PHOENIX — The COVID-19 outbreak is going to blow a huge hole in Arizona's finances.
A decline in state revenues plus additional costs to the state should leave Arizona with a $1.1 billion budget deficit by the end of the coming fiscal year, new figures today from the Joint Legislative Budget Committee show.
That's out of what is basically an $11.8 billion spending plan for the state.
But the effects of the pandemic are even more dire.
The new report says that $1.1 billion deficit comes even after the state uses close to $1 billion it was expected to have left over by the end of this budget year on June 30.
There is one bright spot of sorts. The state does have about $973 million in its "rainy day" fund, a special account set aside for emergencies.
And legislative budget staffers said there will be some relief funds coming in from the federal government.
But it also could mean that lawmakers, who until a month ago were planning way to spend what was expected to be a cash surplus, will now have to find places to cut.
Making projections for the state's finances at this point is risky, Richard Stavneak, staff director of the budget committee.
"Those virus forecasts are extremely speculative and changing weekly," he said.
That starts with projections of the effect on Arizona, which as of Thursday had 89 deaths. And Stavneak said the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation is predicting that Arizona will end up with 775 deaths by the end of May.
But that may not be the end.
"There is typically a second wave that comes," Stavneak said.
"The hope is we would be better prepared in terms of mitigation strategies," he continued. "But we're still a year out from a vaccine."
And what that means, Stavneak continued, is that the Arizona economy, driven by income and sales taxes, could take much longer to recover.
Photos for April 1: Tucson gets by during Coronavirus Pandemic
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A dinosaur statue over the doors of MATS Dojo at 5929 E. 22nd St., sports an athletic cup for a face mask in the second week of COVID-19 restrictions, March 31, 2020, Tucson, Ariz.
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A pair of protestors use their car to block west bound traffic on Silverlake to let other protestors make the left turn in into the Pima County Adult Detention Complex during a vehicle based demonstration by #FreeThemAll for the release of prisoners in light of the COVID-19 pandemic, March 31, 2020, Tucson, Ariz.
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Raj Paudel hands a bag of food to a customer at Govinda's to-go-tent located at 711 E. Blacklidge Drive, on April 1, 2020.
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The biggest hit to employment in Arizona came in the leisure and hospitality industry — hotels, bars, restaurants and places of amusement — which alone shed 5,200 jobs.
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John Aldecoa tapes up a banner outside his restaurant, Brother John's, as he and his staff get ready to serve again after being closed since the COVID-19 restrictions were put in place two weeks ago, April 1, 2020, Tucson, Ariz.
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Michael Olivas, right, helps Arnold Vizcaino, City of Tucson Parks and Recreation employees, lock up swings at Gene C. Reid Park, 900 S. Randolph Way, in Tucson, Ariz., on April 1, 2020. The City of Tucson Parks and Recreation employees are going around to all Tucson parks to close all ramadas, gazebos, playgrounds, outdoor fitness equipment, all sports courts and fields, horseshoe pits and splash pads due Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19).
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Caution tape across an entrance on a playground at Gene C. Reid Park, 900 S. Randolph Way, in Tucson, Ariz., on April 1, 2020. City of Tucson Parks and Recreation employees are closing all ramadas, gazebos, playgrounds, outdoor fitness equipment, sports courts and more due to the coronavirus outbreak.
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A "CLOSED' sign and caution tape is placed around a ramada at Gene C. Reid Park, 900 S. Randolph Way, in Tucson, Ariz., on April 1, 2020. The City of Tucson Parks and Recreation employees are going around to all Tucson parks to close all ramadas, gazebos, playgrounds, outdoor fitness equipment, all sports courts and fields, horseshoe pits and splash pads due Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19).
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Vanessa Richards, 18, left, and Ella Dotson, 17, adjust their mortar boards and hair in the window of a building along Scott Ave. in downtown Tucson on March 31, 2020. Due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic the rest of the school year has been canceled. Richards and Dotson are seniors at Marana High School and will not have a formal graduation ceremony. The pair came to downtown to get photos of themselves in their caps and gowns.
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Vanessa Richards, 18, left, and Ella Dotson, 17, take a selfie as their friend, Camilla Hamilton, 17, gets her photo taken by Vanessa’s mother, Chrissi, along Scott Ave. in downtown Tucson on March 31, 2020. Due to the coronavirus, the rest of the school year has been canceled. The Marana High School seniors went downtown to get photos of themselves in their caps and gowns.
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Georgia Goodwin, volunteer, sews masks for hospital workers and the community at Cathey's Sewing and Vacuum, 5701 E. Speedway Blvd., in Tucson, Ariz., on March 30, 2020. Cathey's Sewing and Vacuum have made roughly 2,000 masks, due to Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), in one week for local hospitals in Southern Arizona.
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Along with other volunteers and employees, Paula Sanford, center, volunteer, sews masks for hospital workers and the community at Cathey's Sewing and Vacuum, 5701 E. Speedway Blvd., in Tucson, Ariz., on March 30, 2020. Cathey's Sewing and Vacuum have made roughly 2,000 masks, due to Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), in one week for local hospitals in Southern Arizona.
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Andy Cathey, Cathey's Sewing and Vacuum employee, sews masks for hospital workers and the community at Cathey's Sewing and Vacuum, 5701 E. Speedway Blvd., in Tucson, Ariz., on March 30, 2020. Cathey's Sewing and Vacuum have made roughly 2,000 masks, due to Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), in one week for local hospitals in Southern Arizona.
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Andy Cathey, Cathey's Sewing and Vacuum employee, sews masks for hospital workers and the community at Cathey's Sewing and Vacuum, 5701 E. Speedway Blvd., in Tucson, Ariz., on March 30, 2020. Cathey's Sewing and Vacuum have made roughly 2,000 masks, due to Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), in one week for local hospitals in Southern Arizona.
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Rudy Arriaga, far left, and his mother, Dale, chat with Damian Velez, far right, general manager and Joseph Ashbacher before leaving with their takeout order at Bianchi's Italian Restaurant, 3640 W. Tangerine Road, in Marana, Ariz. on March 30, 2020. The Marana location will closed due to a drop in business.
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A man wearing personal protective equipment works out at FitCore at Morris K Udall Park, 7200 E. Tanque Verde Rd., in Tucson, Ariz., on March 29, 2020.
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Ruby Boulet-Stephenson waters the family's new backyard garden, on March 27, 2020.
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Roccos Little Chicago Pizzeria sports the phrase "Eat the Rich" on its marquee, on March 31, 2020. The local pizza spot is currently closed due to Coronavirus disease (COVID-19.)
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A pedestrian crosses Church Avenue near the Historic Pima County Courthouse in a nearly-empty downtown Tucson during the coronavirus pandemic in spring 2020.
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A bank customer wears gloves while at a drive up ATM at Chase Bank, 8701 E. Broadway Blvd., in Tucson, Ariz., on March 29, 2020.
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While traveling through Tucson, Canadians Lauri Buchanan and her husband Brian Buchanan, left, eat lunch with their friends Rhonda McDonald and her husband Pat McDonald, right, from Wyoming, outside of Whataburger, 6504 E. 22nd St., in Tucson, Ariz., on March 30, 2020. Mr. and Mrs. Buchanan and Mr. and Mrs. McDonald were eating outside due to Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19).
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David Cardinal, a sales associate at The Hub, works with a customer at the gun store located at 1400 S Alvernon Way, on March 28, 2020. The store saw an increase in customers during the last few weeks.
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An employee at The Hub, a gun store located at 1400 S Alvernon Way, works with a customer on March 28, 2020. The store saw an increase in customers during the last few weeks.
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Cassie Phelps, food service employee for Tucson Unified School District, hands two students lunches and breakfast at Harold Steel Elementary School, 700 S. Sarnoff Dr., in Tucson, Ariz., on March 31, 2020. TUSD is offering lunches and breakfast for students due to schools being canceled because of Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19).
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Jolene Luquin, teaching assistant for Tucson Unified School District, organizes educational packets for a parent at Harold Steel Elementary School, 700 S. Sarnoff Dr., in Tucson, Ariz., on March 31, 2020. The educational packets, for grades K-12, include the curriculum for all classes from science to math to history and others. It allows the students, parents and teachers to keep learning despite not being in the classroom, according to Karla Escamilla, TUSD public information officer. TUSD plans to have most of the paperwork online in the next couple of weeks, said Escamilla, as well as issue laptops to students who don't have access to a computer. TUSD is issuing these packets and online school due to Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19).
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After more than a week in isolation, Tami and Tedd Handy get the chance to dance as Mama Coal, Carra Stasney and Tim O'Connor give a street concert on Placita de Zacatal in the Casas Adobes neighborhood, Saturday, March 28, 2020, Tucson, Ariz.
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Mama Coal, Carra Stasney and Tim O'Connor take to the great outdoors along Moonshroud Dr., in Catalina Shadows, Saturday, March 28, 2020, Tucson, Ariz.
