Arizona and UCLA have been linked in the top 10 and locks for the NCAA Tournament for months β the lone lights in an otherwise gloomy Pac-12 season.
With the stretch run upon us and Selection Sunday looming, the Hotline wondered: What is their ceiling?
Both are worthy of consideration for No. 1 seeds in the NCAA Tournament. But is that endgame realistic given the schedules that lie ahead?
In order to illuminate the challenge, we gamed out the final weeks for both teams using the current NET rankings, which help frame the NCAA selection process, for all the upcoming opponents.
The process made four assumptions:
The NET rankings for each opponent remain fixed through Selection Sunday.
Neither Arizona nor UCLA loses, except in the head-to-head matchup.
UCLA wins the regular-season finale at Pauley Pavilion, avenging the earlier loss in Tucson.
Both teams advance to the championship of the Pac-12 tournament.
In that scenario, Arizona would win the following games, with the corresponding quadrant for each result.
Home: Utah (II), Colorado (II) and ASU (II)
Neutral: Pac-12 quarterfinals (II), Pac-12 semifinals (II)
Road: Cal (IV), Stanford (II), USC (I)
(The NCAA assigns each result into one of four quadrants based on the NET ranking of the opponent, with I as the highest and IV as the lowest.)
And UCLA would win the following:
Home: Stanford (III), Cal (IV), ASU (II), Arizona (I)
Neutral: Pac-12 quarterfinals (II), Pac-12 semifinals (II)
Road: OSU (III), Oregon (I), Utah (I), Colorado (I)
If we add those results to each teamβs current quadrant records, weβre left with the following records entering the conference championship game:
Quadrant I: Arizona 7-3, UCLA 7-4
Quadrant II: Arizona: 11-0, UCLA: 10-0
Quadrant III: Arizona: 3-1, UCLA: 6-0
Quadrant IV: Arizona: 8-0, UCLA: 6-0
So the winner of the title-game collision would have eight Quadrant I victories.
From here, itβs clear: The chief impediment to reaching the top seed line is the Pac-12 itself β specifically, the lack of opportunities for Arizona and UCLA to substantially improve their position relative to teams in other Power Six leagues that are competing for the coveted No. 1s and have more chances to impress.
The winner of the Pac-12 championship likely would max out with eight Quadrant I wins. Kansas already has 10; Purdue, nine; Texas, eight. And Alabama, which has six, plays a loaded schedule down the stretch.
That said, two pieces of context are important:
1. Quadrant I wins are just one of several data points in the process of determining the No. 1 seeds. There is a subjective component as well β and that just might be the best evidence for Arizona and UCLA when selection weekend arrives.
2. The committee is more likely to punish teams for playing weak non-conference schedules, which are under the head coachβs control, than soft league schedules, which are mandated β and thus not subject to intent.
At this point, itβs clear that both Pac-12 heavyweights have the potential to reach the top line. But as the scenario above suggests, the path isnβt as wide for Arizona and UCLA as for their counterparts, largely because of the Pac-12βs weak foundation.
To the power ratings β¦
(NET rankings through Monday)
1. UCLA (19-4, 10-2)
Last week: 1
Results: beat Washington 70-61 and WSU 76-52
Next up: at Oregon State (Thursday)
NET ranking: 5
Comment: The defense is good enough to win the NCAA title, but the offense is wobbly enough to lose in the Sweet 16. The Bruins have a month to get that resolved.
Arizona guard Courtney Ramey gets the crowd riled up as the Wildcats make a big run against Oregon early in the first half of their Pac-12 game at McKale Center on Feb. 2, 2023.
2. Arizona (21-3, 10-3)
Last week: 2
Results: beat Oregon 91-76 and OSU 84-52
Next up: at Cal (Thursday)
NET ranking: 10
Comment: After the dominating wins over the Oregon schools, the Wildcats seem primed for a letdown. It wonβt matter in Berkeley, but it might on Saturday across the Bay.
3. USC (17-6, 9-3)
Last week: 3
Results: beat WSU 80-70 and Washington 80-74
Next up: at Oregon (Thursday)
NET ranking: 51
Comment: Not that weβre into magic numbers, but the Trojans are 12-1 when they score at least 70 points, with the lone loss coming at Washington State. When they donβt hit 70, theyβre 5-5.
4. Oregon (14-10, 8-5)
Last week: 4
Results: lost at Arizona 91-76, won at ASU 75-70
Next up: vs. USC (Thursday)
NET ranking: 54
Comment: When the Ducks are off, theyβre off: The five conference losses have come by an average of 15 points. And the narrowest defeat (by seven at Stanford) feels far worse than it was.
5. Utah (16-9, 9-5)
Last week: 5
Results: lost to Stanford 78-72, beat Cal 61-46
Next up: vs. Colorado (Saturday)
NET ranking: 56
Comment: The Utesβ ranking in the Pomeroy predictive analytics (No. 55) is almost identical to their position in the NET. What does that mean? Absolutely nothing, unless they start winning big games.
6. Arizona State (16-8, 7-6)
Last week: 6
Results: beat OSU 68-57, lost to Oregon 75-70
Next up: at Stanford (Thursday)
NET ranking: 67
Comment: That huge early-season win over Michigan has turned into a big nothing-burger. The Wolverines are barely above .500 in the Big Ten, have a NET in the 60s and would not make the NCAAs if the field were selected today.
7. Colorado (14-11, 6-8)
Last week: 7
Results: beat Cal 59-46 and Stanford 84-62
Next up: at Utah (Thursday)
NET ranking: 65
Comment: The Buffs are 1-7 in true road games and 2-2 in neutral-court affairs. Sure, theyβre young. But they arenβt that young. The losses in Berkeley and Corvallis are permanent stains on their rΓ©sumΓ©.
8. Washington State (10-15, 5-9)
Last week: 8
Results: lost at USC 80-70 and UCLA 76-52
Next up: vs. Washington (Saturday)
NET ranking: 79
Comment: The Cougars lead the nation in number of Quadrant I losses, with 11. The schedule has been plenty tough. Problem is, they have just one Q1 win.
Washington coach Mike Hopkins yells instructions during the second half against USC on Saturday, Feb. 4, 2023, in Los Angeles.
9. Washington (13-12, 5-9)
Last week: 9
Results: lost at UCLA 70-61 and USC 80-74
Next up: at Washington State (Saturday)
NET ranking: 121
Comment: Add this to the case against Mike Hopkins: His team isnβt just floundering, itβs floundering in the worst Power Six league.
10. Stanford (10-13, 4-8)
Last week: 10
Results: won at Utah 78-72, lost at Colorado 84-62
Next up: vs. ASU (Thursday)
NET ranking: 113
Comment: Credit the Cardinal for winning five of their past six. And we suspect they will play the spoiler role a few times between now and the final game in the Pac-12 Tournament.
11. Oregon State (9-15, 3-10)
Last week: 11
Results: lost at ASU 68-57 and Arizona 84-52
Next up: vs. UCLA (Thursday)
NET ranking: 217
Comment: When you hear about a team tripling its victory total from the previous year with a month remaining, that usually indicates a first-rate season is unfolding. Here, not so much.
12. Cal (3-20, 2-10)
Last week: 12
Results: lost at Colorado 59-46 and Utah 61-46
Next up: vs. Arizona (Thursday)
NET ranking: 298
Comment: Misery has unexpected company; the only other team in the Power Six leagues with 20 losses is Louisville.
The University of Arizona once had a live "Wildcat" mascot; however, the current mascot β with a few changes that include wife, Wilma, along the way β Wilbur the Wildcat has been a favorite around Tucson for more than 60 years.
