The following column is the opinion and analysis of the writer.
My first big assignment in presidential elections was as field director for fourteen Western states in the 1972 general election. My candidate was Sen. George McGovern, and we lost them all. In fact, the gracious South Dakotan won only a single state, Massachusetts, and an astonishingly low 37.5% of the popular vote. It was a humbling experience that taught me many lessons, the most important being that the passions that deliver a party nomination in summer can plant the seeds for defeat in fall.
McGovern was the chosen candidate of the Democratic left and the anti-war movement of the time. A former bomber pilot in World War II, he became an early and fierce opponent of the Vietnam War. McGovern took other positions out of the mainstream, such as advocating the kind of guaranteed income program we heard about this year from candidate Andrew Yang.
And that was almost 50 years ago!
But the candidate staffed his campaign with some of the most talented political organizers of my generation, led by former Sen. Gary Hart and now Federal Judge Richard Stearns, the fellows who recruited me from Rep. Mo Udall’s staff.
My assignment was to reorganize in each state the leadership of the campaign and, to the extent possible, bring in the establishment McGovern had just buried. To turn a campaign of Volkswagens with peace stickers into one that the limousine crowd could embrace. It was no easy task as the result demonstrated.
History never really repeats itself except when it does. This year the Democratic left is led by Sen. Bernie Sanders who, like George McGovern, offers the heart of a fighter and a series of policies that would fundamentally change American life. In reaction to the extraordinary maldistribution of wealth in our society, Sanders represents the anger of those left out.
He offers free childhood care, free education, forgiveness of student loan debt, “Medicare for All,” and a bright-green program on the environment which includes the end of fracking for oil and gas. The price tag for this agenda is larger than the cumulative national debt of $23 trillion. Sanders offers no plan to pay for it all.
The Sanders candidacy has attracted the impassioned support of perhaps 30% of the Democratic Party faithful, which has been enough in the early primaries to earn wins with the moderates splitting the majority vote among five candidates. If this trend continues and no moderates drop out, Sanders’ bandwagon will grow as it does for all perceived winners. The competition will linger on, but the nomination will go to the Vermonter.
The question for the Democratic Party is this: Is Bernie Sanders the contemporary equivalent of George McGovern? My suspicion is yes, but there are factors other than political history that bear consideration. One is demographics. The country has morphed into a different place since the McGovern licking nearly a half-century ago.
In 1972, non-Hispanic white Americans made up 80% of the population of 209 million. Today, they are 61% of 327 million Americans. In McGovern’s America, Hispanic Americans were 4% of the population and not an important electoral factor except in a few states. Today, Hispanic Americans are 18% of the population and a crucial part of the electorate in many states. The total minority vote in 1972 was less than 20%; today it is 40%. These voters, if registered, vote heavily Democratic and form a solid floor for any Democratic candidate. Victory requires the support of fewer and fewer whites.
According to the Pew Research Center, Democrats now have a lead of eight points in party identification, another positive sign for the party’s candidate.
Arguing against that is McGovern had double that lead in party affiliation. A factor in Sanders’ favor is that the age of ticket splitting is apparently gone or suspended in this era. Moderates seeking to cross party lines and pick up anti-Trump Republicans will find a paucity of them. Voting today is largely tribal and straight ticket.
No doubt, there are political theories that make sense of a Sanders White House victory. And yet what rings in my ears is the wisdom shared by my old boss, Udall, when I returned, bruised from my first foray in presidential elections: “Terry, always remember that in America, presidential elections are won between the 40-yard lines.” It is a sports metaphor that has stayed with me through the years. The highlights may take place at the outer edges, but the real work is done in the middle of the field.
