Ranking the top 10 Senate seats most likely to flip in 2020
The coronavirus pandemic, a stalled economy and sinking poll numbers for President Donald Trump and down-ballot Republicans means new life for Democrats hoping to take control of the Senate in January 2021.
Republicans hold a 53-47 advantage heading into November's election, which means the GOP can afford to lose a net two seats (and the presidency) while still keeping control of the chamber. Democrats will need a net gain of three seats and a Joe Biden victory in the presidential race to wrest control. (They'd need a net gain of four if Trump wins reelection).
With momentum appearing to be on the Democrats' side (at the moment), here's a look at the 10 Senate seats most likely to flip this November. Note, though, that even the slightest shift in momentum toward the Republicans in coming months, and this list would change dramatically.
10. Minnesota
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Seat currently held by Democratic Sen. Tina Smith
Analysis: If the overall election tips toward Republicans, this seat is in play. Trump lost this traditionally Democratic state by just 2 points in 2016. Smith filled the seat vacated by Al Franken in 2017 and earned the right to finish the term with an 11-point victory in the Democratic "wave" election of 2018. If Trump wins reelection, it's likely because he performs better than expected in places like Minnesota, which might boost the GOP's challenger, who won't be known until the state's Aug. 11 primary.
9. New Hampshire
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Seat currently held by Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen
Analysis: Democrats are fortunate to have a strong incumbent candidate running for reelection in a state that is tough to predict. Statewide races here are always close, including Shaheen's three-point win over Scott Brown in 2014. Shaheen's strengths could help lift Biden in the state as well, which Hillary Clinton won in 2016 by fewer than 3,000 votes. Republicans won't officially have a challenger until their Sept. 8 primary and no big-name candidates have emerged.
8. Georgia
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Seat currently held by Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler
Analysis: There are a lot of moving pieces to this race, which makes it difficult to rank. There are actually two Senate seats on the Georgia ballot in 2020 (the other being incumbent Republican Sen. David Perdue's). The Loeffler seat, though, is more interesting. There are no primaries in this race, which means multiple candidates from both parties will be on the ballot, including Republican Rep. Doug Collins, popular among the base for his defense of Trump during the House impeachment hearings. It's unlikely any candidate will hit the 50 percent threshold needed to claim victory in November, which will set up a runoff in January between the two leading vote-getters. This seat could very well decide which party controls the Senate for the next two years and Georgians will know it if they are casting their votes in January.
7. Michigan
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Seat currently held by Democratic Sen. Gary Peters
Analysis: This seat is likely to move in whatever direction the presidential race appears to be headed. Peters is a first-term senator and one of only two Democrats seeking reelection in a state that Trump won in 2016. Republican challenger John James, a businessman, is a rising star on the right and has begun outraising Peters. This race will move quickly up the list if momentum shifts back toward Trump and the Republicans in the coming months.
6. Montana
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Seat currently held by Republican Sen. Steve Daines
Analysis: Red-state Montana has shown a willingness to send Democrats to serve in the U.S. Senate, even in presidential election years where the state votes Republican at the top of the ticket. Ask three-term Democratic Sen. Jon Tester, who won his 2012 race for reelection the same year President Barack Obama lost the state by 13 points to Mitt Romney. While Daines remains popular in the state, Democrats have a popular candidate, too, in Gov. Steve Bullock. A Montana State University poll released this week gave Bullock a 7-point advantage, but most political analysts give the edge to Daines.
5. North Carolina
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Seat currently held by Republican Sen. Thom Tillis
Analysis: North Carolina is a state with a reputation for hosting tightly contested Senate races and this one will be no different. Tillis won the seat in 2014 by defeating then-Sen. Kay Hagan by a single point. He'll face Democratic challenger Cal Cunningham this time. Cunningham has begun outraising the incumbent and leads in the latest polls. Those polls will likely tighten as the election nears.
4. Maine
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Seat currently held by Republican Sen. Susan Collins
Analysis: Collins has never faced a challenge like she does this election year. She's spent the better part of this six-year term trying to strike a balance between loyalty to her party vs. her brand as a moderate senator willing to compromise. She's cast votes that upset the president and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (no's on repealing the Affordable Care Act and on confirmation of Betsy DeVos), followed by votes that have rankled left-leaning independent supporters usually willing to support her (yes on Brett Kavanaugh and no on impeachment). Her likely Democratic opponent, Sara Gideon, has outraised Collins and leads in a Public Policy Polling survey released this week.
3. Arizona
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Seat currently held by Republican Sen. Martha McSally
Analysis:Β McSally was tapped by the state's governor to fill the seat of the late Sen. John McCain just weeks after McSally lost a close contest to Democrat Kyrsten Sinema in the 2018 race for the state's other Senate seat. Now, McSally has drawn Democrat Mark Kelly, a former astronaut and the husband of Gabby Giffords, in a race to complete the final two years of McCain's term. Kelly has led in most polls since March and is outraising the incumbent senator in a state that's moved closer to the Democrats in recent elections. Trump won the state by just three points in 2016.
2. Colorado
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Seat currently held by Republican Sen. Cory Gardner
Analysis: Gardner's seat is one of only two Republican seats up for grabs in a state lost by Trump in 2016 (the other is Maine). The race was going to be a tough one for Gardner regardless, but popular former Gov. John Hickenlooper's decision to join the contest after his failed presidential bid makes it even tougher. If Democrats are going to take control of the Senate, this is a must-win.
1. Alabama
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Seat currently held by Democratic Sen. Doug Jones
Analysis: It's difficult to imagine a scenario where a Democrat wins a Senate seat in Alabama in a presidential election year. Jones narrowly defeated Republican Roy Moore by 1.5 points in 2017, a year that saw Democrats riding a wave of new enthusiasm and Republicans demoralized by sexual assault allegations against Moore. Jones won't get to run against Moore this time. Instead, he'll face a strong Republican challenge from either Tommy Tuberville (Trump's preferred choice and former Auburn football coach) or former Sen. Jeff Sessions.
Worth watching: Kansas
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Seat currently held by retiring Republican Sen. Pat Roberts
Analysis: The retirement of a longtime senator, uncertainty about who in the party will fill the void and success by Democrats statewide in the 2018 midterms leave this seat in doubt.
Worth watching: Iowa
Updated
Seat currently held by Republican Sen. Joni Ernst
Analysis: Democrats' 2018 success in the state should concern Republicans, but a repeat of Trump's 2016 success and a general shift to the right in recent presidential elections could save the first-term senator.
Worth watching: Georgia (the other seat)
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Seat currently held by Republican Sen. David Perdue
Analysis: Lots of questions surround Georgia as the once reliably red state is showing tints of purple. Rep. John Lewis just gave potential Democratic opponent Jon Ossoff a lift.
Worth watching: Oregon
Updated
Seat currently held by Democratic Sen. Jeff Merkley
Analysis: Things would have to go really bad on Election Night for Merkley to be unseated in blue Oregon. But it's worth keeping on your radar.
Worth watching: South Carolina
Updated
Seat currently held by Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham
Analysis: Some polls are actually showing this race as competitive as former Democratic state party chair Jaime Harrison is raising lots of money. Graham's loyalty to Trump and the state's loyalty to Republicans should save the longtime senator in the end.
Worth watching: Kentucky
Updated
Seat currently held by Republican Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell
Analysis: Democrats, every six years, dream of unseating McConnell. And every six years, they fail. But Democrats are insisting that you should watch this race, so here it is.
Early ballot returns in Pima County surprise election officials
UpdatedEarly ballots are being returned in Pima County at a fast clip thatβs surprising election officials ahead of the Nov. 3 general election.
County officials have mailed a record 505,903 early ballots since Oct. 7. By Saturday, Oct. 17, 191,755 ballots β nearly 38% β had been received by the elections department. Election officials have also received 4,751 votes cast at six early voting sites.
βIβve never seen early ballot numbers like this,β said F. Ann Rodriguez, whoβs served as Pima County recorder for 28 years. βThe one that is a surprise to us, really the biggest one, is our walk-in early voting sites. Our first day we had lines, thatβs never happened before.β
She called for patience as the time between when a ballot is received and it being scanned into the tracking system is taking a little longer than usual.
The elections department is now running two shifts every day, including weekends, to get the ballots processed, starting at 6:30 a.m. and with a second shift at 1 p.m. until 8:30 p.m.
"In most states, once they finish their sentence and they're out, and they're finished with probation and parole, they can vote. And they shou…
βI talked to Maricopa County, theyβre having the same issue, theyβre going to be putting two shifts on. But weβre far out enough away from the election that weβll have time to catch up on this,β Rodriguez said.
On Tuesday, Oct. 20, the elections department will begin counting votes, a process that will be live-streamed 24/7 at web1.pima.gov/elections/livefeed.
Rodriguez encouraged voters whoβve received an early ballot to turn it in.
βIf you decide that you donβt want to vote that early ballot that you received, and you want to go to your polling location, you become part of the problem,β Rodriguez said. βYou have to stand in line, fill out a bunch of paperwork, because the poll worker says that you got an early ballot, (and) I donβt know if itβs been turned over yet.β
Those provisional ballots, Rodriguez said, are then counted following Election Day and after all early ballots dropped off at that location have been dealt with.
For voters taking a trip to early voting sites, the department has plans to open election sites the Saturday before Election Day, Oct. 31. Community members can catch any updates on the Pima County recorderβs Facebook page.
Rodriguez said voters should call the elections department at (520) 724-4350 for any ballot problems they face.
Photos: 2020 Primary Election in Pima and Maricopa counties
Primary Election in Pima County
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An elections worker looks over a few of the early primary ballots at one of the scanning stations during counting at the Pima County Elections Center, Tucson, Ariz., August 4, 2020.
Primary Election in Pima County
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A pair of elections workers look over an early primary ballot as part of the counting process at the Pima County Elections Center, Tucson, Ariz., August 4, 2020.
Primary Election in Pima County
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Elections workers feed primary ballots in to scanners at the Pima County Elections Center, Tucson, Ariz., August 4, 2020.
Primary Election in Pima County
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A poll worker waits inside the Pima County voting site at Morris K. Udall Recreational Center, 7200 E. Tanque Verde Rd., in Tucson, Ariz on August 4, 2020.
Primary Election in Pima County
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Brad Nelson, left, Pima County elections director, helps Lisa Matthews, Pima County election marshal, put up a βWelcome Votersβ sign after it was blown down outside of the Pima County voting site at Morris K. Udall Recreational Center, 7200 E. Tanque Verde Rd., in Tucson, Ariz on August 4, 2020.
Primary Election in Pima County
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After voting, a voter walks back to their car at the Pima County polling site at Ellie Towne Flowing Wells Community Center, 1660 W. Ruthrauff Rd.., in Tucson, Ariz on August 4, 2020.
Primary Election in Pima County
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A voter walks by a polling sign outside the Armory Park Center located at 220 S 5th Avenue during primary election day, on Aug. 4, 2020.
Primary Election in Pima County
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Voters enter the Tucson Estates Multi-Purpose Hall located at 5900 W Western Way Circle, on Aug. 4, 2020.
Primary Election in Pima County
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Gilbert Silva walks through the parking lot of the Valencia Library located at 202 W Valencia Road to cast his vote during primary election day, on Aug. 4, 2020.
Primary Election in Pima County
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A poll worker (right) takes a completed ballot from a voter at the Valencia Library located at 202 W Valencia Road during primary election day, on Aug. 4, 2020.
Primary Election in Pima County
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After placing their vote, a voter starts to place their "I Voted" sticker on their shirt as they leave the Pima County voting site at Temple Emanu-El, 225 N. Country Club Rd., in Tucson, Ariz on August 4, 2020.
Primary Election in Pima County
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A poll worker wearing a face shield, mask and gloves walks outside to check if anyone needs assistance at the Pima County polling site at Ellie Towne Flowing Wells Community Center, 1660 W. Ruthrauff Rd.., in Tucson, Ariz on August 4, 2020.
Primary Election in Pima County
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A voters arrives at the Pima County polling site at Ellie Towne Flowing Wells Community Center, 1660 W. Ruthrauff Rd.., in Tucson, Ariz to drop off their voting ballot on August 4, 2020.
Primary Election in Pima County
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A voter leaves the Pima County polling site at Ellie Towne Flowing Wells Community Center, 1660 W. Ruthrauff Rd.., in Tucson, Ariz on August 4, 2020. Photo by Rebecca Sasnett / Arizona Daily Star
Primary Election in Maricopa County
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A portrait of Ashlee King after she voted, August 4, 2020, at the El Tianguis Mercado polling place, 9201 S. Avenida Del Yaqui, Guadalupe.
Primary Election in Maricopa County
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Anita Cota-Soto washes her hands before voting, August 4, 2020, at the El Tianguis Mercado, 9201 S. Avenida Del Yaqui, Guadalupe. Cota-Soto is a Town of Guadalupe councilmember running for re-election.
Primary Election in Maricopa County
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Voting marshal Gerry Lamanski checks his watch before announcing the polls are open, August 4, 2020, at the Tempe History Museum, 809 E. Southern Ave., Tempe.
Primary Election in Maricopa County
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People vote on Election Day at Nueva Vida Church in Scottsdale on Aug. 4, 2020.
Primary Election in Maricopa County
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Voters walk to a polling station to cast votes for GOP and Democratic candidates for the primary election Tuesday, Aug. 4, 2020, in Chandler, Ariz. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)
Primary Election in Maricopa County
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Voters walk to a polling station to cast votes for GOP and Democratic primary candidates Tuesday, Aug. 4, 2020, in Chandler, Ariz. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)
Primary Election in Maricopa County
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A voter wearing a face covering exits a polling station to cast votes for GOP and Democratic primary candidates, as a polling station workers opens the door for voters Tuesday, Aug. 4, 2020, in Chandler, Ariz. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)
