When the NCAA selection committee pulls back the curtains Saturday morning for the first time ever before Selection Sunday, the Pac-12 is almost certain to have three teams appear.
Arizona, UCLA and Oregon are projected to be among the first 16 overall teams to be invited. The committee will reveal the best 16 teams — the top four seeds in four regions — at 10:30 a.m. on Ch. 13.
But the committee won’t reveal any other seeds because of time constraints — committee chair Mark Hollis said that would be “nearly impossible for the committee” — so that means that the status of the conference’s three other tournament contenders will still be anyone’s guess.
Among them is Cal, which will be entering McKale Center on Saturday night looking for the kind of signature victory that can pull them safely inside the bubble they are currently projected to be on.
Bracketologists have the Bears inside the bubble as of now: CBS has the Bears as a No. 8 seed in the West. and ESPN pegs them as a No. 10 seed in the East and one of the last four teams in the field.
Then there’s USC, which has lost only four games but is being dragged down by a nonconference schedule Kenpom rates 270th in the nation. And maybe Utah, which may eventually have an argument but remains outside the projections at 16-8.
UA coach Sean Miller said he hopes the Pac-12 can get all six teams in. Veteran teams such as Colorado and Stanford could also hope for a long-shot run to get in via the Pac-12 Tournament title.
“The ball has to bounce our way in some cases for all six to make it,” Miller said last week. “But if you look at Cal, USC, Utah, UCLA, Arizona and Oregon, and certainly other teams can get hot and win the Pac-12 Tournament. … I think our conference is still very much alive to make that happen.”
It especially has to take a crazy bounce for Utah, which has an RPI of 80 and a record of 1-6 against teams in the Sagarin Top 50.
“We’ve got a lot” of work to do, Utah coach Larry Krystkowiak said. “There’s no magic number that all of a sudden gets us in, so obviously we’ve got to win a lion’s share of our games left. … There’s probably plenty of scenarios out there where no matter what we’re not an NCAA Tournament team. But all I’m focused on is the things I can control, and hopefully that’s going to be enough to get us some consideration.”
The Utes may also have a little bit of hope, too, based on recent sports history.
“It seems to be a little bit the year of the comeback,” Krystkowiak said. “I shared with our team that the Cubs came back, the Cavs came back and the Pats came back, and nobody gave them much of a chance.”
Here’s how the Pac-12’s six NCAA Tournament candidates look as of now:
ARIZONA
Record: 22-3, 11-1 (first)
RPI: 9
Power ratings: 19 (Sagarin), 22 (Kenpom), 22 (ESPN)
Bracket projections: No. 2 West (ESPN), No. 2 West (CBS)
Remaining: Cal, at WSU, at UW, USC, UCLA, at ASU
OREGON
Record: 21-4, 10-2 (second)
RPI: 11
Power ratings: 15 (Sagarin), 19 (Kenpom), 13 (ESPN)
Projections: No. 2 Midwest (ESPN), No. 3 East (CBS)
Remaining: at USC, Utah, Colorado, at Cal, at Stanford, at OSU
UCLA
Record: 22-3, 9-3 (third, tie)
RPI: 21
Power ratings: 14 (Sagarin), 18 (Kenpom), 12 (ESPN)
Projections: No. 4 South (ESPN), No. 2 Midwest (CBS)
Remaining: OSU, USC, at ASU, at UA, UW, WSU
CALIFORNIA
Record: 18-6, 9-3 (third, tie)
RPI: 36
Power ratings: 41 (Sagarin), 47 (Kenpom), 46 (ESPN)
Projections: No. 10 East (ESPN), No. 8 West (CBS)
Remaining: at UA, at Stanford, OSU, Oregon, at Utah, at Colorado
USC
Record: 21-4, 8-4 (fifth)
RPI: 28
Power ratings: 49 (Sagarin), 55 (Kenpom), 52 (ESPN)
Projections: No. 7 South (ESPN), No. 7 East (CBS)
Remaining: Oregon, at UCLA, at UA, at ASU, WSU, Washington
UTAH
Record: 16-8, 7-5 (sixth)
RPI: 80
Power ratings: 47 (Sagarin), 49 (Kenpom), 60 (ESPN)
Projections: Not projected in ESPN or CBS brackets
Remaining: Washington, at Oregon, at OSU, at Colorado, Cal, Stanford.
