When Pac-12 basketball schedules were finalized last summer, Saturday’s Arizona-Oregon showdown looked like a battle for first place between two Final Four contenders.
It still does.
In fact — even after some unexpected early season twists — things at the top of the Pac-12 have largely settled into their expected place at the halfway point of conference play.
Oregon, which was predicted to finish first, can at least pull into a tie for first with the tiebreaker in hand if it beats ASU and UA this week at home.
Arizona, which slogged through injuries and the Allonzo Trier PED saga to rise to the No. 5 AP ranking, is in first place with five of its final nine games away from McKale Center.
UCLA, whose high-powered offense vaulted the Bruins to an early defeat of then-No. 1 Kentucky and to a No. 2 ranking, has slumped to third place after losses to UA and USC.
Then there’s Cal, which was picked fourth, and is in a three-way tie for third with UCLA and Utah at 6-3.
“I really thought before the year started that UCLA and Oregon were gonna be very, very good teams,” UA coach Sean Miller said. “But there’s a lot of quality players in our conference and some great young talented players.”
If there’s a surprise in the Pac-12 at the turn, it’s at the bottom. Washington State, picked last after a 1-17 season in 2015-16, is in seventh place with four wins already. And Colorado, picked fifth because of a deep, veteran roster, went 0-7 before sweeping the Oregon schools at home last weekend.
Then there’s Oregon State, which looked on the upswing after making its first NCAA Tournament in 26 years last season but will host the UA on Thursday with an 0-9 conference record.
While the Pac-12 overall appears to have legitimate Final Four contenders in the UA, Oregon and UCLA, Miller says Cal, Utah and USC also are in contention for NCAA Tournament bids. ESPN’s Bracketology, however, has only four, putting Utah and Cal just outside its projected bracket for now.
“I hope that all six make it,” Miller said. “The ball has to bounce our way in some cases for all six to make it, but … I think our conference is still very much alive to make that happen.
“As a coach, you want the most teams possible to enter the NCAA Tournament. That’s healthy for our future, that’s healthy for our conference, and we have a really strong conference at the top this year.”
Here’s a brief look at each team at the midway point of conference play:
1. Arizona (20-2, 9-0)
Big win: 96-85 at UCLA on Jan. 21
Tough loss: None
Storyline: Trier came back at UCLA, but the Wildcats didn’t play better overall in wins over WSU and Washington last weekend, possibly because of a natural letdown after their L.A. sweep and possibly because of shifting roles with Trier’s return.
He said it: “Honestly, not really (about expecting to be 9-0), playing with seven players all year and getting tired. But we fought through it and we’re here.” — UA guard Kadeem Allen.
2. Oregon (19-3, 8-1)
Big win: 89-87 over UCLA at Eugene on Dec. 28
Tough loss: 74-65 at Colorado on Jan. 28
Storyline: When Dillon Brooks has been on the court, the Ducks are every bit as expected — versatile, athletic, defensively disruptive and experienced — though they still can’t win a game in Boulder (they are 0-5 at Colorado since the Buffs joined the Pac-12).
He said it: “They have incredible talent, but you couple that with coach (Dana) Altman is a great coach on offense and defense. They’re a great offensive team and a great defensive team. They lost one at Colorado but it’s hard to win on the road. It’s hard to keep your guys focused every single game.”
— UA associate head coach Joe Pasternack, who scouted the Ducks.
3. UCLA (19-3, 6-3)
Big win: 83-82 at Utah on Jan. 14
Tough loss: 84-76 at USC on Jan. 25
Storyline: Back-to-back losses have proven that having the nation’s most efficient offense alone isn’t enough, and the Bruins held a team meeting to talk about it after losing to USC.
He said it: “We’ve got to come together and I feel like we went apart and that’s what the team meeting was for. We’ll bounce back.” — UCLA guard Lonzo Ball, in the Los Angeles Times.
3. California (15-6, 6-3)
Big win: 74-73 at USC on Jan. 8
Tough loss: 67-62 at home to Arizona on Dec. 30
Storyline: Three Pac-12 freshmen could be among the Top 10 NBA Draft picks in June, but Miller loves to talk about former UA recruiting target Ivan Rabb, who may be considered for conference player of the year as a sophomore.
He said it: “Ivan Rabb is somebody who’s sometimes under the radar because he’s no longer a freshman and everybody focuses on those first-year players. But how well he’s playing and how good of a player he is — he’s somebody that I’m happy is in our conference, because there aren’t too many frontcourt players who are better than him. He had a big game against Stanford and I can see him hitting his stride down the stretch of the Pac-12.” — UA coach Miller.
3. Utah (15-6, 6-3)
Big win: 86-64 at home over USC on Jan. 12
Tough loss: 83-82 at home to UCLA on Jan . 14
Storyline: Midseason additions David Collette and Sedrick Barefield have helped the Utes stay competitive for an NCAA Tournament bid after losing Jakob Poeltl and two key seniors from last season.
He said it: “We’ve got a long way to go. To reach your full potential, you’ve got to beat teams like this.” – Utah coach Larry Krystkowiak, in the Salt Lake Tribune, after the Utes lost to Oregon.
6. USC (18-4, 5-4)
Big win: 84-76 over UCLA on Jan. 25
Tough loss: 74-73 at home to Cal on Jan. 8
Storyline: The Trojans missed well-regarded stretch four Bennie Boatwright for the first half of conference play with a sprained knee — he’s expected back this week — and they’ve still been slightly better than expected.
He said it: “It’s just a building block. We took a step forward and have to build off it.” — USC forward Chimeze Metu, in the Orange County Register, after USC beat UCLA.
7. Washington State (11-10, 4-5)
Big win: 79-74 at Washington on Jan. 1
Tough loss: 88-47 at home to Utah on Jan. 18
Storyline: With double-double machine Josh Hawkinson and as much experience as anyone in the conference, the Cougars have learned how to win.
He said it: “You can coach them up and we can get into these (Pac-12) battles and everything, but it puts a premium on mental and physical preparation, and mental and physical toughness. In that regard, we’ve come a long way and we’ve done an excellent job of developing our talent.” — WSU coach Ernie Kent, after the Cougars lost to the UA in McKale.
8. Stanford (11-10, 3-6)
Big win: 62-46 at OSU on Jan. 19
Tough loss: 65-55 at Cal on Jan. 29
Storyline: The veteran Cardinal may be meshing with new coach Jerod Haase, but they still can’t shoot very well.
He said it: “I think we’re making progress with our process. There is an ebb and a flow from game to game as we struggle making shots. It’s hard to talk about improvement after a game like this when we’re struggling.” — Haase, after Stanford shot 39 percent at Cal.
8. Arizona State (10-12, 3-6)
Big win: 98-93 at Stanford on Dec. 30
Tough loss: 91-83 at home to WSU on Jan. 29
Storyline: The inconsistent Sun Devils have the worst field-goal defense in the conference and have been forced to rely heavily on the outside shot for offense.
He said it: “Our transition defense was bad. It’s been bad in some other games too. … We talk about the urgency you need to sprint back regardless of a positive or negative play, and it’s just not there.” — ASU coach Bobby Hurley, after WSU beat the Sun Devils.
10. Colorado (12-10, 2-7)
Big win: 74-65 at home over Oregon on Jan. 28
Tough loss: 71-68 at home to USC on Jan. 15
Storyline: The Buffs may be poised for a rebound after playing five of their first seven games on the road, and losing four of them by three points or less, then knocking off Oregon at home.
He said it: “There’s been some days where you wake up in the fetal position and you don’t want to move for 12 hours. Four times we lost a lead in the last minute because we couldn’t get stops at critical times.” — Colorado coach Tad Boyle on SiriusXM radio.
10. Washington (9-12, 2-7)
Big win: 85-83 at home over Colorado on Jan. 18
Tough loss: 79-74 at home to WSU on Jan. 1
Storyline: No. 1 NBA Draft prospect Markelle Fultz isn’t able to lift the Huskies all by himself — or keep everyone off coach Lorenzo Romar’s back.
He said it: “It’s not fault of Markelle. Markelle Fultz is doing everything he can to help us. We just haven’t guarded.” — Romar, before the Huskies lost to UA.
12. Oregon State (4-18, 0-9)
Big win: None
Tough loss: 62-46 at home to Stanford on Jan. 19
Storyline: The loss of Gary Payton II and key injuries affecting Stephen Thompson and Tres Tinkle have sent the Beavers back around the corner they turned in 2015-16.
He said it: “We’ve had a lot thrown at us this year … it’s been kind of hard because we have a young team but we’re very resilient right now.” — OSU center Drew Eubanks, by telephone on Tuesday.
