Every Pac-12 team's resume after a miserable nonconference showing

Wide-open Pac-12 is flawed — but could be fun to watch

If there’s anything Pac-12 teams can look forward to after their collectively miserable nonconference season, it’s that just about anyone can make a run for the conference title.

Maybe that will make it fun, at least.

“I think we’re going to have a very interesting two months,” said UCLA coach Steve Alford, whose Bruins have lost four in a row after Liberty beat them 73-58 on Saturday. “Maybe the difference from last year was that you had kind of a clear-cut team in Arizona that everyone felt would be dominant and they had one of those years.

“This year, although there’s some quality teams, there’s always going to be questions of how you sustain things over a two-and-a-half-month period and we’re in that mix as well.”

Alford says the Pac-12 appears as open as in any of the five previous seasons he’s coached at UCLA, and he could have a point.

Picked to finish second, the Bruins have six losses already, including home games against Belmont and Liberty. Meanwhile, league favorite Oregon has been plagued by injuries and role-filling issues, Washington hasn’t wowed despite returning nearly everyone from a 21-win team and being picked third, while Arizona has produced decidedly mixed results after being picked fourth.

Then there’s ASU, which put together what was by far the league’s best nonconference resume in part by beating top-ranked Kansas ... and then lost at home to Princeton on Saturday.

Everybody appears flawed.

Part of the problem, the way Washington State coach Ernie Kent sees it, is the heavy rotation transition many league teams are facing. Only USC (four) and Washington (five) returned more than three starters while Arizona brought back zero.

“I think all the teams still have work to do,” the longtime Pac-12 coach said. “Everybody’s adjusting to newness or guys who sat out last year. It’s just taken them some time but all of them are developing.”

The problem is that, if and when that development peaks, it might be too late. The Pac-12 has already locked itself into a tough position for Selection Sunday, with everyone except ASU likely needing an outstanding conference season to get an at-large berth in the NCAA Tournament.

And even then, there’s no guarantee. USC didn’t get a bid last season despite finishing in second at 12-6 and reaching the conference tournament final, while ASU received an at-large bid despite finishing 8-10. In both cases, nonconference schedules largely sealed their fate: USC went 9-4 against midlevel nonconference opposition, while ASU was 12-0 with wins over Kansas and Xavier.

Here’s a revised look at the league race, with teams listed in order of their NET rating.

(Rankings and statistics entering Saturday’s games; records include Saturday’s games.)

Arizona State

Record: 9-3

NET: 31

Kenpom: 43

Sagarin: 43

Worst loss: 67-66 to Princeton at home on Saturday.

Best win: 80-76 over Kansas at Tempe on Dec. 22.

Storyline: The Sun Devils have scheduled tough since Bobby Hurley’s arrival and they’ve grown into it.

Redeeming quality: ASU can survive a rough shooting game because of its defense (50th best nationally) and rebounding (10th in offensive rebounding percentage and No. 30 in defensive rebounding percentage)

Number: 45.3 – Free throws attempted divided by field goals attempted, the 18th best rate nationally in getting to the free throw line.

Projection: “Guard U” relied heavily on its perimeter last season, and Pac-12 teams figured out how to play them. But the Sun Devils’ increased size and versatility, personified by forward Zylan Cheatham and budding star Luguentz Dort, suggests they can carry their nonconference success into league play this time.

He said it: “Overall, I like that we can go big or (as against Kansas) we had a stretch with Zylan and four guards. So we have different looks, different ways that we can attack.”

— ASU coach Bobby Hurley

Washington

Record: 8-4

NET: 56

Kenpom: 52

Sagarin: 58

Worst loss: 68-66 to Minnesota at Vancouver, British Columbia, on Nov. 21.

Best win: 71-67 over Texas A&M at Vancouver, British Columbia on Nov. 20.

Storyline: Expectations rose considerably when the Huskies returned nearly everyone from a surprisingly strong debut under coach Mike Hopkins last season, but their nonconference play lacks a marquee win.

Redeeming quality: The 2-3 zone defense Hopkins brought with him from Syracuse continues to baffle opponents, being the 35th most efficient in Division I.

Number: 41.2 – Percent Washington opponents shoot from inside the 3-point line, the eighth lowest opponent percentage in Division I.

Projection: The Huskies’ experience, defense and conference schedule – they play ASU, UCLA, USC and UA only once each — suggests a strong run for the title.

He said it: “We tried to upgrade our conference schedule … We didn’t have that upset that we wanted but I feel we played well. You play those games to put yourself in a position to do better in the conference.”

— Hopkins

UCLA

Record: 7-6

NET: 61

Kenpom: 66

Sagarin: 53

Worst loss: 73-58 to Liberty at home on Saturday.

Best win: 65-62 over Notre Dame at home on Dec. 8.

Storyline: The Bruins shed last season’s offcourt issues only to replace them with oncourt problems this time.

Redeeming quality: UCLA still has star-quality talent in wing Kris Wilkes, guard Jaylen Hands and center Moses Brown.

Number: 14.4 – Percent of opponent shots that UCLA blocks (an average of 5.6 blocks per game)

Projection: Coach Steve Alford is already riding a hot seat, so anything less than a league title or second-weekend NCAA Tournament appearance could mean trouble.

He said it: “We’re focusing on being able to put 40 minutes together of sustaining the defense that we want and offensively, we’re really working hard on screening or and spacing and moving the ball.”

— Alford

Arizona

Record: 9-4

NET: 63

Kenpom: 57

Sagarin: 39

Worst loss: 58-49 to Baylor at home on Dec. 15

Best win: 71-66 over Iowa State at Lahaina, Hawaii, on Nov. 19.

Storyline: The Wildcats had to replace all five starters at that same time that the FBI investigation compromised their 2018 recruiting class.

Redeeming quality: Transfers infused the Wildcats with some much-needed leadership, maturity and experience, with former Duke center Chase Jeter also bringing toughness and 65.7-percent shooting.

Number: 94.4 – Points UA’s opponents score per 100 possessions, the 39th best defensive efficiency in Division I.

Projection: The Wildcats have looked both like a team that can far exceed (first half against Gonzaga) or finish well below (Baylor) their predicted fourth-place finish.

He said it: “What could be our best (nonconference) record and what could be our worst, we’re probably somewhere in between.”

— UA coach Sean Miller

Colorado

Record: 9-3

NET: 76

Kenpom: 76

Sagarin: 71

Worst loss: 72-67 to Indiana State at Honolulu on Dec. 22

Best win: 78-75 at New Mexico on Dec. 11.

Storyline: Once again, the Buffaloes look like a much different team on their mile-high home floor so far.

Redeeming quality: Point guard McKinley Wright is among the Pac-12’s leaders in assists (second), points (12th), field-goal percentage (13th) and even rebounding (16th).

Number: 48.6 – Colorado’s overall field-goal percentage, best in the Pac-12.

Projection: Buffs will challenge for a first-round conference tournament bye if they can stay afloat during a brutal seven-game start that includes five road games and a home date with Washington.

He said it: “We were very disappointed in our showing at Hawaii. We didn’t feel our team played anywhere near our abilities.”

— Colorado coach Tad Boyle

Oregon State

Record: 8-4

NET: 88

Kenpom: 81

Sagarin: 95

Worst loss: 66-63 to Kent State at home on Dec. 21

Best win: 61-56 over Old Dominion at St. Thomas, U.S. Virgin Islands

Storyline: If Tres Tinkle and the Thompson brothers are ever going to move up the Pac-12 ladder, this is the time to do it.

Redeeming quality: Mistakes in perimeter defense often get cleaned up by center Kylor Kellor, who blocks an astounding 20.5 percent of opponents’ shots when he’s on the floor.

Number: 35.6 – Percent of missed shots that OSU rebounds, the best offensive rebounding percentage in the Pac-12 and 29th nationally.

Projection: If Beavers can find a way to win away from cozy Gill Coliseum – where they are 1-17 in Pac-12 road games the past two seasons — a first-round Pac-12 Tournament bye is possible.

He said it: “In our past three games (before Saturday), we’ve given up 50 percent from 3 and shot about 26 percent… For us, it’s simple, we need to get our guys back to putting the focus on the defensive side of the ball, especially on 3-point line.”

— OSU coach Wayne Tinkle

Oregon

Record: 9-4

NET: 93

Kenpom: 44

Sagarin: 46

Worst loss: 89-84 to Texas Southern at home on Nov. 26.

Best win: 80-65 over Syracuse at New York on Nov. 16.

Storyline: Injuries and role-shifting issues have the Ducks underperforming after a strong recruiting class helped make them the league’s No. 1 preseason pick.

Redeeming quality: When he’s healthy, 7-2 center Bol Bol has the size, skills and range to do things that simply can’t be guarded.

Number: 76.2 – Oregon’s free throw shooting percentage, best in the Pac-12.

Projection: If Bol (foot) and forward Kenny Wooten (jaw) can get healthy at least by the midway point of conference play, the Ducks can still live up to expectations.

He said it: “We’re gonna have to have guys get better and continue to develop. They’re gonna have to play different roles and get comfortable playing different roles, which has been a real problem for us here early in the year.”

— Oregon coach Dana Altman

Stanford

Record: 7-5

NET: 107

Kenpom: 112

Sagarin: 106

Worst loss: 74-65 at San Francisco on Dec. 22

Best win: 96-74 over Seattle at home on Nov. 6.

Storyline: If Reid Travis didn’t leave to become a Kentucky grad transfer, this team contends for the league title.

Redeeming quality: The increasingly athletic Cardinal can get to the line, taking the 60th-highest ratio in free throws attempted to field goals attempted, though they hit free throws at only a 68.9 percent rate.

Number: 28.0 – Three-point percentage shot by Stanford opponents, the 16th-lowest opponent mark in Division I.

Projection: Pac-12 competition won’t faze the Cardinal, which took Kansas to overtime and faced North Carolina, Wisconsin and Florida, but Stanford still has to prove it can win a big game.

He said it: “I’m certainly optimistic of where we’re going. Being in the Bahamas and playing road games will pay dividends. … But since finals have been over, we’ve struggled a little bit. I’m not pleased with the way we’re competing.”

— Stanford coach Jerod Haase

USC

Record: 6-6

NET: 127

Kenpom: 92

Sagarin: 90

Worst loss: 102-92 (2OT) at Santa Clara on Dec. 18.

Best win: 90-75 over Cal State Bakersfield at home on Nov. 25.

Storyline: Trojans deserve credit for scheduling tougher, and for dealing with standout freshman Kevin Porter Jr.’s quadriceps injury, but they’re among the conference leaders in disappointment.

Redeeming quality: USC has one of the league’s most effective post duos in center Nick Rakocevic and stretch-four Bennie Boatwright.

Number: 5.0 – Percent of USC’s shots that get blocked, the seventh-lowest rate in Division I.

Projection: Trojans might want to make sure they win the Pac-12 Tournament this time if they have any hope of reaching the NCAA Tournament.

He said it: “I think we’ve had some chances and we did not win some of our out of conference games, especially against the higher-ranked teams, so we know we have to do well to have a successful season.”

— USC coach Andy Enfield

Utah

Record: 6-6

NET: 134

Kenpom: 136

Sagarin: 135

Worst loss: 90-79 to Hawaii at Fullerton, Calif., on Nov. 22.

Best win: 75-66 over Grand Canyon at Fullerton, Calif., on Nov. 23.

Storyline: Much-improved nonconference schedule has left Utes with nothing but bruises.

Redeeming quality: Utah’s porous defense is partially offset by the nation’s 54th best offensive efficiency, with the Utes hitting 55.6 percent from inside the arc and 72.4 percent from the free-throw line.

Number: 246 – Utah’s rank in defensive efficiency.

Projection: It will be a stretch for Utah to finish in the top four for a fifth consecutive season.

He said it: “We definitely could have bit off more than you normally have to do but it’s like my doctor used to tell me, ‘If it doesn’t kill you, it’s gonna make you stronger’ and that’s just the way we’re playing and practicing.”

— Utah coach Larry Krystkowiak

Washington State

Record: 7-6

NET: 163

Kenpom: 159

Sagarin: 151

Worst loss: 95-90 to Montana State at Kennewick, Wash., on Dec. 9.

Best win: 94-80 over Rider at home on Dec. 17.

Storyline: The Cougs’ revolving door keeps spinning — bringing in standout freshman C.J. Elleby but losing standout guard Malachi Flynn last spring — while the bottom line is about the same.

Redeeming quality: Expected to rely heavily on 3-point shooting, the Cougars have actually been effective inside the arc, shooting 56.5 percent from two-point range and getting their shot blocked only 5.8 percent of the time.

Number: 30.9 – Percent of WSU shots taken by Robert Franks when he’s on the court.

Projection: The Cougs received Franks back from the NBA Draft pool after he was the Pac-12’s most improved player last season. So there’s that.

He said it: “I think all the teams still have work to do. Everybody’s adjusting to newness or guys who sat out last year. It’s just taken them some time but all of them are developing.”

— WSU coach Ernie Kent

California

Record: 5-7

NET: 167

Kenpom: 196

Sagarin: 172

Worst loss: 76-59 to Yale at Shanghai, China, on Nov. 9.

Best win: 89-83 over San Diego State at home on Dec. 8.

Storyline: After the second-worst season in school history (8-24 overall and 2-16 in the Pac-12), Bears are slightly improved thanks in part to Boise State transfer Paris Austin and freshmen Matt Bradley and Andre Kelly.

Redeeming quality: Austin averages 34.7 minutes a game at point guard and still hangs on to the ball, posing the Pac-12’s best assist-turnover ratio (2.6-1).

Number: 305 – Cal’s national ranking in defensive efficiency, with opponents shooting 39.5 percent from 3-point range and 55.7 percent from inside the arc.

Projection: Bears might win another game or two this season but that doesn’t mean they’ll move up.

He said it: “I think we’re making strides in the right direction.”

— Cal coach Wyking Jones