February has not been kind to Arizona women’s basketball team in recent years.
In 2019, the Wildcats lost their last four regular-season games and barely missed the NCAA Tournament. The next year, they lost two of their last three after star Aari McDonald suffered a foot injury.
Last season was more of the same, as UA ended February with two straight losses.
Then March 2021 happened.
The Wildcats flipped a switch last March, and things changed completely. Arizona made a magical run through the NCAA Tournament, gaining momentum — and adding fans — with seemingly every win. With McDonald leading the way, the Wildcats made their first-ever Final Four, upset UConn to advance to the national championship game and finished a 3-pointer away from a title.
So maybe it’s not as big of a deal that the Wildcats are slumping again as they prepare for the NCAA Tournament’s bracket reveal on Sunday. The UA has lost three of its last four games, most recently a two-point loss to Colorado in the Pac-12 Tournament quarterfinals.
Or maybe it is. Cate Reese, the Wildcats’ top scorer, has not played in two weeks because of a dislocated shoulder. The UA has struggled to shoot, particularly from 3-point range.
Regardless, Arizona is facing plenty of questions as Selection Sunday arrives. Here are three big ones:
Will UA earn a No. 4 seed and host the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament?
A: The NCAA Tournament selection committee’s last reveal of the Top 16 teams was two weeks ago. That day, the Wildcats were listed as the No. 11 overall team — good enough for a No. 3 NCAA Tournament seed.
Since then, Arizona lost two of three games and dropped to No. 20 in both the AP and USA Today/WBCA Coaches polls. The Wildcats are 19th in the latest NET rankings — a metric that the NCAA uses to place teams in the tournament.
The top 16 teams typically host the first two rounds.
As Selection Sunday arrives, however, things may not be as bad as the rankings indicate. ESPN bracketologist Charlie Creme moved the Wildcats to a No. 4 seed last week, and they’ve held steady in his predictions since then.
The selection committee will likely some of Arizona’s successes into consideration. The UA beat then-No. 6 Louisville in nonconference play; boasts the Pac-12’s top scoring defense, holding opponents to 56.8 points per game; endured a lengthy COVID-19 pause; and withstood injuries to both Reese and center Lauren Ware (dislocated kneecap). Health affected the Wildcats throughout the season — their first loss of the season, at USC, came with Ware and Shaina Pellington out due to injury and illness, respectively.
The smart money is on Arizona making the top 16 — if just barely. Should it happen, the Wildcats would host the NCAA Tournament for the first time during the Adia Barnes era.
Arizona forward Cate Reese watches as her team warms up before their Feb. 24 loss to UCLA. The Wildcats forward is practicing after suffering a dislocated shoulder, indicating that she could play in the NCAA Tournament.
Is Reese healthy? If so, how much will she really play?
A: If photos and videos being posted to the UA’s social media accounts are any indication, Reese is ready to play. The Wildcats have shown her shooting over the last week, and a report from The Athletic cited a source saying Reese was 100%.
If Reese is indeed returning, how many minutes can she handle — and how effective will she be?
Practices and games are different. It may take Reese a while to get her game legs back. Her shooting form seems fine, even though the right-handed Reese is dealing with a right shoulder injury.
Arizona is outwardly optimistic that Reese will be fine. But it might be too much to expect Reese to play 27 minutes a game, like she did before the injury, and match her 14-plus points and 6-plus rebounds per game averages.
Where will the Wildcats’ offense come from?
A: McDonald averaged 25 points per game in last year’s NCAA Tournament. Now that she’s gone, how do will Arizona replace those points?
Veterans Sam Thomas, Bendu Yeaney and Pellington have stepped up at various points this season. Pellington, McDonald’s replacement at point guard, has hit two buzzer-beating game-winners. Yeaney took over in the Louisville win and seems to have a knack for knocking down 3-pointers when her team needs it. Thomas is one of the most consistent Wildcats and the most effective 3-point shooter, firing at a 43% clip this season. All three Wildcats know what it’s like to play on the last day of the season, which should only help in this year’s tournament.
Arizona also has two long-distance specialists, Taylor Chavez and Madi Conner. Both have shown that when they are feeling it, they can change the course of a game.
Rim shots
Thomas will host a “Meet & Greet, Shop & Eat” on Sunday at Trident Pizza Pub, 446 N. Campbell Ave., Unut 100. The event runs from 5-7 p.m.; Thomas will be selling items from her new clothing line.
Maya Nnaji and Paris Clark, members of Arizona’s 2022 recruiting class, were both named Gatorade Girls Basketball Players of the Year for their states — Nnaji for Minnesota and Clark for New York.
