Here are five key takeaways from the Arizona Wildcats’ 45-20 loss to No. 14 Utah on Saturday. Because of travel and deadlines, we weren’t able to re-watch the game in time to write this piece, so it’s a slight variation on the usual format.
1. POSITION IMPOSSIBLE
This was Utah’s kind of game. Let the other team make the mistakes. Win the field-position war. Play from ahead. The Wildcats played into the Utes’ hands in every conceivable way. They treated the football like one of those slippery fishes at the Pike Place Fish Market. They allowed Utah to control the pace and dominate the clock. The disparity in average starting field position was the largest all season for Arizona – minus-21 yards. The Utes’ average starting point was their 42-yard line. They began three drives in Arizona territory – including one at the 9-yard line after Jacob Cowing’s muffed punt – and another at midfield. The Wildcats’ best starting field position was their 42. That happened on their final possession after a safety and the ensuing free kick. Not many teams can overcome a minus-2 turnover margin, a minus-21 field-position differential and a time-of-possession deficit of almost 16 minutes. Certainly not the 2022 Arizona Wildcats. Their best bet was to turn the game into a track meet – maybe force less-than-100% QB Cameron Rising to do some things he wouldn’t feel comfortable doing. Instead, they made it easy on him.
2. FRESHMAN CONCESSION
Both Jedd Fisch and Johnny Nansen insist they’re playing a plethora of freshmen down the stretch because they’ve earned those spots – that they’re the players who give Arizona its best chance to win. That might be true. But it’s also an acknowledgement that this season is a rebuilding year, even though, at one point, the Wildcats seemed poised to make a run for a bowl berth. (That’s still a possibility, albeit a remote one. We’ll get to it in Item No. 5.) As Fisch observed, there were times against Utah when Arizona had four true freshman defensive linemen on the field. It happened when the Wildcats were using their “Joker” package, which features five down linemen. That’s an extraordinarily high number. Those four linemen – Russell Davis II, Jacob Kongaika, Sterling Lane II and Ta’ita’i Uiagalelei – each played between 21 and 43 snaps. They had moments. Lane, getting his most extensive playing time of the season, had a career-high five tackles and combined with Kongaika for a stop for loss. Uiagalelei recovered the fumble that veteran linebacker Jerry Roberts forced at the 1-yard line. But to expect that group to hold up against Utah’s powerful offensive line, well, that’s just not realistic. If they continue to grow and develop, though, the freshmen will give Arizona its best chance to win – next year.
3. FOURTH-AND-20
Blocking breakdowns put Arizona in a tricky spot early in the second quarter. The Wildcats faced fourth-and-20 at the Utah 34-yard line. Fisch elected to go for it, which, in our view, was the least appealing option. Jayden de Laura ended up getting sacked for a 6-yard loss, giving Utah the ball at its 40. The Utes went 60 yards in five plays to expand their lead to 21-7. Fisch was reluctant to attempt a field goal of 51 or 52 yards, depending on the exact spot. He cited Tyler Loop’s success rate on attempts of 40-plus yards and the fact that he’s never tried a 50-plus-yarder in a game. Fisch mistakenly thought Loop had a 40% hit rate on attempts of 40 or more yards. That was his percentage this season before he made a 42-yarder vs. USC, bringing his mark up to 50%. But let’s assume it was 40%. There’s no play in the playbook that gives you a 40% chance of success on fourth-and-20. Additionally, the weather conditions were benign at that point; we’ve seen Loop make field goals well beyond 50 yards in practice and warmups; and Salt Lake City’s elevation is over 4,000 feet, so the ball tends to travel a bit farther at Rice-Eccles Stadium. Every coach makes calls he’d like to have back. This one falls into that category for Fisch.
4. THIS TIME IT’S PERSONNEL
Our notes on individual players can be found here … The aspect of freshman QB Noah Fifita’s game we like best is his poise. Nothing seems to faze him. That was the case yet again when he entered the game under difficult circumstances in the fourth quarter. ... We weren’t sure it was wise to burn RB Rayshon Luke’s redshirt year. But after seeing him scoot down the sideline a couple of times, we were reminded of the allure of “Speedy.” No one else on the roster can do what he does with the ball in his hands. ... We weren’t surprised that freshman OG Wendell Moe played; we were surprised that he started. Pro Football Focus charged him with only one QB pressure allowed in 16 pass-blocking snaps and gave him the second-highest grade of any UA offensive lineman. That’s a heck of a debut. ... DE Hunter Echols’ sack came on a stunt. We’d like to see more games up front, especially in obvious passing situations. If he’s not going to blitz, Nansen has to do something to manufacture pressure. ... We were surprised to see Gunner Maldonado reinserted at the “Star” spot. DJ Warnell is a more physical player and a surer tackler. This seemed like the ideal matchup for him. But he played only seven defensive snaps, per PFF. ... Safety Jaxen Turner didn’t look right. He lacked his usual aggressiveness in attacking ball-carriers. He’s been battling a shoulder issue. He also had a wrap on his hand. We’re guessing he’s nowhere near 100%.
5. ‘THREE-GAME SEASON’
The theme of Fisch’s postgame speech in the locker room: Arizona has “a three-game season right now.” Ideally, it would be four games, but the odds of the Wildcats winning out to earn a bowl berth are slim at best. UCLA is ranked ninth in the latest AP Top 25 and might be the second-most well-rounded team in the Pac-12 behind Oregon. Can Arizona go 2-1? We’ve thought all along that that was a realistic possibility. Recent results have given us pause. Washington State demolished Stanford on Saturday. Yes, it’s just Stanford, which would easily be the worst team in the conference if not for Colorado. But still: The Cougars’ offense, which had been dormant, suddenly sprung to life. Meanwhile, their defense leads the league in TFLs. Arizona State has proved to be a tough out under interim coach Shaun Aguano. The Sun Devils have split their past four games, and they took the Bruins to the brink late Saturday night. If Arizona goes 1-2 over its final three games – and the lone win is over ASU – most UA fans would deem the season satisfactory. But as of today, it feels like nothing is guaranteed.
