When Nico Mannion dribbled coast to coast with the game tied and seven seconds left against Pepperdine on Thanksgiving night, everything worked out exactly to plan.
The Arizona Wildcats’ highly touted freshman raced to the right side of the basket and threw up a tricky floating hook shot that bounced off the glass and in.
Game over. The Wildcats won to move to 7-0.
Just like it was supposed to happen, wasn’t it? Mannion, after all, was a five-star recruit and is now a projected NBA lottery pick, the kind of guy who is expected to make shots like that, on a team that is expected to win games like that.
But since then, the Wildcats haven’t often been able to perform in the clutch. They have pulled out only two close wins, against Pepperdine and at Washington, while losing five that came down to the wire.
Arizona is 3-6 overall in games decided by five or fewer points, though that includes a Dec. 14 loss to Gonzaga and a Feb. 6 win over USC that were largely decided before the final minute.
Nine of Arizona's 27 games have been decided by five points or less this season. Here's a look at each one:
“We’ve had a couple of shots around the rim, and we haven’t delivered,” Arizona coach Sean Miller said. “Just haven’t delivered in those one-possession games.”
Miller said “coaching is a big part of that,” saying maybe a saved timeout could help late in some situations — though he also noted that he did have a timeout available to draw up a successful play with 5.6 seconds left in regulation against Oregon last Saturday.
On that play, Josh Green took an inbounds pass from Mannion on the sidelines, faked a handoff back to Mannion and then curled around for a straight drive to the basket down the left baseline.
Green was fouled but missed his two free throws, leaving the game in a 64-64 tie that forced the game to overtime. UA eventually lost 73-72.
“With five seconds left, I think you’re relegated to some form of a drive,” Miller said. “You hope that the drive looks like the one that we got. … I thought it was a great drive.”
Miller prefers his players to either drive or get the ball to a big man in those situations, aiming for three possibilities: a high-percentage inside shot, a drawn foul or an offensive rebound that could lead to another shot.
This season, Zeke Nnaji is obviously the post guy Miller can turn to. He’s never far from Miller’s mind in late-game situations.
“I really believe in Zeke,” Miller said. “Clearly I want to get him the ball as much as we can, and if that’s two seconds, five, eight, 10 — that’s something that we really, really want to do.
“Everybody focuses on the last play, and it’s certainly not Josh’s responsibility that we lost the game,” Miller said. “There’s hundreds and hundreds of plays in that game, but we like to get the ball to Zeke, (at the) right block, left block, charge circle, either elbow, against the zone. In the high post area, he’s tremendous.
“And clearly, being able to get him the ball in scoring position is a big, big deal. A really, really big deal. Maybe the biggest deal that we have going on here at Arizona basketball in ’19-20.”
So Miller has Green the driver, Mannion the scoring point guard and Nnaji the efficient post presence, plus veterans such as guards Dylan Smith, Jemarl Baker, Max Hazzard and Stone Gettings he can also look to for a big shot. Baker hit a go-ahead 3 late in the UA’s Jan. 30 win at Washington, while Smith drove inside for a clutch floater in the paint against Oregon on Saturday, giving the Wildcats a 72-71 lead with 29 seconds left in overtime.
“We have a lot of people that can take the last shot for sure,” Baker said. “I feel like we have a lot of people that can make it as well. And it doesn’t always go the way we want it to go. That’s just how it is, that’s basketball. So we just have to continue to get better and try to convert the opportunities that we do get.”
The Wildcats will need somebody to hit a clutch shot or two if they hope to beat either USC or UCLA this weekend, and during the postseason.
But even now, it isn’t still always apparent to what player Miller should turn when that opportunity arises.
“It really hasn’t been more clear,” Miller said. “It’s something we’re working out. I think Nico’s taken quite a few of them. Go back to the Pepperdine game and he drove the ball full-court and made a great shot.”
While Stone Gettings missed a 3 in the final minute at ASU and Christian Koloko missed both free throws he took in overtime against Oregon on Saturday, five UA players have taken the other shots in the final minutes of the nine UA games that have been decided by five points or less.
Here are those five options, and how it’s all worked out so far in those close games:
(Note: Clutch performance includes field goals and free throws attempted in the final 64 seconds of those nine games decided by five points or less. Stats are from Pac-12 play, reflecting the Wildcats’ most recent averages against similar competition.)
The go-to options:
Nico Mannion
Best shots: Floaters, 3-pointers
Stats: 12.8 ppg, 36.8 FG%, 30.4 3FG%, 77.2 FT%
Clutch performance: 3-7 FG, 3-4 FT
Josh Green
Best shots: Off drives
Stats: 10.7 ppg, 41.2% FG, 31.4 3FG%, 73.8 FT%
Clutch performance: 1-3 FG, 1-3 FT
Dylan Smith
Best shots: 3-pointers, midrange jumpers
Stats: 8.6 ppg, 34.8 FG%, 33.8 3FG%, 60.7% FT%
Clutch performance: 2-5 FG, 2-4 FT
Jemarl Baker
Best shots: Variable
Stats: 5.0 ppg, 35.3 FG%, 30.8 3FG%, 76.9 FT%
Clutch performance: 2-2 FG
Zeke Nnaji
Best shots: Around the basket
Stats: 16.1 ppg, 50.0 FG%, 76.3 3FG%
Clutch performance: 2-3 FG