On Twitter and one analyst’s database alike, the recruiting world is giving off a business-as-usual buzz this spring.
Current college players announce they are transferring. Or that they are going pro. Recruits announce offers received, lists of schools they may play for and even, in some cases, commitments given.
In the span of just five days, for example, Arizona surfaced as a reported finalist for Utah Valley grad transfer Isaiah White — then lost out on him to USC, where White committed Friday.
“I have not quantified it,” 247Sports.com analyst Jerry Meyer said of the national recruiting scene, “but it feels pretty active.”
Things are so busy nationally that, well, there might even be some rule-breaking going on.
Jon Duncan, an NCAA vice president for enforcement, told Sports Illustrated in a report published Friday that he had “heard recruiting is continuing” beyond the allowable limits of the NCAA’s temporarily imposed dead period through April 15. The dead period prohibits all in-person contact and evaluation but allows text messaging and phone calls.
Yet below the surface of all that, the recruiting world is changing significantly — at least temporarily.
Especially with programs such as Arizona, which once again needs a frantic spring recruiting effort to complete its 2020-21 roster. The Wildcats have only eight players lined up for next season so far — a number that drops to seven if guard Brandon Williams does not return. Arizona somehow needs to find another five or six more guys.
The most immediate hurdle is the dead period.
While much of recruiting is done electronically anyway, the in-person work is often critical to the final stages of recruitment — a late-spring scholarship offer from a coach who just stopped by or a campus visit that leads to a player’s commitment.
In turn, that means delays or chances taken — by the coaches who are extending offers and the players who are deciding where to go.
“There might be less-informed decisions that could lead to more transfers; I don’t know,” Meyer said. “It’s going to reduce the data and information to make decisions on both sides.”
Even if the NCAA suddenly gives coaches the OK to start traveling again in mid-April, they may not be able to do so.
“The majority of the coaches I’ve spoken with are not planning on being allowed to be on the road anytime soon,” said Josh Gershon, a Southern California-based 247Sports.com analyst.
“Regardless of what the NCAA comes up with, you’re gonna have schools that aren’t going to allow their coaches out.”
Video can only make up some of the difference.
NCAA rules allow unsigned high school players to play club-ball events through July. But showcases are being canceled for the two open-evaluation weekends in late April, meaning those players won’t have a stage to attract coaches who instead may rely on old video.
Video could be even more critical if Arizona again wades into international recruiting waters.
“That’s where the visit situation hurts because there’s no visits allowed in general right now, and you still have laws about traveling internationally between countries,” Gershon said. “I don’t know how that will be sorted out for anyone that Arizona could be in on.”
It’s a risky strategy, as Arizona found out in 2018. The Wildcats offered a scholarship that spring to Belgian wing Omar Thielemans based largely on video highlights … and Thielemans was gone by October.
While the transfer market offers coaches a way to recruit known commodities without having to further scout them, it’s an option virtually everyone is diving into.
Joshua Morgan is a prime example.
Morgan, a 6-foot-11-inch center from Sacramento, had only one major scholarship as a senior at Sheldon High School, Gershon said. Morgan went to Long Beach State, where he averaged 8.4 points and 6.1 rebounds per game as a freshman — then announced he was transferring.
“He was just begging for a scholarship” last year, Gershon says. “I think he’s going to look at his options now and be pretty happy.”
Arizona reportedly contacted “sit-out” transfers such as Trey Wertz of Santa Clara, along with immediately eligible grad transfers such as White, Gardner-Webb guard Nate Johnson and Columbia guard Mike Smith.
The Wildcats also know well the remaining high school targets they have been following for years, most notably multi-skilled California wing Ziaire Williams and Minnesota guard Kerwin Walton, a former teammate of UA freshman Zeke Nnaji.
But Stanford and USC are believed to be the leaders for Williams, and North Carolina has moved in strongly with Walton, who is also considering Iowa State, Vanderbilt, Georgetown and home-state choice Minnesota.
Considering the coronavirus’ impact on the entire world right now, having out-of-state recruits opt to stay closer to home is yet another obstacle the Wildcats might be facing.
“There’s no question there’s going to be families with parents that want their kids as close to them as possible” because of the pandemic, Gershon says. “Whether that’s a 5% increase or a 25% increase, I could never guess. But I think it’s very logical to assume that there’s going to be some changes to the way people operate.”
Then there’s the NCAA investigation that still looms over Arizona. Duncan told Sports Illustrated that a “small number” of cases will be slowed because of the pandemic while UA, Louisville, Alabama and LSU still await notices of allegations.
All that adds even more uncertainty to explain to recruits, who might not decide whether to attend Arizona or somewhere else until deep into the summer.
“I would assume that everything will be pushed back like everything else in society,” Meyer said. “You really don’t have to make a decision until school starts.”
