If South Carolina is this season’s gold standard in women’s basketball, as the No. 1 undefeated Gamecocks appear to be after two months, then the Pac-12 is well positioned to be a prime challenger entering the start of conference play later this week.
Yes, second-ranked Stanford (8-3) lost in overtime to the Gamecocks prior to the Christmas break. But the Cardinal also led by as many as 18 points (in the second quarter) and for more than 28 minutes overall — an impressive performance that came three days after its victory at No. 7 Tennessee.
Even given Stanford’s glaring turnover problem the reigning national champion is talented and deep enough to contend once again.
The conference has not produced back-to-back national champions since USC during the Cheryl Miller era (1983-84, when women’s basketball was played in the WCAA and not Pac-10).
But the Cardinal is not alone in the national elite. Fourth-ranked Arizona (10-0) is among five remaining unbeaten teams in Division I, as is Colorado (11-0).
The Wildcats have the gravitas based on their returners from a national runner-up. The Buffaloes, whose strength-of-schedule is No. 228 nationally, remain enough of an enigma to sit just outside the top 25 in both major polls.
The schism in the Pac-12 is reflected in ESPN’s most recent bracketology for the NCAA Tournament: Stanford and Arizona are projected as No. 1 seeds, then comes a significant drop-off to Colorado (No. 8), UCLA (9), Oregon (10) and Oregon State (11).
Washington State and Utah are rated among the first four left out of what will be the first 68-team field in the history of the women’s event.
Stanford guard Haley Jones is part of a talented Cardinal team that is looking to repeat as national champs.
Seven Pac-12 teams advancing to the Big Dance would tie a record set in 2017. Nothing wrong with that.
But to put more than two teams into the Sweet 16 likely will require seeding gains to be made over the next two-plus months.
Remember: The women’s sub-regionals are played at host sites of top 16 seeds.
Arizona seeking first title in 18 years
Stanford and Arizona play just one time in an 18-game Pac-12 regular season, on Jan. 30 at Maples Pavilion. It’s a mistake, though, to think the Pac-12 championship will boil down to that meeting.
The Cardinal won the regular-season title in 2020-21 for the first time in seven years, a gap that once was impossible to imagine with Tara VanDerveer at the Stanford helm.
No one has gone through the Pac-12 undefeated since 2011-12, and all but one of the last seven champions has had two losses, including Stanford (19-2) last season.
Arizona was Pac-12 runner-up (13-4) last season and has just one regular-season title, a tie with Stanford in 2003-04.
Everything on paper favors Stanford or Arizona, but that’s not a foregone conclusion and certainly won’t be an easy journey even if it comes to pass.
South Carolina — and before that, No. 12 Texas, No. 18 South Florida and Tennessee — have shown the physical ball-hawking blueprint to follow against Stanford. The Cardinal is No. 218 nationally in turnover margin and even lower in 3-point defense (No. 264) and free throw percentage (No. 324). And leading scorer Cameron Brink is susceptible to foul trouble.
Stanford is big, experienced, and deep enough to beat most teams, but the pressure applied to guards Haley Jones, Lexie and Lacey Hull — each has 20 or more turnovers — is not going to subside.
Arizona leads the Pac-12 in scoring defense (49.7 points per game) and scoring margin (24.3 ppg), and passed its only top-25 non-conference test against No. 3 Louisville (a 61-59 overtime win). Only forward Cate Reese is averaging double figures (13.1 ppg). Without star Aari McDonald, the Wildcats could have an issue with scoring as their schedule stiffens.
Leading challengers to the Big Two
Colorado, Utah (8-3) and Oregon (6-4), which are Nos. 3-5 in the Hotline’s latest power rankings and among the top 30 nationally in NET rankings, appear to be next best in the Pac-12.
The Mountain schools have one combined NCAA Tournament appearance (Colorado in 2013) since joining the conference in 2011-12.
For either or both to break through this season would be a testament to their growth in a decade of unprecedented Pac-12 achievement — a decade in which six different teams have reached the Final Four.
Utah is No. 4 nationally in scoring (85.3 points per game), led by freshman Jenna Johnson (13.8 ppg) and junior Brynna Maxwell (12.8 ppg). Colorado is succeeding more with defense (50.5 ppg), although that strength of schedule caveat is real. The Buffs’ toughest non-conference opponents were Oklahoma State (No. 68 in the NET rankings) and Marquette (No. 71).
The ceilings for Oregon and UCLA (5-3) are highly dependent on health, which is improving for the Ducks but not for the Bruins due to COVID.
UCLA has not played since Dec. 11 and remains on pause until at least Jan. 7 after the postponement of its first three conference games. The Bruins were to have played six games during that stretch; three were canceled, and only one has been rescheduled thus far (vs. USC). This comes on top of injuries limiting coach Cori Close to eight active players.
The Bruins’ Charisma Osborne (19.5 ppg) and Ilmar’l Thomas (18.0 ppg) are second and third in Pac-12 scoring. Two other players average double figures, so the makings are there for a significant climb if things stabilize on the injury and COVID fronts.
Endyia Rogers and Nyara Sabally returned from injury for Oregon in a loss at Kansas State on Dec. 18, but the Ducks lost the chance for a follow-up win over Northwestern due to COVID issues with the Wildcats. Guard Te-hina Paopao has yet to play this season for Oregon because of injury.
Don’t sleep on Arizona State
Notes and nuggets heading into the New Year’s Eve starting gate:
Cal guard Jayda Curry, already a four-time Pac-12 Freshman of the Week honoree, leads the conference (and is No. 20 nationally) in scoring at 20 points per game.
Arizona State (7-5), with a respectable No. 41 NET ranking, is arguably the most under-the-radar Pac-12 team. Starting wing Maggie Besselink (back) is expected to return after missing the last five games, which would put the Sun Devils as close to full health as they have been since the 2019-20 season. Guard Jade Loville is averaging 22 points over the last four games.
Oregon State (7-3) is fourth nationally in rebounding margin (plus-13.9 rebounds per game), led by Kennedy Brown (8.6 rpg), Taya Corosdale (7.3 rpg) and Taylor Jones (6.8 rpg). The Beavers’ game against North Carolina Central on Tuesday has been canceled due to opponent COVID protocol.
As it stands now — and taking into account UCLA’s and USC’s COVID postponement — the conference openers on Friday are: Cal at Washington State, Colorado at Oregon State, Stanford at Washington and Utah at Oregon.
Then on Sunday, the scheduled games are: Cal at Washington, Colorado at Oregon, Stanford at Washington State, Utah at Oregon State and Arizona State at USC.
The Pac-12 women will begin playing 20 conference games each season starting in 2022-23.
