When Jay Johnson was the coach at Nevada in 2015, the Wolf Pack did not make the NCAA Tournament despite a 41-15 regular-season record.
He called it one of the two most disappointing days in his coaching career — the other being Arizona’s loss in the final game of the ’16 College World Series.
Johnson remembers how devastated his players were three years ago, and he hopes to avoid having to console his current squad when this year’s field of 64 is revealed Monday morning. Unfortunately, the Wildcats are sitting squarely on the postseason bubble.
“Selection day — we want that to be one of the best days of the year,” Johnson said Sunday. “The flip side of it is, there can be a lot of pain.”
Johnson believes his team has done enough to make the NCAA Tournament for the third year in a row. Arizona is the only Pac-12 school to have made it each of the past two seasons.
The Wildcats were weary but hopeful as they returned to Tucson on Sunday. Players bought Wi-Fi on the flight home to monitor conference tournaments and checked their phones for results while waiting for their bags.
Despite a 14-16 Pac-12 record and a sixth-place finish in the league, Arizona has several factors working in its favor. They include:
A strong finish. Arizona won five of its last seven games, including a series victory this past week at Oregon. The UA became the first and only visiting team to win a series in Eugene in 2018. Those who came up short include Florida Atlantic, which might make the tournament as an at-large team, and Cal, which is also on the bubble.
“We left the field yesterday feeling like we still have baseball to play,” Johnson said. “It’s all ‘what-if yes’ until somebody tells us we don’t get to play.”
Impressive metrics. Arizona has a non-conference RPI of 11. The Wildcats went 20-6 in non-conference games, including winning their final 15 in a row. Their non-conference strength of schedule ranks 43rd in the country, according to WarrenNolan.com, and their overall strength of schedule ranks 54th.
Signature wins. Arizona notched a series victory over Oregon State, which is No. 7 in RPI, and a sweep over UCLA, which is No. 25. Despite their sub-.500 Pac-12 record, the Wildcats won six of 10 league series.
The case against Arizona making the tournament is just as strong, if not stronger. Here are some of the factors that could hurt the Wildcats’ cause:
League of their own. Over the past five seasons, no Pac-12 school has made the tournament with a conference record worse than 16-14. Over that same span, three teams that finished 16-14 didn’t make it, including Oregon State in 2016. The Beavers had an RPI of 44. The Wildcats’ RPI is 46.
Head-to-head losses. It’s unclear how much the selection committee will weigh these games, but Arizona got swept by Washington and Cal. The Huskies finished third in the Pac-12 at 20-10 and could leapfrog UA despite an RPI of 63. The Golden Bears went 16-14 in the league and have an RPI of 74. Could the committee justify including UA and not Cal?
Unfavorable outcomes. A handful of upsets in conference tournaments could knock Arizona off the bubble. They include Conference USA, where Southern Miss (RPI of 44) won the league tourney but FAU (32) still could get in; the Colonial Athletic Association, where UNC Wilmington (65) upset Northeastern (35); and the Ohio Valley Conference, where Morehead State (110) stunned Tennessee Tech (21).
D1Baseball.com did not include Arizona in its final field-of-64 projection, released Sunday evening.
“I think Arizona is squarely on the bubble, but a couple of ‘stolen bids’ today probably bumped them out,” D1Baseball.com editor and writer Aaron Fitt said. “For me, their case is built upon two high-end series wins (Oregon State, UCLA), but they were just so up and down, and losing that series to Utah (April 27-29) was crippling.
“Ultimately, as a Pac-12 team with a losing record in conference play, a 5-7 mark against the top 50 and a No. 46 RPI, they’re probably going to miss out, but barely. There’s certainly a chance they get in, though — this could go either way. But if I were a betting man, I’d bet on out.”
Randy’s return
If it makes the tournament, the UA will have an asset it didn’t have for more than two months.
Sophomore left-hander Randy Labaut returned to the mound Saturday for the first time since March 17. On March 18, he underwent emergency surgery for compartment syndrome in his left leg.
Labaut had another procedure three days later. Doctors told him he’d be out for 4-6 months. Labaut basically chopped that estimate in half.
“I felt like I could push it,” Labaut said after Saturday’s game, “and get healthy way sooner.”
Labaut pitched two innings out of the bullpen against Oregon, retiring all six batters he faced. That lowered his ERA to 1.60 in 33 2/3 innings.
Although he hasn’t started since that March 17 contest at Washington, Labaut said he could throw a complete game in the NCAA regionals if necessary.
“I felt really good,” Labaut said of his Saturday outing, in which he threw 20 pitches, including 17 strikes.
That wasn’t the case leading up to his last start. Labaut felt pain in his left leg but thought it was shin splints. As he pitched against the Huskies, he felt increased pain, swelling and numbness.
However, Labaut said, “I wasn’t going to take myself out.” Johnson lifted Labaut with two outs in the sixth.
“He noticed that I was limping walking off the mound — that I wasn’t myself,” Labaut said.
The next morning, Labaut said, his leg was “completely swollen,” and he couldn’t feel part of his foot. He told team trainer Isaac Trujillo, and they headed to the emergency room. Labaut underwent surgery about an hour later, the procedure leaving a scar from his knee to his ankle.
As it was happening, Labaut understandably was worried. Doctors told him he could have lost his big toe or even part of his leg.
“I was scared,” Labaut said, “pretty much crying the whole time.”
Michael Bradshaw, the team’s assistant director of operations, stayed with Labaut in Seattle after the Wildcats returned to Tucson. Labaut’s mother flew up the next morning to comfort her son.
Two months and eight days later – after extensive and rigorous rehab and a declaration from his coach that he’d miss the remainder of the season – Labaut was back on the mound in a Pac-12 game.
“His performance was instrumental in us winning Saturday,” Johnson said. “You’re not just talking about a pitcher, you’re talking about a pitcher with a 1.60 ERA. You could easily make the argument that at the time of his injury he was our most effective pitcher. He will make a big difference in a tournament setting next week.”
Inside pitch
- Arizona’s offense ranked in the top three in the Pac-12 in the following categories: on-base percentage (.393, third), runs (385, second), doubles (103, second), walks (278, first), hit batsmen (75, second) and sacrifice bunts (48, second). The UA pitching staff finished in the top three in strikeouts (446, third) and fewest home runs allowed (26, first). The Wildcats surrendered the fewest stolen bases (15) while throwing out the second-most runners (25).
- Several Wildcats ranked in the top 10 in the league in individual categories. They included third baseman Nick Quintana, who was tied for fifth in home runs (14) and ranked sixth in RBIs (55), seventh in doubles (17) and eighth in runs (49); shortstop Cameron Cannon, who tied for first in runs (59) and tied for second in doubles (21); and pitcher Cody Deason, who ranked fifth in strikeouts (84), seventh in opponent batting average (.216) and 10th in ERA (2.87).
