News of Donald Trump’s victory sent the rial, Iran’s currency, to an all-time low. The party may be over for the Iranian regime, which took in more than $40 billion in extra oil revenue during the Biden years owing to nonenforcement of U.S. sanctions. The rolling bribe bought America nothing and gave China cheap oil.
Shock waves from the U.S. election are felt throughout the Mideast, which noticed CNN's report that Brian Hook is expected to lead the State Department transition team. Hook led the first Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” sanctions campaign against Iran, and he has been living under Iranian threats on his life. His presence is a signal that America means business again.
As Iran weighs striking Israel a third time, it must know that its defenses are down after Israel’s recent retaliation — and not only the Russian equipment. The Biden administration can no longer protect the Iranian regime. President Biden’s leverage over Israel has largely collapsed, thanks to U.S. voters.
When Biden deemed Iran’s nuclear facilities off-limits to Israeli retaliation, Trump disagreed. “That’s the thing you want to hit, right?” he said Oct. 4. “The answer should have been: Hit the nuclear first and worry about the rest later.” You can bet that one landed on Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s desk.
The election also sends a warning to the International Criminal Court, which is abusing its powers to bring up Israel’s leaders on politicized charges. America is next on the ICC’s target list. Tough U.S. sanctions against the ICC are all but guaranteed after Republicans take control of Congress.
President Biden and Sen. Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., could stop blocking bipartisan sanctions on the ICC now. Freed from pandering to voters in Dearborn, Michigan, they can head off those ICC arrest warrants, which may be issued shortly. If Democrats don’t, and the court acts first, it will be too late to save the court from the consequences of its overreach.
The Middle East awaited Nov. 5 to determine the conclusion of the war. The election of Trump — who wants Israel to finish up and win, as opposed to handcuffing it and pressuring it to lose — improves Israel’s bargaining position with Hezbollah and Hamas.
The pressure is on them to succumb to Israel’s terms. In one of Trump’s biggest applause lines at the Republican convention, he warned, “We want our hostages back, and they better be back before I assume office or you will be paying a very big price.” That threat is now operative, and the clock is ticking.
On Jan. 20, 1981, during President Reagan’s inaugural address, Iran released 52 U.S. hostages after 444 days in captivity. Today some 50 hostages are believed to be alive in Gaza, including four Americans: Edan Alexander, Omer Neutra, Sagui Dekel-Chen and Keith Siegel. We’re coming up on 400 days.
The 1980 election aftermath could be a precedent to follow for Hamas and its patrons in Qatar and Iran. Each has plenty to lose if a motivated U.S. president wants to act.
