moratorium under the CARES Act, which is set to expire at the end of the month, and expand the moratorium to cover all renters until March 2021.
Doing so would help people most at risk from domestic violence, mental health problems, suicide and substance abuse compounded by the COVID-19 pandemic, Barber said.
βWe know from reports by police and social service agencies that these are some of the βhiddenβ negative impacts of the stay-at-home requirements, along with unemployment being at an all-time high,β Barber said.
βThe solution is in the hands of the governor and the Congress.β
