Editor’s note: Each week throughout the football season, we’ll take an in-depth look at the Arizona Wildcats from a statistical perspective. Here’s the latest edition of “Cats Stats.”

The cancellation of Arizona’s season opener at Utah because of COVID-19 left us without any new data pertaining to the 2020 Wildcats. They’re still a blank slate.

But areas of exploration still exist — particularly when it comes to quarterback Grant Gunnell, whose performance is vital to any success the UA aims to achieve.

We all know the big numbers from Gunnell’s promising freshman season by now, as they have been repeated ad nauseam during this endless offseason: 65.2% completion rate, 9-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, 150.18 efficiency rating. All good.

What’s missing in those numbers is context, and that’s what we’re going to examine in this week’s “Cats Stats.”

The thing you have to remember about Gunnell’s freshman year is that his playing time was sporadic. His first appearance came in relief in a game Arizona was winning big. Only once did he start and finish a game (through no fault of his own). Often, by the time he entered, the Wildcats were hopelessly behind.

Of the 155 passes Gunnell attempted last season, 124 — or 80% — came when Arizona was losing, according to ESPN.com. Only 22, or 14.2%, came when the UA was winning. Gunnell attempted nine passes (58.1%) when the score was tied.

His USC counterpart this Saturday, Kedon Slovis, had a different freshman experience. Slovis threw 44.4% of his passes while the Trojans were winning, 36.2% when they were losing and 19.3% when they were tied. More often than not, USC could dictate the terms.

Here’s another way of looking at it: Gunnell attempted 39.4% of his passes when games were within seven points. He attempted 53.5% when the Wildcats were losing by eight or more points and 29.7% when they were down by 22-plus. The remaining 11 attempts (7.1%) came in the NAU game — a blowout win for Arizona.

Although the latter represents the smallest chunk of attempts, it illustrates a key point: In general, offensive coordinator Noel Mazzone didn’t radically alter his play-calling based on score and situation. Gunnell threw the vast majority of his passes when the UA was down because that’s literally when he entered the game.

Did the Wildcats pass a little more than they normally would because they were trailing? Probably. But because they play an up-tempo style, the Cats still mix in runs in those situations.

Let’s break it down week by week, focusing on the scores when Gunnell was behind center:

NAU (W, 65-41)

Gunnell entered in the second quarter of the 2019 home opener with Arizona leading 35-10. He promptly led a touchdown drive, finishing it with a 9-yard scoring pass to Drew Dixon.

After the lead grew to 44-10 on a safety, Gunnell threw a 75-yard touchdown pass to Thomas Reid III.

Gunnell re-entered in the third quarter, with the score 58-27. He led another TD drive, capping it with a 1-yard pass to Bam Smith.

Aside from the general anxiety associated with one’s college debut, Gunnell faced little in the way of pressure in this game. That was not the case in his next outing.

UCLA (W, 20-17)

After Khalil Tate got hurt late in the Texas Tech game, Gunnell was called upon to start against the Bruins. At no point in the game was the gap between the teams larger than seven points. Gunnell and the offense responded to multiple deficits and did just enough to win.

UCLA took a 7-0 lead midway through the first quarter. Arizona answered with a pair of field goals in the second quarter. Gunnell completed 17 of 29 passes for 170 yards in the first half.

After the Bruins expanded their lead to 10-6 in the third quarter, Gunnell hit Smith for a 75-yard touchdown. After UCLA reclaimed the lead, Gunnell completed 5 of 5 passes for 55 yards to set up Gary Brightwell’s 10-yard TD run. That proved to be the winning margin.

In a competitive, close game, Gunnell completed 29 of 44 passes for 352 yards with one TD and no interceptions. He passed his first real test with ease.

WASHINGTON (L, 51-27)

Tate returned against Colorado and had the best passing performance of his career. He followed that up with perhaps his worst performance against a Huskies defense that brought heat from the first snap.

Kevin Sumlin had little choice but to make a change. By the time Gunnell entered in the fourth quarter, Arizona trailed 44-20. He led the Wildcats on a TD drive, completing 3 of 5 passes for 25 yards and rushing once for 6 yards.

The score was 51-27 when the UA offense returned to the field. Gunnell went 0 for 3, but two of the incomplete passes were classified as drops. He finished 3 of 8, including three total dropped passes.

USC (L, 41-14)

A similar story unfolded in Los Angeles. The Trojans pressured Tate, who started and struggled. Gunnell entered in the third quarter with the Wildcats trailing 17-0.

On his first pass attempt, Gunnell threw his only interception of the season. The offense did not pick up the blitzing Isaiah Pola-Mao, who hit Gunnell as he threw. It’s unclear whether Gunnell saw the dropping Kana’i Mauga regardless.

Consecutive unsuccess=ful drives followed. Gunnell went a combined 2 of 6 for 14 yards.

By the end of the third quarter, it was 27-0. After a penalty negated a first-down completion from Gunnell to Cedric Peterson, Lucas Havrisik missed a 50-yard field-goal attempt.

Gunnell ended up leading the only two touchdown drives of the night, with the game well out of reach. He connected with Brian Casteel for a pair of TDs.

Did those happen during what’s considered “garbage time”? Sure. But they were two of the few positives in a game in which Arizona struggled in almost every aspect.

STANFORD (L, 41-31)

The following week, Sumlin and Mazzone committed to a platoon system. Tate would start. Gunnell would come in on the third series. From there, the coaches would play it by feel.

Gunnell entered against the Cardinal with the Wildcats down 7-3. He led them on a TD drive, going 3 of 3 for 34 yards, including an 8-yard scoring strike to Jalen Johnson.

Stanford reclaimed the lead, 14-10. Gunnell’s next series ended with a punt. He went 2 of 2 for 16 yards, but a 5-yard sack set up a third-and-long that he and the Cats couldn’t convert.

When Gunnell re-entered late in the third quarter, Arizona trailed 38-31. The Wildcats advanced to the Stanford 21. On third-and-11 from the 22, Gunnell held the ball too long and took a 14-yard sack.

It was a rare poor decision in a game in which he went 7 for 7 for 68 yards. Gunnell didn’t get another chance the rest of the game.

OREGON STATE (L, 56-38)

The UA defense struggled so badly against Stanford that Sumlin fired two coaches, including defensive coordinator Marcel Yates. The unit was even worse against the Beavers, surrendering a season-high 56 points.

We won’t give you the blow-by-blow of Gunnell’s performance in this one, but here’s what you need to know: The Wildcats trailed by at least eight points every time he took the field; he led them to touchdowns on five of his seven possessions; one of the non-scoring drives ended with a missed field goal; the other was an end-of-game scenario with 2:15 left and Arizona down by 18 points.

Gunnell finished 19 of 29 for 269 yards and two touchdowns. He would get his second start in Arizona’s next game.

OREGON (L, 34-6)

Gunnell and the offense struggled mightily in Eugene. He completed 10 of 14 passes, but they netted only 82 yards. He failed to lead a scoring drive and got sacked five times.

Oregon led 14-0 when Gunnell exited in the first half. It was 34-6 when he returned in the second.

UTAH (L, 35-7)

Gunnell started again, and it was basically a repeat of the Oregon game. The offense couldn’t move the ball until the very end, when the game was well out of reach.

Gunnell completed 8 of 16 passes for 96 yards. He was 3 of 9 before the final drive, which ended with his 7-yard TD run.

*   *   *

Oregon and Utah met in the Pac-12 Championship Game and had the two best defenses in the conference. Many struggled against them. Gunnell had a chance to put his imprint on those games when they were competitive, but the Wildcats were outmanned and outclassed.

How should we interpret his performances in games that weren’t close? On the one hand, Gunnell might have benefited from facing softer coverages from teams trying to protect big leads. On the other, they knew Arizona was more likely to pass than not and faced impossible odds of rallying.

After keeping the Cats within (remote) striking distance vs. Washington and USC while the offense cratered, the defense provided minimal resistance over the next four games. Things could play out that way again this year. For better or worse, Gunnell has plenty of experience in those situations.


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