WASHINGTON β Until recently, Lillian Dunsmuir of Bullhead City, Arizona, βdidnβt really think aboutβ Kamala Harris and had no opinion of the vice president. But now she likes what sheβs seeing.
βSheβs funny. I think sheβs very smart. She can speak well,β said Dunsmuir, a 58-year-old real estate agent. βI would feel safe with her because I think she can handle herself with foreign leaders. I like her because sheβs for pro-choice, and so am I.β
Voters view Harris slightly more favorably than they did in July, just after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race, according to a new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.
Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris arrives Wednesday to speak at the Congressional Hispanic Caucus Institute leadership conference in Washington.
The Democratic presidential nominee is now seen more positively than negatively. Former President Donald Trumpβs favorability ratings remained steady, though the poll was conducted prior to the apparent assassination attempt of the Republican nominee on his golf course in Florida on Sunday.
According to the survey, about half of voters have a somewhat or very positive view of Harris, and 44% have a somewhat or very negative view. Thatβs a small shift since late July, just after Biden dropped out of the race, when views of Harris were slightly more unfavorable than favorable. Six in 10 voters, meanwhile, have a somewhat or very unfavorable view of Trump, while about 4 in 10 have a somewhat or very favorable view of him.
Changes in views of national figures like Biden, Trump or Harris have been rare over the past few years. Trumpβs favorability rating didnβt budge over the course of the summer, despite a felony conviction, a close call with a would-be assassin in Pennsylvania, and a new opponent in the presidential contest.
Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, speaks Wednesday during a campaign event in Uniondale, N.Y.
But Trump has prevailed in the past with similarly low favorability ratings. He won the 2016 election despite being broadly unpopular, and came close to winning in 2020 under similar conditions.
The survey also found that relatively small shares of voters β about one-third β say the phrase βwould change the country for the betterβ describes Trump or Harris extremely or very well, suggesting that voters retain some gloom about their options in the race.
βEveryone talks about how polarized we are. I donβt see the election solving that,β said Sean Luebbers, a 55-year-old high school history teacher in Upland, California, who supports Harris. βI donβt see Harris solving that. I think a lot of the damage has already been done, so Iβm not hopeful that the election will solve that. Right now, you might call it triage. We canβt make things worse.β
Still, there are other signs in the poll that Harrisβ introduction to the country continues to go well. About half of voters say that Harris would make a good president, while 36% of voters say that about Trump. Voters think Harris has a better chance of winning the election in November, though a substantial share say the candidates are equally likely to win or donβt have an opinion.
Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris is interviewed Tuesday by National Association of Black Journalists members at the WHYY studio in Philadelphia.
In another potentially promising finding for Harris, independent voters view her a little more favorably compared to Trump, though a sizable share of independents view both candidates negatively. Among independents, 3 in 10 say they donβt know enough to say whether Harris would make a good president, while 1 in 10 say that about Trump.
Opinions about Trump on a variety of attributes are generally more formed than opinions about Harris. About 6 in 10 voters say the phrase βwill say anything to win the electionβ describes Trump βextremelyβ or βveryβ well. About 4 in 10 voters say that phrase describes Harris at least very well.
Voters are more likely to say βwould change the country for the betterβ describes Harris extremely or very well. Theyβre also more likely to see Harris over Trump as someone who would fight for people like them.
Despite attempts by Trump to cast Harris as a weak alternative, voters are similarly likely to think that Trump and Harris are tough enough to be president.
Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, speaks during a Wednesday campaign event in Uniondale, N.Y.
βI think that was his biggest problem β he was a strong leader and they didnβt like it,β Pat Brumfield, a 71-year-old retired administrator from Glenwood, West Virginia, said of Trump. That strength, she said, could benefit the country now.
βI think that we need it,β said Brumfield, who described herself as a lifelong Democrat, but said sheβs become disillusioned with the party and wonβt vote for Harris. βAfter almost four years of Biden barely getting around, I think itβs put a black eye on the whole nation.β
On both sides of the political aisle, Republican and Democratic voters have stronger feelings about their opponent than their own partyβs candidate. For example, Democratic voters were more likely to say that Trump would not change the country for the better or fight for people like them than they were to say Harris would do these things.
Democratic voters now have stronger positive feelings about Harris than Republican voters do about Trump. About 9 in 10 Democratic voters have a somewhat or very favorable view of their nominee, while about 8 in 10 Republican voters say the same about Trump.
Trump vs. Harris: U.S. stock market faces rising risks amid economic uncertainty and 2024 election
Trump vs. Harris: U.S. stock market faces rising risks amid economic uncertainty and 2024 election
Updated
Investors are currently grappling with U.S. economic uncertainty, shifts in Federal Reserve policy, and the upcoming presidential electionβall contributing to a heightened demand for portfolio hedging and diversification. Benzinga examines how current circumstances differ from typical patterns and what this means for the market.
The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), a key gauge for measuring protection against stock market fluctuations, has climbed to around 20, a significant rise from its 2024 average of 14.8. This surge in volatility is a typical pattern during election years, as investors weigh the market implications of policy proposals from candidates, according to Reuters.
However, this year, political concerns are colliding with other volatility drivers, including fears of a weakening U.S. economy and uncertainty over whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. The S&P 500 recently experienced its worst weekly percentage loss since March 2023, largely driven by a second consecutive disappointing jobs report.
Despite the S&P 500 being up nearly 15% this year, the market remains precarious. Matt Thompson, co-portfolio manager at Little Harbor Advisors, noted, "The market is essentially saying, we know risk is elevated, but β¦ we don't know what the problem is going to be."
With volatility already elevated, the typical "election bump" in October VIX futures (which include the Nov. 5 vote) is smaller than in previous election cycles. The gap between the contracts with the highest and lowest volatilities is barely over one volatility point.
Recently, investors have zeroed in on the VIX, especially after its largest-ever one-day spike on Aug. 5, which occurred during a sharp market sell-off. Although volatility stabilized shortly after, the index has once again climbed as the market has grown more turbulent.
Societe Generale analysts recently advised investors to maintain hedge positions for the next three to six months, citing potential volatility from economic surprises, geopolitical risks, and the looming U.S. election.
The upcoming presidential election is amplifying uncertainty among investors. A CNBC survey revealed that 67% of investors believe that former President Donald Trump would be more favorable for the stock market. Historically, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq performed strongly during his tenure. Trump has also claimed that if Kamala Harris wins the election, the market could face a 1929-like crash.
In addition to political risks, investors in Silicon Valley are anxious about a proposed tax on unrealized capital gains, part of Harris' potential economic plan or an extension of Joe Biden's policies. The tax plan has sparked concerns within the tech sector.
Given the rising uncertainty and the volatile market, many investors are seeking alternative strategies to diversify their portfolios beyond traditional hedges like options or futures. One area gaining attention is prop trading firms that use their own capital to trade stocks, bonds, or other financial instruments for profit. Prop trading firms often have access to advanced technology, high-frequency trading tools, and data-driven strategies that allow them to capture short-term gains in volatile markets.
Additionally, retail investors are increasingly using stock analysis apps to monitor market trends and identify potential opportunities within prop trading and other alternative investments. These apps provide real-time data, technical indicators, and stock ratings, helping investors make more informed decisions in an unpredictable market environment.
Diversifying into prop trading or other alternative investments, such as private equity or real estate, can provide an additional layer of protection against stock market swings. Unlike traditional investments, prop trading isn't directly tied to the broad market's performance, which can be advantageous during periods of heightened volatility and economic uncertainty. Expanding into alternatives can help smooth out portfolio returns and provide exposure to different risk factors, complementing the protection offered by traditional hedging tools like the VIX.
In an environment where political, economic, and market risks are converging, diversifying across different asset classes and strategies, with the help of tools like stock analysis apps, could prove critical for long-term portfolio resilience.
This story was produced by Benzinga and reviewed and distributed by Stacker Media.
