Cats know Vegas hot streak could pay off big later in March

For one of the Pac-12’s Big Three, there’s a shortcut to the Phoenix Final Four available via Las Vegas this week.

Arizona, UCLA and Oregon all enter the Pac-12 Tournament with comparable overall résumés, only a handful of losses each and an argument on why they deserve the conference’s best NCAA Tournament seed and geographical placement.

They’re so close, in fact, that CBS bracketologist Jerry Palm gave all three of them No. 2 seeds entering this week. So close that they’re ranked 3 (UCLA), 5 (Oregon) and 7 (Arizona) in the latest AP Top 25 poll. And so close that they’re 8 (Oregon), 9 (Arizona) and 15 (UCLA) in the NCAA’s RPI.

That’s why the Pac-12 Tournament could make a huge difference in where they go next week. Conference tournament games are normally viewed by the NCAA selection committee as any regular-season games, but Arizona, UCLA and Oregon are likely to have at least one matchup between them, giving somebody a chance to gain an edge.

In other words, if one of them wins the Pac-12 Tournament, they are likely to get a No. 1 or No. 2 seed and stay in the NCAA’s West Region.

That means the difference between facing Gonzaga (still possibly the West’s No. 1 seed if it wins the WCC tournament) in San Jose, California, for the right to reach the Final Four instead of potentially having to play Kansas in Kansas City (Midwest) or Villanova in New York City (East).

“I think the (Pac-12) tournament becomes a huge decider,” says Pac-12 Networks analyst Kevin O’Neill, the former UA and USC head coach. “I think the winner gets the No. 1 seed in the West.”

Of course, thinking that way makes the kind of assumptions sitting coaches typically don’t want to make.

So UA’s Sean Miller won’t.

“The more we win, the better for us, so let’s look at it that way,” Miller said, when asked if he’s aiming to stay in the West. “But part of when you talk about with what region we’re in, you’re presuming we’re gonna get past the first and second round, and it’s hard to get to the Sweet 16.”

While that’s actually a pretty safe assumption — the Wildcats have made the Sweet 16 in four of five NCAA Tournaments under Miller — he has a point: The regional assignment only applies to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament.

The first weekend is all about four-team “pods,” each of which are led by a 1-4 seed that usually gets to play close to home. The Wildcats are expected to lead a pod to first-weekend games in Salt Lake City next week, especially since the West’s other first-weekend location, Sacramento, is expected to have UCLA and Oregon leading its pods.

It’s also true that staying in the West is not always a good thing for Arizona. While the UA reached the 1988 and 1994 Final Fours out of the West Region, it won the 1997 championship out of the Southeast and reached the 2001 title game out of the Midwest.

And in the Miller era,the UA has reached the West Regional final three times — and lost each time.

“I know the history of the tournament at Arizona: Teams in the past have gone to different locations and made it to the Final Four,” Miller said. “It’s so much more about playing your best and hopefully having a matchup that is good for you. All teams have certain styles that they’re going to be more comfortable against and there’s maybe teams you’re not as comfortable against.”

So far, though, Arizona isn’t off to a good start in that category. The Wildcats will have to open in Thursday’s Pac-12 quarterfinals against the winner of a first-round game Wednesday between 10th-seeded Washington State and seventh-seeded Colorado — and the Buffs are on a tear, having won eight of their final 11 games after a disastrous start to conference play.

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Arizona beat Colorado 82-73 on Jan. 7 at McKale Center, the third of seven games CU lost to open the Pac-12 season, but didn’t play them again because of the Pac-12’s unbalanced schedule.

“That first matchup doesn’t make you feel good playing Colorado or Washington State,” Miller said. “We haven’t played Colorado in a long, long time in terms of this season because we’ve only played them at home, and we played Utah and Colorado what seems like a year ago.”

Then, if the UA gets past Colorado or Washington State, UCLA is likely to be waiting in the semifinals just 13 days after avenging its Jan. 21 loss at Pauley Pavilion by beating the Wildcats 77-72 at McKale Center.

If that rubber match happens, though, O’Neill said he likes Arizona’s chances.

“They’ll be capable of controlling the tempo,” O’Neill said of the UA. “UCLA played a great game in Tucson, but it will be hard to match that. If you’re gonna write a recipe on how to beat a high-powered team like UCLA, that’s what Arizona did at Pauley, with what they did on offense and not turning the ball over, swinging it side to side and running back in transition.”

Whoever wins that game better sleep well on Friday night. Because there’s a good chance top-seeded Oregon will await the winner in the championship game. Oregon has the advantage of not having to play both UCLA and Arizona this week — only one of them at the most — and is also the most experienced of the three teams.

As a result, O’Neill said Oregon is his pick to win the Pac-12 Tournament.

“They’ve got guys who went to the Elite Eight last year while Arizona and UCLA played a lot of freshmen,” O’Neill said. “Oregon basically played only one freshman (guard Payton Pritchard) and they have the best clutch player (Dillon Brooks).

But actually, playing both UCLA and Oregon is precisely what the Wildcats should want to do this week. The NCAA selection committee ranked Oregon ahead of Arizona during its Feb. 11 early bracket reveal, and the Ducks haven’t lost since then, while UCLA beat Arizona.

Therefore, the Wildcats may need a pair of marquee wins this week to leapfrog the Ducks and gain the conference’s best placement in the tournament. If they play somebody other than Oregon in the championship game, it’s still possible the Ducks could receive a better NCAA Tournament placement.

There’s also that element of revenge. Arizona was clobbered 85-58 by the Ducks on Feb. 4 in Eugene, and the Wildcats didn’t get a chance to host them at McKale this season.

Last year, Oregon snapped the UA’s then-49-game homecourt winning streak and later beat the Wildcats in the Pac-12 Tournament semifinals.

So while senior guard Kadeem Allen says the focus is squarely on Thursday, you know what has to be lingering in the back of the Wildcats’ minds.

“No one likes losing, and especially by 30,” Allen said. “But you have to take care of Thursday, and take care of Friday before you can even think about Saturday.”

Besides, who knows what Saturday will look like? Even with the Big Three’s dominance this season, the Pac-12 also has fourth-seeded Utah having finished strongly, a presumably angry Cal team that finished poorly, the under-the-radar talent of USC and the rising Buffs.

“There’s always surprises, especially with what’s at stake,” Miller said. “We have a couple of teams that are playing (to get in) the NCAA Tournament and all of us are playing for high seeds. Whoever wins the Pac-12 Tournament, it’s a great accomplishment.”