3 reasons Arizona Wildcats will – and won't – continue their dominance over Stanford

Arizona can take advantage of a vulnerable Cardinal team

The first time Sean Miller took an Arizona team to Stanford’s Maples Pavilion, freshman MoMo Jones threw a 16-footer off the glass with the score tied and the final buzzer going off.

It went in.

The last time Miller went to Stanford, Cardinal forward Reid Travis was seen boasting to his teammates about how soon-to-be-No.1 NBA pick Deandre Ayton “can’t guard me” — while Dusan Ristic rescued the Wildcats with 18 points and nine rebounds to help them win by two.

In between, Arizona’s powerhouse teams of 2013-14 and 2014-15 were out-rebounded and headed for trouble at Maples but pulled out single-digit wins each time.

Just like the Wildcats always have against Stanford in the past decade.

The Cardinal is the only Pac-12 team never to have beaten Miller, a streak of 16 straight games, and the games are naturally even less competitive at McKale Center: In Tucson, the Wildcats under Miller have won eight straight over Stanford by an average of 13.4 points, with no game decided by fewer than seven points.

Is it the matchups? Disappointing Stanford teams? Dominant UA teams? Or the hundreds of Bay Area UA alums who show up at the no-longer-intimidating Maples every season?

Maybe all that. And a little luck.

“We’ve had some really great games at Stanford and … winning close games isn’t always skill,” Miller said.

“Sometimes it’s good fortune, and we’ve been blessed with a lot of good fortune. A couple of those games could have certainly gone either way, but for the most part we’ve taken some really good teams to Stanford as well, and this year is a really tough battle for us.”

Is it? Could Stanford finally end its futility streak against Arizona?

Here are three reasons why Stanford will — and three reasons it won’t.

1. It’s good to be the home team, especially on Wednesday …

The Wednesday game means, after taking the required day off Sunday, Arizona had just one full day of practice at home before practicing and then flying to the Bay Area on Tuesday. The Wildcats also will be sending their retooled lineup into a true road game for only the third time this season, with the UA having beaten UConn but losing to Alabama a week later away from home.

… but Stanford isn’t well-rested, either.

Because it had to play USC on Sunday, the Cardinal actually had one day less of rest, if you can call it that: Because bad weather was wreaking havoc on flights to the Bay Area on Sunday night, the Cardinal ditched their delayed commercial flight and opted to take a bus all the way back home.

Stanford started its winter quarter on Monday ... just an hour or two after the bus pulled onto campus.

2. Cats are vulnerable …

The Wildcats lost all their starters from last season and don’t have a signature win on their résumé unless you count a Nov. 19 win over then-banged-up Iowa State, which jumped in the AP Top 25 poll at No. 20 on Monday.

With a strength on defense for most of the season, the Wildcats didn’t even have that in their last game, an 84-81 overtime win over Utah in which the Utes shot 50.9 percent.

“We had way too many breakdowns,” Miller said of the Utah game. “Sometimes it is scouting and concentration, details, things that are just ‘Do this when they do that,’ and we missed it.”

… but Stanford may be more so.

Travis gave new definition to the term “up-transfer” last spring when he left Stanford — and a potential Pac-12 Player of the Year award — to play a final season at Kentucky as a grad transfer.

And while Miller has four transfers helping fill the experience void, Stanford has 11 of 15 players in their first or second year of college basketball.

Kenpom ranks Stanford the 15th least-experienced team in the nation, which weighs the minutes played by each player on the roster. The Cardinal’s best players, and its grizzled veterans, are sophomores Daejon Davis and KZ Okpala.

3. Stanford is due …

Maybe that luck that Miller is talking about finally runs out Wednesday. Maybe the athletic, aggressive Cardinal bullies its way to the free-throw line 30 times and UA center Chase Jeter fouls out as a result.

“This year, they’re more physical. … They get to the foul line, take more perimeter drives every bit as much as post-ups,” Miller said.

“When you look at a guy like Okpala, a lot of the times he gets fouled and he has a great ability to drive the ball, and Stanford does an incredible job of isolating him. Dajon Davis the same thing.”

… but Arizona’s on a roll.

At 11-4, Arizona is No. 87 nationally in Kenpom’s “luck” rating, a formula that measures the deviation in winning percentage between a team’s actual and expected records.

If that may be too esoteric to consider, there’s also these items: Arizona compensating for 3-of-17 3-point shooting at UConn by hitting 19 of 22 from the line, the Wildcats getting to face Utah in overtime without the fouled-out star guard Sedrick Barefield ... and the fact that no Arizona player has missed a single regular-season game yet because of injury.

Nobody says the dice have to flip over just yet.