The massive cluster that is the Pac-12 men’s basketball race is due for a breakup, and there’s a pretty good chance it happens in the state of Arizona this weekend.
Three of the four teams stuck in a loss-column tie for first place — Arizona, ASU and Oregon — will be here for two critical matchups: ASU will host Oregon on Thursday, then pass the Ducks on to McKale Center for a Saturday night showdown with the Wildcats.
The other first-place team, Colorado, will be hosting USC and UCLA — the two teams that sit just a game behind the frontrunners.
In other words, with only three weeks to go, a total of six teams are lumped within one loss of one another atop the conference.
At least for now.
“This week will separate a lot of teams because we play each other,” UA coach Sean Miller said. “But when you have a conference that’s strong, you have a middle that’s really strong, a top, and … when you look at the nonconference seasons of our bottom teams, and some of the games and moments they have had, we have a great conference.
“It’s very, very obvious we have a lot of teams playing for the postseason, and it should be a really competitive next three weeks.”
Here’s what the top six have in front of them:
Arizona (8-4)
What’s left: Four of six at McKale Center. Home against Oregon State (Thursday) and Oregon (Saturday). Then the USC-UCLA road swing and home games against Washington State (March 5) and Washington (March 7).
Momentum: As bunched-up as the Pac-12 race is, Miller says it’s all about playing as well as the Wildcats can. They can’t overlook any of their next four games: Oregon State, after all, handed the Wildcats their worst loss of the conference season so far, 82-65 on Jan. 12 in Corvallis.
He said it: “The teams that we’ve had that have won the conference or have had a great Pac-12 season, it’s because we’ve kept the focus on what we can control. There are just tough moments in the conference season. There’s tough losses, and there’s big wins. It’s just so much about handling it. Our team this year has done better preparing when we’ve come off tough losses than when we’ve had good moments, and this is a big challenge because we’re coming off of a road sweep. And we have a homestand that features two teams that beat us. So it’s a great challenge.” — Miller
ASU (8-4)
What’s left: Four of six in Tempe, mirroring Arizona’s schedule as per the usual Pac-12 travel partner scheme.
Momentum: The Sun Devils are the hottest team in the Pac-12, having won five straight and seven of their last eight to make a serious run at the conference title. They’re also the only conference team other than Arizona to complete a weekend road sweep, beating Stanford 74-69 and Cal 80-75 last weekend.
Guard Remy Martin earned Pac-12 Player of the Week honors after the Bay Area trip, where he averaged 23 points and 3.5 assists per game while shooting 67% from the field. Alonzo Verge has been central to ASU’s five-game winning streak. Over those five games, the juco transfer guard has averaged 20.2 points while shooting 54.5% from the field (hitting 5 of 10 3-point attempts) and going 24-of-30 (80%) from the free-throw line.
He said it: “As a competitor, these are the games you want to be a part of. Big-game environment. We’ve had them the last couple of years. The Kansas games, the Arizona games. This is on a similar level. I would anticipate it would have an NCAA Tournament vibe to it.” — ASU coach Bobby Hurley, speaking of Thursday’s game against Oregon, according to The Arizona Republic
Arizona State and Arizona are tied for third place and have the same number of home games and the same opponents down the stretch. The Sun Devils have won five straight.
Oregon (9-4)
What’s left: All home games after this weekend. Oregon will host OSU on Feb. 27, then Cal (March 5) and Stanford (March 7).
Momentum: Voted to win the league by a small margin over Colorado, the Ducks have a good chance to do just that if they keep afloat in the desert. If Oregon sweeps the Arizona schools — or maybe even if the Ducks just split — they’ll have a good chance to receive at least a share of the conference title, since they will be expected to win all three of their final home games.
While freshman big man N’Faly Dante remains questionable with a knee injury that has cost him the last seven games, other younger players such as sophomore center Francis Okoro and wing Addison Patterson have continued to improve. Then there’s the leadership and clutch play of Pac-12 Player of the Year frontrunner Payton Pritchard, who is also a national honors candidate.
The Ducks have yet to beat any of the Pac-12’s top six teams on the road, though coach Dana Altman’s late-season record suggests they can: Oregon has a combined winning percentage of 69.4 during the month of February since Altman arrived in 2011-12. The Ducks have also won seven of their last nine against Arizona.
He said it: “It will be an interesting last three weeks. We’ve won a couple on the road, but not played well. There is no sense dancing around it: We are going to have to play better and more competitive with more energy on the road. The way things are shaping up this year, the Arizona trip is as tough of a road trip as there is. We are going to have to bring it.” — Altman, according to the Eugene Register-Guard
Colorado (9-4)
What’s left: The Buffaloes have the most difficult remaining schedule of the top four teams. They will host USC (Thursday) and UCLA (Saturday) to finish their home schedule, then have an extended weekend trip to the Bay Area, facing Cal on Feb. 27 and Stanford not until Sunday, March 1. Then they’ll wrap up conference regular-season play at Utah on March 7.
Momentum: Except for when they blew a 12-point second-half lead at home to Oregon State, losing 76-68 on Jan. 5, the Buffaloes’ season has gone pretty much to plan. Picked to finish second in the league largely because of their wealth of experience, as well as the talent of versatile forward Tyler Bey and the doggedness of guard McKinley Wright, the Buffaloes have lost otherwise only to Arizona, UCLA and Oregon on the road in league play. But they need to sweep the Los Angeles schools this weekend, while saying goodbye to seniors Lucas Siewart and Shane Gatling, in order to get any breathing room on the road in the final two weeks.
He said it: “We have to do our job and prepare and figure out how to beat USC. There’s two more home games. Great tip times. We just need our fans to come out and support this team and give them the kind of energy that I know that they played with (in a win at OSU last Saturday). … It’s time to figure out how to get (win) No. 21. That’s all we have to concern ourselves with.” – Colorado coach Tad Boyle, according to the Boulder Daily Camera
USC (8-5) / UCLA (8-5)
What’s left: Neither of the Pac-12’s fifth-place teams will have to leave Southern California after this weekend, but history says they will need to run the table to win the league. Only once (UCLA in 2012-13) in the Pac-12 era has a team won the conference with as many as five losses.
USC will play at Colorado on Thursday and at Utah on Sunday, then host Arizona/ASU next week and UCLA on March 7. The Bruins will mirror that schedule, but get a more condensed trip this weekend — Thursday at Utah and Saturday at Colorado.
Momentum: The Bruins are the second-hottest team in the Pac-12, winning seven of their past nine after appearing to finally embrace new coach Mick Cronin’s tough, defensive-minded style. They helped defend Arizona to a 3-for-19 shooing effort from two-point range in the first half of their Feb. 8 win at McKale, in what Miller called a “physical, rock-fight type of game,” and overcame 12-point deficits to beat WSU and Washington last week.
USC is one of the Pac-12’s most talented teams overall, but projected first-round NBA pick Onyeka Okwongu has missed the last two games with a concussion. The Trojans are 1-5 against the Pac-12’s top six so far, the lone win against UCLA at Pauley Pavilion. They will host the resurgent Bruins in the regular-season finale on March 7.
He said it: “Everybody’s buying in to everything’s Cronin’s preaching, especially on the defensive end, because that’s what got us back in this (Washington) game. (Of) the seven games we’ve won in the last nine, it’s all defense.” — UCLA wing Chris Smith, according to The Los Angeles Times
