The following column is the opinion and analysis of the writer:
COVID-19 is a novel iteration of the coronavirus that was first identified back in the mid 1960's. Its symptoms are similar to those of common influenza viruses. They also have similar mortality rates here in the United states. It is true that the COVID-19 rate is twice that of influenza, but on a scale of zero to one hundred, it is fair to say that .2% is similar to .1% — that's .2% for COVID-19 and .1% for influenza according to Center for Disease Control and Prevention figures.
We can narrow the United States data down to school ages, say, 5-to 14-year-olds. From February 2020 through August 2020, we find deaths from all causes in that age range is 3,027. COVID-19 deaths sit at 28, deaths from pneumonia at 93, and deaths from influenza at 51 — again, per CDC data.
I focused on school ages because Pima County and the State of Arizona are wringing their respective hankies over whether or not children should go back to school. The Arizona Department of Health Services, in its "Safely Returning to In-Person Instruction" document, states, "Based on contact-tracing studies performed early in the epidemic, little evidence has been found of efficient transmission in school settings. While children, particularly those under 10, may not amplify transmission within the school setting, special attention should be given to prevent staff-to-staff transmission."
This is an admission that if there is any risk, it does not lie with the children, but with the adults. Some might say, "But wouldn't it make sense to be extra-special, Double Secret Probation careful and keep children home until the virus is 'crushed?'"
The simple answer is no.
First, the virus cannot be "crushed." You may recall the "flatten the curve" effort. The idea of flattening the curve was not to prevent transmission, but to slow the rate to keep from overwhelming the healthcare system. By spreading transmission over a longer time period, the number of cases existing at any one moment would not be so many as to create a shortage of hospital beads, ventilators, etc.
However, the total number of cases would not be reduced, and the virus would run its course through the population.
At some point, that idea morphed into stopping transmission, or "crushing" the virus. The precautions that slowed the spread now became weapons to stop the spread and defeat the virus. That is not possible, and everyone knows it.
Second, there is a price to be paid for keeping children at home and out of school, and it will be the children who pay it. The Arizona Department of Health Services puts it succinctly: "Aside from a child’s home, no other setting has more influence on a child’s health and well-being than their school. The school environment helps with the following: Provides education instruction; Supports the development of social and emotional skills; Creates a safe environment for learning; Addresses nutrition needs; And facilitates physical activity."
Currently, Tucson Unified School District, Sunnyside School District (online only), local charter and private schools, are all offering some form of hybrid/online instruction. Nobody wants to deviate from the lockdown orthodoxy, even though we now have evidence that lockdowns have little effect on case rates from the examples of Sweden (no lockdown) and New York, New Jersey, and Massachusettses (hard lockdowns).
Maybe the old fashioned approach of putting sick people in quarantine is better than the new approach of putting everyone in quarantine. Either way, it is time to start returning Tucson schools to normalcy. The students have one shot at this.
