Unless the experts are wrong, Chip Hale and the Arizona Wildcats should be able to rest easy heading into Selection Monday.
Arizona has not appeared in any of the bubble debates ahead of the NCAA Tournament — and that’s a good thing. Every projection from Baseball America and D1Baseball.com has the Wildcats safely in the field of 64, which will be revealed at 9 a.m. Monday on ESPN2.
Of course, nothing is assured until “Arizona” pops up on the screen. The Wildcats have experienced heartbreak in the past — most recently in 2019, when they didn’t make the field despite being above .500 in the Pac-12 (15-14) and winning their last 10 games to finish 32-24.
This year’s team has a better résumé (albeit not as good as last year’s). After going 2-2 in the Pac-12 Tournament in Scottsdale, Arizona’s RPI fell just one spot, to No. 39.
Asked minutes after the Wildcats were eliminated how he felt about their positioning for the NCAA Tournament, Hale said:
“I feel great. We won two. Our losses are against one of the top teams in the country. We played them pretty tough.”
Stanford — No. 4 in RPI entering the Pac-12 Tournament Championship Game on Sunday night — ousted Arizona by the narrowest of margins Saturday. The Cardinal defeated the Wildcats 5-4. Arizona had the go-ahead run on base in the top of the ninth inning.
With a win earlier in the tournament over Oregon, Arizona (37-23) enters Selection Monday with a 10-12 record against teams ranked in the top 50 in RPI — one of several metrics the Selection Committee values. To put that mark in some context, Stanford was 9-9 before facing No. 2 Oregon State on Sunday. The Beavers were 13-9. Oregon, ranked 28th in RPI, is 10-14.
The 2019 Wildcats were 3-16.
Arizona will, at best, be a No. 2 seed in whatever regional it gets sent to; more likely, the Wildcats will be a 3-seed.
In its latest projection posted early Sunday, Baseball America had Arizona as the 3-seed in a regional hosted by No. 15 overall seed Georgia Southern. That was before GSU lost to Louisiana-Lafayette in the Sun Belt Tournament Championship Game.
D1Baseball also had Arizona as a 3-seed, placing the Wildcats in the regional hosted by No. 10 overall seed Southern Mississippi.
Georgia Southern and Southern Mississippi made the cut as regional hosts, the NCAA announced Sunday evening. Stanford and Oregon State are also hosting and are expected to be top-eight seeds. Arizona was the No. 5 overall seed last spring and rode homefield advantage all the way to Omaha.
GCU on the bubble
Baseball America described an upset-filled Saturday as “an awful day for teams on the NCAA Tournament bubble.” One such team is a frequent and familiar foe for Arizona.
Grand Canyon entered the WAC Baseball Tournament in Mesa as the clear favorite. GCU was eliminated in the semifinals by Abilene Christian. New Mexico State won the tournament — and GCU might be on the outside looking in Monday.
D1Baseball had the Lopes as the first team out. BA had them among its “next four out.” Either way, neither outlet had GCU in the NCAA Tournament — despite a 41-19 record and a 7-5 mark against RPI top-50 teams. The Lopes went 2-1 against the Wildcats, winning twice at Hi Corbett Field.
Depth dilemma
The Wildcats returned to Tucson on Sunday not knowing where they’d be headed next. But Hale had a good idea what it would take to win a regional, wherever it might be.
“We're gonna have to really play good baseball, and we can't get that deep into the pen,” Hale said. “We just don’t have enough guys right now.”
Arizona’s bullpen performed well for the most part in Scottsdale, and the Wildcats have won games in which they relied solely on relievers. But Hale knows that isn’t a formula for long-term success — or even short-term success when you’re trying to win a double-elimination regional contested over three or four days.
The Wildcats need to get length out of their starters — basically what right-hander TJ Nichols provided in going six innings against Arizona State on Friday. Lefty Garrett Irvin had an uncharacteristically short outing the previous day against the Cardinal, lasting only 4 1/3 innings. He has pitched at least six innings in 11 of his 15 starts.
Arizona doesn’t have a reliable third starter. Freshman right-hander Anthony Susac struggled down the stretch. Fellow righties Chandler Murphy and Dawson Netz — key figures on last year’s College World Series club — have battled injuries. Netz has pitched well since he returned to action May 19, but it’s probably unrealistic to expect him to throw more than three innings.
In and out
Arizona rallied against ASU despite losing star catcher Daniel Susac to a stomach ailment after the third inning. Susac was able to return Saturday. His teammates never had any doubt.
“I knew he would be ready to play,” shortstop Nik McClaughry said. “Everyone wants to win. If anyone is in that position, they're gonna want to play.”
With a battalion of MLB scouts watching, Susac went 7 for 16 in the Pac-12 Tournament with three home runs and six RBIs.
The Wildcats lost their top home run hitter, outfielder Chase Davis, to a shoulder injury in the first inning of Saturday’s game. Hale is expected to provide an update when he meets with the media after the Selection Show.
