At this point,Β Arizona may be making more money not playing in the men's NCAA Tournament than it might have by playing in it.
The key is in how the Pac-12 divides up tournament shares equally and in Oregon State's NCAA Tournament run, which may not have occurred had the Wildcats not sanctioned themselves out of the field.
UCLA's overtime win over Alabama put three Pac-12 teams in the Elite Eight, giving the conference $36.4 million total because of its record 18 combined "units" (game appearances). Each unit is worth just over $2 million total, distributed over six years.
Oregon State has guaranteed itself four of those units, but it is possible the Beavers wouldn't have won the Pac-12 Tournament and thus reached the NCAA Tournament if they didn't receive a first-round Pac-12 Tournament bye courtesy of Arizona's decision to sanction itself out of the tournament (of course that's hardly a safe assumption, given the way the Beavers have played lately).
Without OSU in the NCAA Tournament, UA would have had to have also reached the Elite Eight for the Pac-12 to record 18 units. And even if the Beavers had won the Pac-12 Tournament via a four-game run, the potential presence of OSU and UA in the NCAA Tournament might have pushed UCLA off the bubble - reducing the Pac-12's 2021 units by the five the Bruins have earned so far.
UCLA earned five units because it also played in a First Four game, while USC and Oregon will combine for at least seven, and Colorado added two. Adding OSU's four units gives the Pac-12 a total of 18, more than the previous record of 17 set in 2001, when UA, UCLA, USC and Stanford all reached the Sweet 16 and the Wildcats made the championship game.
Since the NCAA will pay out $337,141 for each unit for each of the next six years, that's $6.07 million each year for the next six years, or $34.6 million total. Divided among the Pac-12 teams equally, that's $3.03 million per school. (Although the Independent Accountability Resolution Process will have the ultimate say on whether UA gets to keep all of its 2021 proceeds).
The NCAA pays schools its shares over a six-year period so that revenues don't fluctuate as much year to year depending on how a conference's teams do in any one tournament, so the 2021 season could keep the Pac-12's payouts at a high level even if the conference has a rough NCAA Tournament or two in the near future.
