WASHINGTON β Italo Medelius was leading a volunteer drive to put Cornel West on North Carolinaβs presidential ballot last spring when he received an unexpected call from a man named Paul who said he wanted to help.
Scholar and activist Cornel West speaks July 15, 2023, in Los Angeles.Β
Though Medelius, co-chairman of Westβs βJustice for All Party,β welcomed the assistance, the offer would complicate his life, provoking threats and drawing him into a state election board investigation of the motivations, backgrounds and suspect tactics of his new allies.
Across the country, a network of Republican political operatives, attorneys and their allies is trying to shape Novemberβs election in ways that favor former President Donald Trump. Their goal is to prop up third-party candidates such as West who offer liberal voters an alternative that could siphon away support from Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee.
Itβs not clear who is paying for the effort, but it could be impactful in states decided by miniscule margins in 2020.
Itβs money Westβs campaign does not have and he has encouraged the effort. Last month the academic told The Associated Press that βAmerican politics is highly gangster-like activityβ and he βjust wanted to get on that ballot.β
Trump has called West βone of my favorite candidates.β Another is Green Party candidate Jill Stein. He favors both for the same reason. βI like her very much. You know why? She takes 100% from them. He takes 100%.β
Paul Hamrick talks with reporters after the jury in the federal corruption trial against him, as well as former Gov. Don Siegelman, former HealthSouth CEO Richard Scrushy and Mack Roberts, reported it was deadlocked on a verdict, June 22, 2006, in Montgomery, Ala.Β
Democrats are exploring ways to lift Randall Terry, an anti-abortion presidential candidate for the Constitution Party, believing he could draw voters from Trump.
But the GOP effort appears to be more far-reaching. And after years of Trump accusing Democrats of βriggingβ elections, it is his allies who are now mounting a sprawling and at times deceptive campaign to tilt the vote in his favor.
βThe fact that either of the two major parties would attempt financially and otherwise to support a third-party spoiler candidate as part of its effort to win is an unfortunate byproduct" of the current election laws βthat facilitate spoilers,β said Edward B. Foley, a law professor who leads Ohio State Universityβs election law program.
One key figure in the push is Paul Hamrick, the man on the other end of the call with Medelius in North Carolina.
Hamrick is counsel for the Virginia-based nonprofit People Over Party that has pushed to get West on the ballot in Arizona, Maine, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Virginia, as well as North Carolina, records show.
In an interview, Hamrick declined to say who else besides him was orchestrating the effort and would not divulge who was funding it. He disputed any suggestion he was a Republican, but acknowledged he wasnβt a Democrat, either.
West qualifies for ME ballot
Hamrick was chief of staff to former Alabama Gov. Don Siegelman, a one-term Democrat booted from office in 2003 and later convicted and sentenced to prison on federal bribery, conspiracy, and mail fraud charges. Hamrick was charged alongside his former boss in two separate cases. One was dismissed; he was acquitted in the other.
Hamrick voted in Alabamaβs Republican primary in 2002, 2006 and 2010, according to voting records maintained by the political data firm L2. He was tapped briefly in 2011 to work for the Alabama state Senateβs Republican majority. Since 2015, federal campaign finance disclosures show, he has contributed only to GOP causes.
Hamrick denied voting in any Republican primaries, suggesting that the voting data was inaccurate.
Depending on how and where their music is used, musicians may have grounds to take action beyond rebuking, according to legal experts.
For years, he was a consultant for Matrix LLC, an Alabama firm known for its hardball approach.
Matrix LLC was part of an effort in Florida to run βghost candidatesβ against elected officials who had raised the ire of executives for Florida Power & Light, the stateβs largest utility.
Daniella Levine Cava, the current mayor of Miami-Dade County, was a target, but the effort failed and she won her race for county commissioner, the Miami Herald reported in 2022.
A company Hamrick created paid a spoiler candidate a $60,000 salary and rented a $2,300-a-month home for him, according to the newspaper and business filings made in Alabama. Hamrick said the candidate worked for him to help recruit business. Hamrick denied having anything to do with the manβs campaign.
Hamrick is playing a prominent role to place Westβs name on the ballot in battleground states. Hamrick surfaced in Arizona two weeks ago after a woman told The Associated Press that a document was fraudulently submitted in her name to Arizonaβs secretary of state, in which she purportedly agreed to serve as an elector for West. She said her signature was forged and she never agreed to be an elector.
After the AP published her account, Hamrick said he spoke to the womanβs husband, attempting to rectify the situation and βgave some information.β Hamrick declined to say what information was shared. He also tried to persuade another elector who backed out to recommit to West, according to interviews and voicemails.
The next day, with the deadline to qualify for the Arizona ballot hours away, Brett Johnson, a prominent Republican lawyer, and Amanda Reeve, a former GOP state lawmaker, made house visits to each as they tried to persuade them to sign new paperwork to serve as West electors.
Johnson and Reeve work for Snell & Wilmer, which has done $257,000 worth of work for the Republican National Committee over the past two years, campaign finance disclosures show.
Hamrick declined to comment on the role of Johnson and Reeve, who did not respond to requests for comment.
West did not qualify for the Arizona ballot.
Medelius, the North Carolina co-chairman of Westβs βJustice for All Party,β said the partisan battles over third-party candidates amounted to a βgang war.β
βIf they want to use us for cannon fodder, thereβs not much I can do about it,β he said.
Can relocation trends by Americans across state lines swing the 2024 election?
On the move...
Updated
Will recent moves by Americans across state lines decide this year's presidency?
After all, just about 13% of Americans relocate yearly, and almost 20% are between states. According to moveBuddha's calculations, that means roughly 30 million Americans have moved to a new state since the 2020 election.
Spread that across 50 states, and migrations can shift elections.
This happened in the 2020 presidential election when 29% of voters were new to their state voting rolls. Relocation largely went from large urban areas to smaller urban areas in redder states.
What about this year? Looking at moveBuddha's mover search data collected since the last election, we found which states will experience an internal shake-up due to a tsunami influx of new residentsβand how this could impact the upcoming presidential election.
Key Takeaways
- Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia: The battleground swing states. These swing states drawing in new residents to their urban blue islands may be swinging blue in 2024.
- Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania: Swing states with stagnating in-moves will not have their 2024 election numbers changed by migration.
- Job growth and strong economies mean red states keep growing and winning electoral seats, but only some will keep their conservative identities.
- Blue states are losing seats and population but getting deeper blue.
Blue Islands Are Key To Tipping Elections
One big way that internal migration could impact the 2024 election is in states where the battle between Democrats and Republicans is already close β and which are growing because new residents are pouring in.
So, which of the nation's purple states have been hot on movers' lists since the last election?
Of this year's battleground states, Nevada, Georgia, and Arizona have been some of the top move-to states of the past 4 years.
Election watchers might wonder if a state's new residents can sway its political base (and not be swayed by it). The key is "blue islands."
What's a blue island? It's a Democratic pocket in an otherwise Republican area. Large cities are more likely to lean Democratic than their rural counterparts, so the island effect is evident in states that heavily lean red, where Democratic voters cluster in cities like Nashville in Tennessee (where voting districts were split up to eliminate the threat), or Austin in Texas.
To grow, a blue island has to be large enough to support a diverse economy and accommodate new residents, like Atlanta, Las Vegas, and Phoenix. All three are their swing state's biggest economic hubs. Phoenix alone boasts more than a million more people than the state's second-largest city, Tucson. Perhaps because of the sheer people-power of their blue islands, these three swing states have seen progressives make state-level inroads since 2012.
Blue Islands Sway Their States with Jobs and Cheap Housing
Updated
States with powerful blue islands share more than simply being left-leaning urban areas in right-leaning states, where progressives have made inroads since 2012. They're all in the top ten for job growth. That means these positions are likely being filled by newcomers to these cities.
Not coincidentally, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona are all swing states that were instrumental in deciding the 2020 election. In Georgia, interstate moves to Atlanta were instrumental in shifting the 2020 election to Biden.
Ironically, blue islands might benefit from lax state-level business regulation, which lets them grow into large-scale job magnets for their states. That entices young, educated in-migration. Since both Gen Z and millennials, as well as those with college degrees, are more likely to vote blue. New workers in blue island cities grow a state's Democratic base.
Movers are flocking to strong economies with affordable housing costs and job opportunities.
Young Workers Bring Democratic Votes
Updated
That means that at the state level, many of the "red" moves are actually trending "green," as new residents say yes to new financial opportunities and homeownership in up-and-coming cities.
Consider the example of Arizona, a "swing state" thanks to Joe Biden's narrow victory in the 2020 election. Biden was the state's first Democratic presidential pick since 1948. Today, Arizona is even more poised to vote blue due to high in-migration from those wowed by its growing economy. Arizona is:
- #10 for GDP growth from Q3 2020 to Q3 2023
- #5 for job growth from Jan 2020 to Jan 2024
- #5 for building permits per capita in 2023
Some analyses also point to "priced-out" Californians and Washingtonians as a reason Arizona has passed recent progressive legislation. Ultimately, where economic prosperity brings young, urban workers pushed out of democratic strongholds by the high cost of living, those young, urban workers bring Democratic votes.
Midwestern Swing States Swing Less
The same swing power doesn't apply to Midwestern swing states Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. moveBuddha data shows that all three have had more moves exiting their states than moving in since 2020, especially in Michigan and Pennsylvania.
That has resulted in a net loss of electoral seats for Michigan and Pennsylvania following the 2020 census.
Because interstate moves are likely to prioritize jobs, family, and cost of living rather than politics, moving influx favors red states but likely doesn't supply them with solely red residents.
While a mixed political bag of residents exits these Midwestern swing states, no newcomers arrive, leaving their internal demographics mostly unchanged. That's down to the economic fates of the Midwest. Housing costs in the lower half of states might attract incoming grads looking to live better on the cheap. But that's not much use when job creation is also in the bottom half of states. GDP growth is also in the bottom half.
All three states traditionally comprise the "blue wall" where Democrats have dominated politics. Yet all have seen more of their residents embrace populism as the Republican party and Donald Trump win over working-class voters. While they're still important battleground states in 2024, it's not because a wall of new residents is changing the game.
Seeing Red: Moves to Red States Still Going Strong
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The states grabbing the most new residents are staunchly red. For moves spanning 2020 to 2024, just 1 blue state appears in the top eight for most in-moves versus out-moves: Maine (20 electoral votes, split).
Voters Leaving Blue States May Not Be Democrats
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Conversely, among the top states for out-moves, the 8 largest losers since 2020 are all blue: California lost the most people compared to in-moves, followed by New Jersey, Illinois, Maryland, Connecticut, Rhode Island, New York, and Massachusetts.
However, research suggests that those deep blue-state goodbyes aren't necessarily Democrats. Instead, they may be Republican residents self-sorting to locales where they feel they'll be more welcome.
For instance, movers from Washington to Idaho have overwhelmingly registered to vote as Republicans in their new state, turning the state even more Republican (and making it harder for Republicans in Washington to edge out Democrats in future elections). Further, there are no "blue islands" in Idaho where urban workers find their perfect neighborhoodβjust three counties in Idaho went blue in the 2020 election, and none include the state's most populous cities like Boise, Pocatello, or Idaho Falls.
For states like Idaho, the wave of new Republican residents won't change elections. As the Republican candidate, Donald Trump won Idaho by almost 31% in 2020. Adding to his lead is simply icing on the cake for Republican Idahoans.
Are Red States Holding Onto Their Red Identities Better?
If red states are earning more blue and red residents, why aren't they turning bluer? There are some reasons:
- Economics is political. Movers seeking a business-friendly environment and low taxes are likely self-sorting into Republican states.
- More voters are registering as Republicans, including movers who are taking on the identities of their new locales, or those simply registering as Republicans so they can have a voice in red-state primaries.
- Republican states tend to be sunbelt states that attract older retirees, who lean more Republican than other demographics, solidifying the state's existing political leanings.
- Entrenched state cultures are tough to change but easy to join. Newcomers may be adopting their new neighbors' culture rather than swaying it.
South Carolina, the second-top move-in state from 2020 to 2024, is a prime example. With more than twice the number of people moving in than moving out from 2020 to March 2024, it's a conservative behemoth that's only getting bigger, and it has done so while keeping its Republican tilt.
While South Carolina is #2 in in-moves, it may be retaining its Republican identity because it fares a little worse on dimensions of economic growth, suggesting it's not attracting as many young, urban workers as other states. In fact, there is plenty of evidence it's attracting a retirement crowd eager to enjoy its beaches and mild weather. And while it's growing, its GDP growth in the past 4 years has not kept pace with population growth, coming in 18th. Similarly, job growth over the same period lags compared to other top-growth regions at 11th place.
In the end, it may not be simply that a state wins new movers that shift its politics. Political change may be linked more closely to what kinds of movers they attract.
Blue States Lose Electoral Votes But See a Silver Lining
A flip-flop from red to blue would be the end of the story if moves from blue states were all Democrats moving their vote to a new locale. But it's not an equal trade.
Many young movers are actually Democrats heading to jobs in blue cities in red states. Republicans are also heading to red states. Ditto retirees seeking sunshine, those seeking a safer environment, and those chasing affordability.
Regardless of their political leanings, red states are the big relocation winners, while blue states are attracting a narrower band of newcomers.
Overall, Republicans are losing ground in existing blue states. With an exodus of voters, they may never get it back.
The blue states are staying blue, though losing electoral votes. The attractive economics in top-move cities suggest that red states will gain the electoral votes that blue states are losingβ¦for now, as blue state populations get smaller and older, but don't draw new residents.
For instance, the top seven states for GDP growth since 2020 are red. 8 have seen positive inflow since 2020, and a clear overlap with top move-in destinations like: Tennessee, Texas, Florida, and Idaho. This suggests movers are moving for opportunities above politics. However, it also means the political tide will favor red states with strong economies.
Tennessee
- State GDP growth from 2020-2023, 15.8%
- In-to-out move ratio from 2020-2024, 1.73%
Texas
- State GDP growth from 2020-2023, 15.8%
- In-to-out move ratio from 2020-2024, 1.43%
Florida
- State GDP growth from 2020-2023, 15.7%
- In-to-out move ratio from 2020-2024, 1.55%
Nebraska
- State GDP growth from 2020-2023, 12.5%
- In-to-out move ratio from 2020-2024, 0.84%
Idaho
- State GDP growth from 2020-2023, 11.5%
- In-to-out move ratio from 2020-2024, 1.79%
Utah
- State GDP growth from 2020-2023, 11%
- In-to-out move ratio from 2020-2024, 1%
Wyoming
- State GDP growth from 2020-2023, 10.3%
- In-to-out move ratio from 2020-2024, 1.55%
Maine
- State GDP growth from 2020-2023, 10.3%
- In-to-out move ratio from 2020-2024, 1.96%
Nevada
- State GDP growth from 2020-2023, 10%
- In-to-out move ratio from 2020-2024, 1.19%
Arizona
- State GDP growth from 2020-2023, 10%
- In-to-out move ratio from 2020-2024, 1.17%
But blue states have a lot to be thankful for. With fewer residents, Democratic-backed policies hoping to spread more resources to more residents will get easier.
Residents in blue states already live longer lives than their red-state counterparts, and that advantage might be attributed to political policies from education to healthcare. So, as red states amass electoral seats at the federal level, state-level Democrats in blue states may see their work gain traction, attracting newcomers in the future. They're already seeing benefits.
"Red state brain drain" has meant that educated movers are more likely to head for blue states. Applications for academic positions are down in red state universities, for example, and applications for ob-gyn residencies are down in states where abortion has been outlawed.
The impact of highly skilled workers bucking the low-cost migration trend (heading to popular blue-state cities like Olympia, Washington, or Eugene, Oregon) doesn't make up for the number of lost blue-state electoral votes, but it does bode well for the caliber of services these states might provide and their future well-being, including the inventions they may come to support in new business starts and the health and welfare of their residents.
In 2024, More Swing States Will Be Swinging the Blues
Our 2024 prediction: Deep red states without large cities will continue to get redder, deep blue states will get bluer than ever, and purple states with large job influxes in urban hubs could easily go blue.
Those seeing retirees and sluggish job growth compared to their rate of in-moves? They're holding on to their red state credentials.Β
In the end, changing the politics of a state means changing its demographics, not just its population. And states where Gen Z and millennial workers are making their homes in urban economic centers will have to reckon with changing political tides.
As blue states have found, it's hard to grow when young people can't afford to start their lives in your state. And as red states are soon to discover, it's hard to stay red when your low prices, high job growth, and growing-city vibes are the perfect place for young adults.
This story was produced by moveBuddha and reviewed and distributed by Stacker Media.
