LAS VEGAS — In the Pac-12 Tournament this week, UCLA is fighting for a No. 1 NCAA Tournament seed. USC needs one win to make absolutely sure it is in the 68-team field. Oregon and several other teams are trying to either rack up a couple of big wins to squeak out an at-large bid or win out to capture the automatic bid.
So what’s in it for Arizona? The Wildcats are pretty much locked into a No. 2 or 3 NCAA Tournament seed, maybe a No. 4 in the worst-case scenario, all preferential seeds that allow teams to lead first-weekend pods of four squads.
This, then, is all that the Pac-12 Tournament might come down to for the Wildcats: Spending next week in Sacramento or Orlando.
Seriously.
Play well, and the Wildcats stay in the Pac-12 footprint and around their sizable California alumni base for first-weekend games. Lose Thursday and maybe get sent to a more distant location that lacks nearby 1-4 seeds to anchor its pods …. a place such as Orlando, Florida.
Told of this theory earlier this week, UA coach Tommy Lloyd responded with a hint of sarcasm.
“You’re a way better theorist than I am,” Lloyd said. “I’m gonna let you run with your theories. You can write whatever you want to write, and I’ll probably agree with you.”
With that, Lloyd raised his eyebrows as if to say “yeah, right” and smiled.
Hear what Arizona head coach Tommy Lloyd said about the Wildcats ahead of the Pac-12 Tournament.
That’s OK. For what it’s worth, here’s the theory:
The primary privilege of earning a 1-4 seed is that the NCAA Men’s Division I Basketball Committee will aim not to disadvantage you by putting a lower-seeded team with a geographic edge in your pod. Normally 1-4 seeds go to a nearby first-weekend site — but they can be sent elsewhere if closer first-weekend sites are already taken up by teams higher on the overall seed list.
That’s Arizona’s potential problem. UCLA is a lock to be sent to Sacramento; and Gonzaga, which won the WCC Tournament title in dominant fashion, has passed Arizona in the NET and maybe the overall seed line. So UCLA and Gonzaga could be the top two seeds in Sacramento.
In addition, a cluster of highly rated teams could clog up the next-closest first-weekend sites: Denver and Des Moines, Iowa. Especially if Kansas State does well in the Big 12 Tournament and passes Arizona on the overall seed line, that means four teams among K-State, Kansas, Baylor, Texas or Marquette could lead the four pods between Denver and Des Moines.
Of all the teams within an easy drive of Orlando, only Miami appears potentially worthy of a 1-4 seed. Alabama could play there but as a likely No. 1 seed has earned the right to play first-weekend games in Birmingham.
So Orlando will likely need another 1-4 seed from somewhere else to lead a pod.
It could need Arizona.
CBS Bracketology buys into this theory. As of Wednesday, CBS had UCLA and Gonzaga heading to Sacramento, with Arizona heading to Orlando as the East Region’s No. 3 seed. That’s because CBS also predicted Texas and K-State would go to Denver, while Kansas and Marquette go to Des Moines — and Baylor heads to Columbus, Ohio, as a No. 3.
All of which is exactly what Lloyd will not be telling the Wildcats in his pregame speech.
“I’m not thinking about any of that stuff,” Lloyd said of NCAA seeding and placement. “If you’re worried about that stuff after 31 games in the regular season, I think you’re focused on the wrong things.”
Of course, to Lloyd this week is about many other things. He mixed in a little unusual tenseness to his post-practice interview with Tucson media on Tuesday and made it clear he was looking for the Wildcats to play better after having lost three of their previous six games.
Arizona will face a team it previously lost to — Stanford or Utah — in the Pac-12 Tournament quarterfinals. Said forward Azuolas Tubelis: ‘We’ll learn from it. ... We always respond after our losses.’
“I think it’s about getting your team to be cohesive, to show their trust in each other, show their trust in the system,” Lloyd said. “And you go out, you get in these tournaments and you let it rip. That’s going to be our mindset.”
The Pac-12 Tournament bracket gave the Wildcats additional motivation: Arizona knew Saturday it would be opening against a team that had already beaten the Wildcats, either Utah or Stanford.
“We just didn’t play well overall,” Lloyd said of those two losses. “I think our opponents probably had something to do with it. We’ve got to make a few adjustments here and there to counteract some of the things they’re trying to do to us.
“But all in all, I look at those teams and …. when you have talented players and a plan that’s executed, you can have some tough nights.
“We did. So I’m looking forward to the opportunity to see how we are this time out.”
Forward Azuolas Tubelis said the Wildcats worked in practice this week on some of the things they did wrong in those losses, on Dec. 1 at Utah and on Feb. 11 at Stanford.
“It was early in the season against Utah, and maybe we came off the Maui (Invitational championship) and (didn’t) take it as serious as the next games, but we’ll learn from it — and we’ll learn from Stanford,” Tubelis said. “We always respond after our losses.”
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