The Arizona Wildcats return this to the field weekend coming off a bye with a home matchup against UCLA.
Every week, the Star’s Michael Lev, Justin Spears and Alec White will pick the winner of the Arizona football game and others throughout the Pac-12. For in-depth breakdowns of each game, check out the latest episode of the Wildcast Podcast on Apple, Spotify or The Wildcaster App.
UCLA at Arizona (+16): Saturday, Oct. 9 at 7:30 p.m. on ESPN
Who will cover? Arizona (+16)
Coming off a 42-23 loss to ASU at home, UCLA (3-2) rolls into Tucson as a 16-point favorite. The Bruins are 3-2 against the spread (ATS) this season but have failed to cover in two of their last three contests.
Arizona (0-4) is listed as a double-digit underdog for the second game in a row and for the third time this season. Despite being winless to begin the year, the Wildcats have covered the spread against both BYU (+13) and Oregon (+28.5).
Lev and Spears are backing the Wildcats to cover this one, believing the game will be closer than two touchdowns. Meanwhile, White is taking the Bruins to run away with a victory and cover thanks to their potent running game.
Lev on why Arizona covers: “It feels like too much. I don’t love the matchup in a lot of ways for Arizona… However, 16 points is too much for me. I think Arizona, despite being 0-4, I think they do believe in themselves. I think they proved to themselves they can hang with anybody by getting within five points of Oregon into the fourth quarter at Autzen. So I will take those points. I still think UCLA is going to win."
White on why UCLA covers: “UCLA’s Dorian Thompson-Robinson is having his best season as a college quarterback. The issue with him has never been talent, it’s always been decision making. He had 12 interceptions in 2019, he had four in just five games last year. Through five games this year, he has one interception… there’s a lot of factors that worry me about Arizona’s ability to contain UCLA.”
Score predictions
Lev’s pick: UCLA wins 30-24
Spears’ pick: UCLA wins 34-24
White’s pick: UCLA wins 38-20
Over/Under: 61
The pick: Under 61
Based on the guys’ score predictions, the consensus is that the game will go under the total of 61 points.
None of UA’s games have gone over 61 points this season and the under has hit in eight of the last 12 games for the Cats.
Lev on why it goes under: “That’s the highest total on the board in the Pac-12 this week. It feels a little out of wack to me, considering Arizona hasn’t scored as many as 20 points in seven straight games. In order for the over to hit, you need the losing side to also contribute to the cause for scoring. The over did hit with Oregon but that was because Arizona’s offense contributed seven points to Oregon’s scoring output.
Other notable Pac-12 matchups
Stanford at Arizona State (-13): Friday, Oct. 8 at 7:30 p.m. on ESPN
The Cardinal (3-2) are 6-2 against the spread in their last eight games and 7-2 straight up in their last nine, dating back to 2020. Stanford is also 5-0 ATS in its last five road games.
However, ASU (4-1) has covered five of their last six games against Pac-12 opponents and have won six of their last seven at home.
Lev’s pick: ASU wins, but Stanford covers
Spears’ pick: Stanford wins outright
White’s pick: ASU wins, but Stanford covers
Oregon State at Washington State (+3.5): Saturday, Oct. 9 at 1 p.m. on Pac-12 Network
The surprise Beavers (4-1) are in first place in the Pac-12 North and are 4-1 against the spread this year. However, they’ve covered the spread in just two of their last seven matchups against WSU and have lost all seven of those games.
The Cougars (2-3) have covered just twice this season and are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.
Lev’s pick: Oregon State wins and covers
Spears’ pick: Oregon State wins and covers
White’s pick: Oregon State wins and covers
Utah at USC (-3): Saturday, Oct. 9 at 5 p.m. on Fox
The Utes (2-2) are 0-4 ATS this season and are winless in their last five road meetings against USC. The Trojans (3-2) have covered in six of their last nine games dating back to 2020 and have won eight of their last 11 at home.
Lev’s pick: Utah wins outright
Spears’ pick: Utah wins outright
White’s pick: USC wins and covers
Season records
Lev: 8-10 straight up, 11-7 against the spread, 1-3 picking the over/under
Spears: 9-9 SU, 11-7 ATS, 2-2 O/U
White: 10-8 SU, 8-10 ATS, 2-2 O/U
