With the U.S. congressional midterm elections just two months away, Democrats are arguing democracy itself is now on the ballot. While President Joe Biden has called Donald Trump's supporters a threat to democracy, Trump says the legal and political forces arrayed against him are lawless, sick, evil and divisive.
COLUMBIA, S.C. (AP) โ Under pressure from his Republican rival, Pennsylvania Democratic Senate candidate John Fetterman said this week he would participate in one debate before the November election.
In Georgia, Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock and Republican challenger Herschel Walker are still working through the details of what a debate might look like, though they appear to be inching closer to a deal. And in Arizona, Democratic gubernatorial hopeful Katie Hobbs has declined a televised debate with Republican Kari Lake.
With the fall campaign rapidly approaching, the time-honored tradition of televised debates as a forum for voters to evaluate candidates may be the latest casualty of constant media coverage and powerful digital platforms, as well as the nation's polarized political climate. For some Republicans, eschewing debates is a chance to sidestep a media structure some in the party deride as biased and align with Donald Trump, who has blasted presidential debates. Some Democrats, including Hobbs, have pointed to raucous GOP debates from the primary season as a reason to avoid tangling with their opponents.
Despite such skepticism, veteran political consultant Terry Sullivan defended debates as "the one forum where candidates are forced into answering questions that they don't want to answer."
"They're not going to do it in their TV commercials," added Sullivan, who managed GOP Sen. Jim DeMint's 2004 bid in South Carolina and handled media for Florida Sen. Marco Rubio's 2016 presidential effort. "And in stump appearances, press conferences, they can evade, they can dodge."
And sometimes, Sullivan added, it's the media coverage of what happens onstage, rather than the back-and-forth itself, that can make a bigger impression.
In what "should have been the most boring debate in the history of mankind," Sullivan said that a 2004 panelist questioning DeMint and Democrat Inez Tenenbaum asked DeMint if he agreed with a state GOP platform tenet in opposition of openly gay teachers in South Carolina's public schools.
"That kind of turned the race on its head for the next three months," Sullivan said, noting headlines he characterized as "DeMint wants to fire gay teachers."
DeMint went on to win the open seat by nearly 10 percentage points, a margin typical in recent South Carolina statewide elections. But in more competitive states, Sullivan said, a debate can serve as "a good way to find out where candidates are on the issues."
In addition to winning candidates thousands of impressions in earned media and repackaged video clips, debate footage can also propel candidates' messages far more broadly โ and cheaply โ than could television ad buys, said Michael Wukela, a South Carolina Democratic media consultant and veteran of Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders' presidential bids.
"You're getting that in one shot," Wukela said, of a debate appearance being worth airtime that would otherwise cost millions. "That's like a Super Bowl ad."
Read the full story, plus check out more of the latest news in politics:
Highlights:
- Nearly 1 in 3 Republican candidates for statewide offices that play a role in overseeing, certifying or defending elections supported overturning the results of the 2020 presidential race, according to an Associated Press review.
- As the Justice Departmentโs probe into Donald Trumpโs possession of White House materials deepens, lawmakers of both parties have more questions than answers. Intelligence officials have offered to brief congressional leaders, possibly as soon as next week, senators said, as they launch a lengthy risk assessment.
- Chief Justice John Roberts defended the authority of the Supreme Court to interpret the Constitution, saying its role should not be called into question just because people disagree with its decisions.
- Sen. Joe Manchin made a deal with Democratic leaders as part of his vote pushing the party's highest legislative priority across the finish line last month. Now, Manchin is ready to collect. But many environmental advocacy groups and lawmakers are balking.
- A federal judge on Friday blocked enforcement of a new Arizona law restricting how the public and journalists can film police, agreeing with the American Civil Liberties Union and multiple media organizations who argued it violated the First Amendment.
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The 10 Senate seats most likely to flip in 2022
1. Pennsylvania
Updated
Mehmet Oz (Republican) vs. John Fetterman (Democrat)
Incumbent: Republican Pat Toomey (retiring)
Amid all the viral jeering in Pennsylvania -- whether over cruditรฉs or Snooki -- the real question heading into the post-Labor Day sprint is whether Republican voters will "come home" for Senate nominee Mehmet Oz. That is: Will they show up and cast their ballots for the celebrity doctor, who doesn't seem to have used the summer to try to repair his image after an ugly May primary? That's one reason why Pennsylvania, which Biden narrowly won in 2020, remains the seat most likely to flip this fall, as Oz and Democratic Lt. Gov. John Fetterman vie to replace retiring GOP Sen. Pat Toomey.
But in this critical battleground, which saw visits from both Biden and Trump over the holiday weekend, the race is expected to tighten -- the question is by how much. As it tries to make up lost ground, Oz's campaign has been mocking Fetterman's health in the wake of his May stroke -- an unusual and arguably risky strategy coming from a cardiothoracic surgeon. (Fetterman, newly back on the trail, struggles with "auditory processing," his campaign has acknowledged.) Outside Republicans are sticking to a more predictable script, trying to paint Fetterman, who backed Sen. Bernie Sanders' 2016 campaign for president, as weak on crime.
The Democrat has responded in ads of his own by mocking Oz's "Gucci loafers" and arguing that he couldn't hack it in Braddock, the western Pennsylvania borough where Fetterman served as mayor. "We did whatever it took to fund our police," Fetterman says in one spot -- an example of how Democratic candidates this cycle are trying to get ahead of GOP efforts to tie them to "defund the police" rhetoric.
2. Nevada
Updated
Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (Democrat) vs. Adam Laxalt (Republican)
Incumbent: Cortez Masto
Nevada, a state that Biden won by about 2 points in 2020, remains the seat second most likely to flip. Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto didn't start off the cycle as well defined as other swing-state Democratic incumbents facing reelection for the first time, and she's running in a state with a transient population where economic concerns remain pressing. Her challenger, former state Attorney General Adam Laxalt -- the grandson of a former governor and senator with the same last name -- secured support early on from both McConnell and Trump and comfortably won his primary in June.
But if there's one issue that could work in Democrats' favor come November, regardless of economic conditions, it may be abortion. A recent ad from Cortez Masto uses audio of Laxalt calling Roe v. Wade a "joke." The Republican has attempted to defuse such efforts to paint him as a threat to abortion rights, arguing in an August op-ed that he does not support a national abortion ban and that voters already settled Nevada's "pro-choice" policy. However, both Democrats and Republicans acknowledge that the issue of abortion has some power here to make a difference. Whether it'll be salient enough for voters when they enter the voting booth, however, remains to be seen.
3. Wisconsin
Updated
Sen. Ron Johnson (Republican) vs. Mandela Barnes (Democrat)
Incumbent: Johnson
The Badger State moves up two spots on this list, with the seat now looking more likely to flip than it did in the middle of the summer.
At least two public polls have suggested GOP incumbent Ron Johnson is in trouble against Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, who easily won last month's Democratic primary after his closest challengers dropped out and endorsed him. Barnes was at 50% to Johnson's 46% among registered voters in Fox's mid-August survey, which was within the poll's margin of error. In a Marquette Law School poll taken around the same time, Barnes led Johnson 51% to 44%. In both surveys, inflation was the most important issue to voters, which should benefit Republicans. (Voters who said inflation was the most important issue for their Senate vote overwhelmingly broke for Johnson in the Fox poll.) As it has in other states, the GOP-aligned nonprofit group One Nation has tried in ads to tie "Washington spending" to rising consumer prices. But the Marquette survey found that voters were less concerned about inflation than they had been in June, thanks to falling gas prices and costs -- a positive trajectory for Democrats.
Now that they have an opponent, however, Republicans are going hard after Barnes, arguing that his numbers will look different once they're done with their attacks. The GOP playbook so far has been to try to tie Barnes to the "squad" of House progressives, with the NRSC saying he's "not just a Democrat, but a dangerous Democrat" in an ad about ending cash bail. Wisconsin Truth PAC, a pro-Johnson super PAC, ran an ad saying Barnes "supports defunding the police" -- which the Democrat calls a "lie" in his own spot that features him unpacking groceries.
4. Georgia
Updated
Sen. Raphael Warnock (Democrat) vs. Herschel Walker (Republican)
Incumbent: Warnock
Georgia lands at No. 4 this month, with Wisconsin moving up. While the Peach State went blue in 2020 and elected two Democratic senators in runoffs last year, voters here have otherwise been accustomed to voting for Republicans statewide. That means Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock, who's seeking a full six-year term in November, is in for a tough reelection regardless of the tailwinds his party may be picking up elsewhere.
But the wild card here is his GOP opponent, Herschel Walker, a Trump recruit whom many Republicans had tried to keep out of this race. A new ad from a Democratic outside group uses footage of the candidate and his ex-wife describing how he once put a gun to her head. (Walker has said he has dissociative identity disorder, which was previously known as multiple personality disorder, and has sought to advise people with mental health problems.) Walker has raised decent money -- although his haul still pales in comparison with Warnock's -- and observers credit a staff shakeup for helping the Republican get his campaign on track.
Still, Democrats think they have plenty to attack him on, including his habit of saying controversial or illogical things when he goes off script. While Warnock has worked to build an identity that's his own and to explain the health care, tax and climate law in his ads, Republicans have been trying to tie him to Biden and to blame the President's agenda -- and Warnock's votes for it -- for the pain Georgia voters are feeling in the grocery checkout line.
5. Arizona
Updated
Sen. Mark Kelly (Democrat) vs. Blake Masters (Republican)
Incumbent: Kelly
Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly, who's running for a full six-year term in November, faces a tough reelection because of the ancestrally red state he's running in. But Arizona drops a spot on this list in light of his challenger's struggles. Republican Blake Masters won the early August primary with backing from Trump and financial support from billionaire tech mogul Peter Thiel. But as CNN has reported, Thiel isn't committing to getting him over the finish line -- and Masters himself has struggled to raise money to compete with Kelly. And if he was counting on outside funding propping him up, that's mostly gone for now -- the GOP super PAC Senate Leadership Fund cut its September ad reservations for Masters while it moved money around to Ohio. (It still has airtime reserved in October.)
Masters has earned media attention for scrubbing his website of language that included the false claim that the 2020 election was stolen from Trump, along with a section arguing that the country would be better off if Trump were still president, and some strict anti-abortion positions -- a sign of how Republicans are trying to distance themselves from previously held abortion stances heading into the general election. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is attacking Masters on abortion, with one ad featuring a testimonial from a female voter: "Blake Masters has no idea what I went through, and he has no business making that decision for me."
Republicans, meanwhile, are still hoping the conservative DNA of Arizona, which backed Biden narrowly in 2020, will help their candidate, with the NRSC blasting what it calls Kelly's "radical, extreme America."
6. New Hampshire
Updated
Incumbent: Democrat Maggie Hassan
New Hampshire is the only competitive state with an outstanding primary. The September 13 Republican contest will decide who's taking on first-term Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan -- and potentially how competitive that November election will be.
Retired Army Brig. Gen. Don Bolduc, who unsuccessfully sought the state's other Senate seat in 2020, led the GOP field with 43% among likely primary voters, well ahead of state Senate President Chuck Morse's 22%, according to an August Granite State Poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. That could be a concern for Republicans looking to flip this seat. Gov. Chris Sununu, whose late decision not to challenge Hassan left the GOP without a field-clearing candidate, recently called Bolduc "kind of a conspiracy theorist-type candidate." Besides going hard right, Bolduc lacks resources. He'd raised just $579,000 by the end of the pre-primary reporting period on August 24, compared with Hassan's $31.4 million.
The fear that Bolduc could jeopardize their chances of flipping the seat has prompted outside Republicans to boost Morse on the airwaves, which in turn has Democrats' Senate Majority PAC attacking him. And in a sign of Republican optimism about this race, the Senate Leadership Fund has said it's planning to spend $23 million for fall TV reservations here.
7. North Carolina
Updated
Ted Budd (Republican) vs. Cheri Beasley (Democrat)
Incumbent: Republican Richard Burr (retiring)
As Republicans look to hold the seat of retiring Sen. Richard Burr, they have yet another nominee who has been outraised. GOP Rep. Ted Budd had brought in more than $6 million by the end of June, while Democratic nominee Cheri Beasley had raised $16 million.
Budd won the GOP nomination with early backing from Trump, but Democrats argue he's too conservative for a purple state -- which Biden lost by a point -- and is further to the right than its current GOP senators. (Sen. Thom Tillis, for example, has said he'd vote for legislation codifying same-sex and interracial marriage, a bill that Budd opposed in the House.) Democrats are hitting Budd on the airwaves over abortion, which comes amid the recent reinstatement of North Carolina's 20-week abortion ban. Beasley, a former state Supreme Court chief justice, is trying to run as an outsider. "I like that Cheri Beasley hasn't worked in Washington," one woman says in an ad for the Democrat.
Budd has run hybrid ads with the NRSC that attack Biden over inflation, with montages of a little girl's disappointed face when her mother signals they cannot afford to buy cupcakes. Another features Budd standing on an empty stage in front of a fake banner that reads "Cheri Beasley Welcomes Joe Biden" as the Republican says Biden won't show up in North Carolina because "he's too busy making life harder for you." Beasley still faces an uphill battle in a state Trump carried twice, but Democrats hope that the first Black woman to serve as chief justice of the North Carolina Supreme Court may be able to juice turnout among communities that don't always vote, especially in midterms.
8. Ohio
Updated
J.D. Vance (Republican) vs. Tim Ryan (Democrat)
Incumbent: Republican Rob Portman (retiring)
Ohio switches places with Florida this month, although that could change again before Election Day. At this moment, however, retiring GOP Sen. Rob Portman's seat appears more likely to flip because Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan is running a better campaign than Republican J.D. Vance, who, as CNN reported, hasn't been very active on the trail.
Perhaps even more concerning to Washington Republicans is Vance's fundraising -- Ryan had raised six times more by the end of June. All of that prompted the Senate Leadership Fund to pull ad reservations in Arizona, a state Biden narrowly won, and invest $28 million in Ohio, a state Trump twice won by 8 points. One Nation, the GOP-affiliated nonprofit group, has already been hitting Ryan for supporting legislation in Congress it asserts has worsened inflation.
Ryan has been working hard to distance himself from the national party -- most recently, for example, he came out strongly against Biden's student loan forgiveness plan. He's running on an economic populist message, declaring in an ad that he "voted with Trump on trade," but he's also talking about abortion. He called the decision to overturn Roe v. Wade "the largest governmental overreach into the private lives of American citizens in the history of our lifetime" on CNN's "State of the Union" last month -- one example of how Democrats have been adopting GOP rhetoric about freedom and liberty in their messaging on abortion.
Still, Ryan may soon hit a ceiling of support in this red state, and with more resources coming in from Republicans, Vance may again have the advantage. If that doesn't start to make a difference for him soon, though, this race will deserve another closer look.
9. Florida
Updated
Sen. Marco Rubio (Republican) vs. Rep. Val Demings (Democrat)
Incumbent: Rubio
Florida drops one spot this month on account of Ohio moving up, but the fundamentals of the two states suggest that the Sunshine State may eventually revert to being the more competitive race for Democrats. (Trump carried it by just 3 points in 2020, less than half his margin in Ohio.) Unlike the Republican nominee in the Buckeye State, GOP Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida isn't having the same struggles with fundraising, even though he has been outraised by his Democratic challenger, US Rep. Val Demings, who easily won her primary last month. (She had raised nearly $48 million by the beginning of August compared with Rubio's nearly $37 million.)
Law enforcement and policing remain a big focus of the attacks between them, and Demings' background as a former Orlando police chief provides an interesting dynamic. "I'll protect Florida from bad ideas like defunding the police," she says in a spot that touts her experience fighting crime. "That's just crazy." Rubio and the NRSC argue, however, that her voting record compares with that of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and undermines her law enforcement background. "Maybe she used to be a cop, but in Washington, Val Demings is just another radical, rubber stamp," one of their hybrid ads says.
10. Colorado
Updated
Sen. Michael Bennet (Democrat) vs. Joe O'Dea (Republican)
Incumbent: Bennet
It's hardly surprising that one of Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet's first negative ads in his bid for a third full term is about abortion. In a state that Biden won by nearly 14 points in 2020, Democrats are making the elimination of federal abortion rights a central part of their midterm message.
Republican nominee Joe O'Dea is responding in ads narrated by his daughter and his wife. "When Joe O'Dea says he's American before he's a Republican, he means it," his wife says. O'Dea, who told CNN he disagreed with the Supreme Court's abortion decision, is trying to cast himself as a moderate. But Democrats are quick to point out that he voted for a failed 2020 state ballot measure to ban abortion after 22 weeks of pregnancy. And O'Dea acknowledges he would've voted to confirm the conservative justices who backed overturning Roe v. Wade. (He also said he would have supported Obama-nominated Justice Elena Kagan, who dissented in the high court's abortion ruling.)
Democrats still remember when overplaying the abortion issue cost them a Senate race here in 2014. And Bennet, who won reelection in 2016 by less than 6 points against a challenger without national GOP backing, knows he'll need support beyond the Democratic base to win in light-blue Colorado. He recently criticized the Biden administration's student loan forgiveness announcement, for example, saying it should have been further targeted. And he's tried to convey an across-the-aisle appeal in advertising, with a fly fishing instructor in a recent ad stating, "I'm not a Democrat, but I know Michael doesn't take the bait from Washington."
