Scouting report: No. 9 Arizona Wildcats at Oregon Ducks

Probable starters

ARIZONA

G Kerr Kriisa (6-3 junior)

G Courtney Ramey (6-3 senior)

F Pelle Larsson (6-5 junior)

F Azuolas Tubelis (6-11 junior)

C Oumar Ballo (7-0 junior)

OREGON

G Will Richardson (6-5 senior)

G Brennan Rigsby (6-2 sophomore)

F Rivaldo Soares (6-5 senior)

F Quincy Guerrier (6-8 senior)

C N’Faly Dante (6-11 senior)

How they match up

The series: Nobody’s given Arizona a rougher time over the past seven seasons than Oregon, which has won 10 of 13 games during that time — and the past five straight meetings in Eugene.

Last season, however, Arizona didn’t have to go to Matthew Knight Arena because of the Pac-12’s unbalanced schedule and ended an overall seven-game losing streak to Oregon by beating the Ducks 84-81 in a classic on Feb. 19 at McKale Center.

In that game, Arizona had five players score in double figures while shooting 53.4% from the field. The Wildcats also had two key defensive stops in the final 21 seconds, with 7-footer Christian Koloko shadowing Oregon guard Will Richardson until Richardson lost control of the ball and was called for traveling as time ran out.

This season: The Wildcats and Ducks will meet again at McKale Center on Feb. 2.

Oregon overview

One of the Pac-12’s most consistently competitive programs over Dana Altman’s 13 seasons, the Ducks are on the verge of underachieving for a second straight season. Oregon was picked to finish second in the Pac-12 last season but finished in a tie for fifth place at 11-9 and lost in the second round of the NIT.

This season, Oregon was picked to finish third behind UCLA and Arizona but is 3-3 in the conference after a potentially dispiriting loss to ASU on Thursday at Matthew Knight Arena. Before a crowd of just 5,955 fans, the Ducks trailed by up to 29 points in the second half before losing 90-73.

The Ducks don’t have any excuses at this point, either. They are mostly healthy now after a rash of players ran into health issues earlier this season, including guards Jermaine Couisnard (knee surgery), Brennan Rigsby (high ankle sprain), Keeshawn Barthelemy (foot), guard Tyrone Williams (ankle); forward Ethan Butler (undisclosed) and centers Nate Bittle (foot) and N’Faly Dante (concussion).

The Ducks still throw out an array of man-to-man and zone defenses, including a 1-2-2 zone that presses for three-quarters of the court, and they’ll sometimes switch in the middle of a possession. Their defense hasn’t been nearly as effective as usual, however, ranking ninth in efficiency in Pac-12 games and allowing conference opponents to shoot 50.7% from two-point shooting (ranking No. 8).

Offensively, Oregon does its most damage inside, shooting 54.% from two-point range in conference games. The Ducks take an average amount of 3-pointers as a percentage of overall shots (36.3) but hit the long-range shots at only a 23.8% rate in pac-12 games (29.3% in all games).

Two of Oregon’s double-digit scorers, Will Richardson (34.1% overall) and forward Quincy Guerrier (33.7%), are the only significant 3-point threats, with the 6-8 Guerrier actually taking more shots from beyond the arc than inside it. In the post, N’Faly Dante is beginning to finally live up to his five-star high school hype, averaging 13.0 points and 7.1 rebounds while shooting 60.4% from two-point range and drawing an average of 5.5 fouls per 40 minutes. Dante led the Ducks on Thursday with 14 points on 6-for-10 shooting and eight rebounds.

Another highly-regarded post player, freshman 7-footer Kel’el Ware, ranks 39th nationally in block percentage, swatting away an average of 8.7% of opponents’ shots when he’s on the floor. Ware is averaging 8.3 points and 4.8 rebounds overall but had just four points on 1-for-5 shooting against ASU.

He said it

“They’re a good team and they just got everybody back, so it’s always hard the first time they play all together. I expect them to be at their best because they’re going to have everyone and be because they’re playing us.

“They have an identity and they’re gonna try to take away the paint and put you in a tough situation offensively and find their best players to make plays.

“They do a lot of things defensively depending on the game and with when they feel is the best matchup. They had a 1-3-1 (against ASU). They press into a matchup zone. They have a normal man, and do different things with their man. They certainly have the tools to create troubles with teams.

— UA assistant coach Riccardo Fois, who scouted the Ducks

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Key players

Oregon — Will Richardson

If it seems like Richardson is back for his eighth season as a Duck, that’s understandable. Not only has Richardson been a regular contributor at Oregon since his freshman season of 2018-19 but he dished two game-winning assists against Arizona before being stopped last season on the final drive at McKale Center.

Arizona — Azuolas Tubelis

The Pac-12’s scoring leader (20.8)— and second-leading rebounder (9.2) behind only teammate Oumar Ballo — Tubelis can further establish his Pac-12 Player of the Year and all-American candidacy in high-profile games ahead with Oregon, USC and UCLA. The Ducks could particularly challenge him on the defensive end with power forwards such as Guerrier that stretch out to the wing often.

Sidelines

No-fly zone: With Oregon having everybody back in his rotation from a rash of health issues, except forward Ethan Butler, history would suggest the Ducks are ready to take off.

After all, that’s what they usually do under Dana Altman, who was known for annually overhauling his roster even before the transfer portal was a thing — and for ironing out chemistry and roles just in time for a midseason surge.

Except it didn’t happen last season and it might not again this season. The Ducks have lost three of their past five games, including a home loss to Utah Valley, a 27-point loss at Colorado and, on Thursday, a 90-73 game to ASU.

The Sun Devils hit 13 of 29 3-pointers while shooting 52.4% overall, held Oregon to 42.4% shooting and outrebounded the listless Ducks 37-29. ASU led by up to 29 points in what the Oregonian noted was the Ducks’ most lopsided home loss in eight seasons.

“We got beat in every facet of the game,” Altman said. “So, really disappointed obviously. I know our fans are. They should be. That’s not what you expect from our ball team, and our program. Very concerning.”

Altman indicated changes were coming to his lineup and rotation.

“We’ve gotta try some different things. We can’t keep doing the same thing,” Altman said. “We’re going to have to change things up and really make guys more accountable for their minutes.”

Ghostbusters?: When UA coach Tommy Lloyd takes the Wildcats into Matthew Knight Arena for the first time ever Saturday, with Arizona having skipped the Oregon road game last season, he’ll have some ghosts to clear out.

Not only have the Wildcats lost five straight times in Eugene, but they have also not swept the two-game Oregon road swing since Russ Pennell was UA’s interim head coach in 2008-09.

But UA’s 86-74 win at OSU on Thursday makes a sweep possible while the Ducks’ recent struggles also suggests they might be an easier out this time.

Whatever. Lloyd shook his head when asked about those trends.

“Doesn’t even register for me,” Lloyd said. “It’s a one-game deal and it’s probably not going to make or break either team’s season. So we’re gonna go in there and give it our best. Our goal was to come up here and get a road sweep. It’s hard to accomplish. We put ourselves in position, so let’s see what happens.”

Anderson gets a look Having played Estonian big man Henri Veesaar just 10 minutes combined in UA’s games with Washington and Washington State last week, Lloyd went so far as to move fellow freshman Dylan Anderson over Veesaar in the rotation on Thursday at OSU.

Anderson responded with two points and a rebound over four first-half minutes, playing six minutes overall, Veesaar played just a minute and recorded no stats.

He’s got to “play better. Toughen up,” Lloyd said of Veesaar. “It’s not complicated.”

At the same time, Lloyd credited Anderson for continuing to plug away in a season in which Anderson has averaged just 4.7 minutes and didn’t play at all in UA’s first five Pac-12 games.

“He’s really handled not playing much really well, and that’s not easy for (an incoming) high school kid to do,” Lloyd said. “He’s had a great attitude about it, and he’s gotten a lot better. It was fun to see him out there. And he functioned pretty well. He threw his body around a little bit and wasn’t frozen, where maybe earlier in the year he was kind of was frozen – a deer in the headlights — and I didn’t see that today.”

Numbers game

2 — Oregon’s Kenpom rate in height, as weighted by minutes played. The Ducks have three 6-11 or taller players in their rotation while point guard Will Richardson is 6-5.

7 — Oumar Ballo’s national rank in field goal percentage (67.1).

26 — Arizona assists on 32 made baskets (81.2%) against Oregon State on Thursday, after the Wildcats dished just nine assists on 20 field goals (45.0%) in their 74-61 loss to Washington State on Jan. 7.

36.2 — Average minutes Oregon’s Will Richardson plays, the most of any Pac-12 player.

— Bruce Pascoe