Game info

Who: California Golden Bears (5-20, 0-13) at Arizona Wildcats (14-11, 5-7)

Where: McKale Center, Tucson

When: 7 p.m. Thursday

Watch: Fox Sports 1

Listen: 1290-AM, 107.5-FM

Follow: @TheWildcaster on Twitter / TheWildcaster on Facebook

Probable starters: Arizona

G Justin Coleman (5-10 senior)

G Brandon Randolph (6-6 sophomore)

F Dylan Smith (6-5 junior)

F Ryan Luther (6-9 senior)

C Chase Jeter (6-10 junior)

Probable starters: California

G Paris Austin (6-0 junior)

G Darius McNeill (6-3 sophomore)

F Juhwan Harris-Dyson (6-5 sophomore)

F Justice Sueing (6-7 sophomore)

C Connor Vanover (7-3 freshman)

How they match up

The last time

Arizona sputtered in the first half, missing eight shots and turning the ball over seven times during an eight-minute stretch, but rallied to win 87-65 on Jan. 12 at Haas Pavilion. Chase Jeter had 23 points and nine rebounds to lead the Wildcats.

The last time at McKale Center

Deandre Ayton went out in style during his McKale Center finale, recording UA’s first “20-20” game (26 points and 20 rebounds) since Arizona joined the Pac-10 in 1978, during the Wildcats’ 66-54 win over the Bears. It was an emotional home-court finale for all five Arizona starters, after a week in which coach Sean Miller spent five days away from the team in the wake of ESPN’s report that he discussed a pay-for-play scheme, and the Wildcats led the Bears just 38-35 at halftime.

Series history

Arizona has won six straight games over Cal and is 14-4 against the Bears in the Miller era. The Wildcats lead the all-time series 65-31.

What’s new with the Bears

Cal has lost another nine straight since hosting the Wildcats. The Bears did take UCLA to overtime on Feb. 13 at Haas Pavilion before losing 75-67, but are coming off a blowout 89-66 loss to USC last Saturday in Berkeley.

Largely because of his defensive energy and ability, Juhwon Harris-Dyson has moved into the starting lineup at small forward, while center Connor Vanover has improved after returning to the lineup following a five-game stretch off the bench. He’s averaging 12.4 points and 1.6 blocks over Cal’s last five games.

Power forward Justice Sueing is averaging 17.6 points and 5.4 rebounds over his last five games, while guard Matt Bradley is averaging 10 points over the last five games despite moving to the bench in February. Wing Darius McNeill has hit at least one 3-pointer in 15 straight games, with a combined 7-for-17 against UCLA and USC last weekend.

The Bears rank last in the Pac-12 in a number of categories, including offensive and defensive efficiency, offensive rebounding percentage (just 23.4 percent), effective field goal percentage (45.6, giving 50 percent extra credit for 3-pointers) and defensive effective field goal percentage (60.1). However, they are second to Arizona in turnover percentage (15.9).

He said it

“I think they’re still playing hard and they might have shortened their bench from the last time we were there. I know Harris-Dyson is playing a little bit bigger role than the first time that we played him, but the guy that stands out for me watching Cal is Justice Sueing. He hurt us last year when he was a freshman, he hurt us (this year) in game one. He’s a tough matchup. …

"He draws fouls (141 free throws taken) and we have to be careful because you know he could put one of our good players in foul trouble. He’s an excellent offensive rebounder. He’s more of a driver then he is a 3-point shooter but he’s a really difficult matchup when they play him at the four and when he plays the small forward, he tries to take advantage of his size.”

— UA coach Sean Miller

Key player: Justice Sueing

CALIFORNIA

As bad as the Bears have been, their leading scorer consistently causes trouble for opposing defenses with his ability to score at all three levels and get to the free-throw line, where he connects at an 82.3 percent rate. He’s also good on the glass, collecting 17.8 percent of his defensive rebounding opportunities. Sueing had 27 points and five rebounds against Arizona last month.

Key player: Brandon Randolph

ARIZONA

In his past four games, the Wildcats’ leading scorer has missed all 12 3-pointers he’s taken, shot 8 for 36 overall and hit 3 of 10 free throws. If there’s ever a time to break out of that slump, it’s now, because the Bears often can’t guard anyone well.

Miller bracing for roster change

Miller said on his radio show this week that there’s “zero chance” he won’t bring in at least one other recruit and that he would “more realistically” bring in two.

Considering that he already has the maximum of 13 scholarship players on paper for next season, it’s not difficult to figure he’s expecting more early departures this spring (or possibly a subtraction from his recruiting class).

“It’s happened every year that I’ve been here,” Miller said of the early departures. “We’re not at that point yet, but you know we’re always recruiting and making sure that that we can put our best foot forward and add a quality person and player to next year’s team. What you don’t want to do is you have that opportunity (when a scholarship opens up) and you don’t really have any irons in the fire.”

Already this year, Miller lost Emmanuel Akot to a transfer. Last year, although it was expected, Deandre Ayton, Rawle Alkins and Allonzo Trier all left early. In 2017, so did Kobi Simmons, Chance Comanche and Lauri Markkanen.

While Ayton and Markkanen left to become lottery picks, Alkins, Trier and Simmons all signed two-way contracts, while Comanche signed a G League deal.

The increasing developmental opportunities in the G League — and the relatively new two-way deals that pay at least $75,000 — have given fringe NBA prospects more reason to think about leaving college early.

That, in turn, gives college coaches such as Miller more reason to brace for spring roster losses.

“And I think every person that we coach is a little bit different from the next one,” Miller said. “What means something to one kid or one family, how they see it, could be completely different from the next. So it’s really hard to judge that they’re all in this category. But I think if you look through college basketball, there’s a lot of young people making those choices and, you know, sometimes it really works for them.”

Mannion says he trusts Miller

Five-star UA recruit Nico Mannion told Cronkite News that he has “100 percent trust” in Miller despite the FBI and NCAA investigations that have hovered around the Wildcats program.

“The information that me and my family got from Arizona is that everything’s fine there,” Mannion told the student-reported news service. “They’re just doing what’s right for the university. I have 100 percent trust in Coach Miller, so I’m sticking with my commitment.”

However, Mannion said UA’s move to fire assistant coach Mark Phelps earlier this month “was a hard one for me to swallow,” because he grew close to Phelps during the recruiting process.

“He’d call and we wouldn’t even talk about basketball,” Mannion told Cronkite News, “just life, what’s going on down there, what’s going on up here — girls, family, school, everything.

“He’s a great coach and a great person. One mistake shouldn’t ruin someone’s career.”

Off the (NIT) bubble

Arizona’s seven-game losing streak has not only all but dropped the Wildcats from NCAA Tournament at-large consideration, but also kicked them off an NIT projection.

Yes, there is an NIT projection.

In its Sunday update, DRatings.com did not list UA among the 28 teams receiving at-large bids for the 32-team tournament.

It did list two other Pac-12 teams, however: Oregon State as a No. 4 seed and Oregon as a No. 6.

DRatings forecasted four teams getting automatic bids and that number could grow, reducing at-large opportunities. Teams who win their conference regular-season titles but not their conference tournaments are granted automatic NIT bids.

A little context

Sean Miller on Arizona and Cal’s ability to take care of the ball despite both teams’ conference record: pic.twitter.com/cMty60dloV

— The Wildcaster (@TheWildcaster) February 20, 2019

Despite their respective losing streaks, Cal (11.1) and Arizona (11.3) are the Pac-12’s top two teams in fewest turnovers allowed during conference games this season.

“I think probably what it shows about both teams is there’s more to the game than just taking care of the ball,” Miller said. “When you shoot it, it has to go in. You have to get fouled, you have to get to the foul line. … We have not shot the ball well from the free throw line, either.”

The relative lack of turnovers, however, has been a saving grace for the Wildcats, keeping losses at Utah (when UA had seven turnovers) and Colorado (10) from being much worse last week.

“That’s something our team has been good at from the onset,” Miller said. “We have to continue to be good at it.”

Numbers game

11

Arizona’s ranking in Pac-12 games in field goal percentage (40.3) and conference 3-point percentage defense (39.2).

12

California’s ranking in Pac-12 games in scoring offense (66.8), scoring defense (80.8), field goal percentage (40.2), field goal percentage defense (51.7), 3-point percentage defense (39.3), two-point percentage defense (60.9) rebounding margin (-8.2), assists (10.5), and offensive rebounding percentage (23.4)

12.4

Dylan Smith’s scoring average over UA’s past five games.

276

Cal’s NET rating, 103 spots below the next-lowest Pac-12 team, Washington State.