Scouting report: Arizona Wildcats vs. Colorado Buffaloes

BOULDER, Colo. -- The Star's Bruce Pascoe previews game day essentials, from projected starting lineups to storylines and series history, ahead of the Arizona Wildcats' game against Colorado on Saturday.

Game info

What: Arizona (13-5, 7-5) at Colorado (13-5, 7-4)

Where: CU Events Center, Boulder, Colo.

When: Saturday, 6 p.m.

TV: FS1

Radio: 1290-AM, 107.5-FM

Social media: @TheWildcaster on Twitter / TheWildcaster on Facebook

Probable starters: Arizona

G James Akinjo (6-0 junior)

G Terrell Brown (6-1 senior)

F Dalen Terry (6-7 freshman)

F Azuolas Tubelis (6-10 freshman)

C Christian Koloko (7-0 sophomore)

Probable starters: Colorado

G McKinley Wright (6-0 senior)

G Eli Parquet (6-4 junior)

F D’Shawn Schwartz (6-7 senior)

F Jeriah Horne (6-7 senior)

C Evan Battey (6-8 junior)

How they match up

The last time: James Akinjo scored 22 points while hitting a buzzer-beating 3-pointer to end the first half, and Arizona had four other players scoring in double-digits during an 88-74 win over Colorado on Dec. 28 at McKale Center. The Wildcats shot 52.6% overall and committed just eight turnovers in what was their best win of the season to date.

The last time at the CU Events Center: The Wildcats lost their seventh straight game for the first time since the season before Lute Olson was hired (1982-83) when Colorado beat them 67-60 on Feb. 17, 2019. Lucas Siewert had 15 points and nine rebounds to lead the Buffs, who shot 55.8% from the field and outrebounded UA 31-24.

Series history: The Wildcats lead Colorado 21-14 all-time and are 16-5 against the Buffs since they joined the Pac-12 in 2011-12. However, Arizona is only 2-5 in the Pac-12 era at Boulder.

What’s new with the Buffaloes: Colorado has gone 7-3 since losing to Arizona at McKale Center, sitting just outside The Associated Press Top 25 and compiling what is still the best NET rating (19) in the Pac-12. Not much has changed with the Buffaloes’ rotation, though CU coach Tad Boyle continues to flip his post players depending on the matchups the Buffs are facing, going with either 7-footer Dallas Walton at center and 260-pound Evan Battey at power forward against bigger opponents or versatile 6-7 grad transfer Jeriah Horne at power forward and Battey at center against smaller teams. The Buffs started Walton on Dec. 28 at Arizona but played him only 19 minutes while Horne played 26.

Like Arizona, Colorado has flip-flopped its traditional strength somewhat, playing offense better than defense. The Buffs are second in offensive efficiency in Pac-12 games (the UA is third), with the Buffs shooting 3s at a 36.8% rate and twos at 49.6%. They don’t emphasize 3-point shots more than anyone else — in fact, their ratio of 3s to two-point shots taken ranks only 202 nationally — but virtually the entire rotation is a 3-point threat.

Of those making more than one 3 per game, Horne is the Buffs’ best 3-point percentage shooter at 43.9% while small forward D’Shawn Schwartz makes 3s at a 38.9% rate.

While Colorado doesn’t get to the line all that often — ranking only 225 in ratio of free throws to field goals taken — opponents know not to send them there if at all possible: Colorado is making 84.2% of its free throws, the best percentage in Division I. All of Colorado’s rotation players are shooting better than 80% from the line while Horne has made 93.1% (27 of 29).

He said it

“They potentially can break the NCAA record for free throw percentage and I think you want to start there. That shows you how many players can shoot the ball. They’re a very prolific 3-point shooting team and one of the things that makes it difficult is their frontcourt players other than Walton are all are able to shoot 3s. Horne may be their best overall 3-point shooter. (Reserve forward) Jabari Walker has continued to have a great freshman year. He’s a really skilled young player who made a couple 3s against us, and really from our game on, he’s really continued to shoot more. They made 12 3s against us last time and they’ve made quite a few 3s in a lot of games this year. It’s not the only thing they can do, but I think the firepower of their offense from behind the line really stands out.

“I think they’re better than us on defense but they are a little bit more efficient on offense. Some of that is personnel-driven, when you play smaller and you play a more skilled group.

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“But they’re one of our conference’s best programs and historically, they’ve been really good at home. We played them a long time ago and we beat them, and any time that you beat a team the first time on your court, you know they’re going to be eager and ready when you return to their court. And putting an asterisk next to everything that I said, we’re their one and only game this week. They didn’t have to prepare for ASU. I don’t think any of that’s really to our advantage, but that’s the circumstances and we have to be ready and do the best that we can.” — UA coach Sean Miller

Key player (Colorado): McKinley Wright IV

If the Buffs’ senior point guard is going to become the Pac-12 Player of the Year, now’s a good time to make a final push. Wright struggled somewhat on Dec. 28 at McKale Center, shooting just 4 of 12 from the field, missing all three 3s he took and matching his four assists with four turnovers. So he’ll have plenty of incentive this time.

Key player (Arizona): Bennedict Mathurin

So who’s the Wildcats’ defensive stopper on the perimeter this season? That hasn’t really been established, but Mathurin has the athleticism and size to help the Wildcats contain the Buffs’ bigger 3-point shooters. He’ll have to turn around after an off game on Thursday at Utah.

Sidelines

When bad means bad

Lithuanian freshman Azuolas Tubelis has a pretty good grip on the English language, but he’ll have to learn that English is so weird a language that something like “baddest” actually can mean something that’s not bad at all.

This is how he described the UA’s defense on Thursday after the Wildcats lost to Utah:

“Our defense was the baddest defense all this season,” Tubelis said. “They kick our asses.”

Tubelis speaks carefully, but he’s refreshing in that what he says appears to be very straightforward and not rehearsed. On Thursday, for example, Tubelis expressed complete puzzlement that the UA’s defense could have struggled the way it did.

“We worked hard the last four days in practices,” Tubelis said. “All those things were good — I don’t know just mentally. We need to prepare ourselves better and play like a team, like one fist. But still … I don’t know why.”

Forget Thursday

As much as Arizona might want to forget its 15-point loss at Utah on Thursday, so does Colorado coach Tad Boyle.

He told reporters during his Zoom conference Friday that he expects to see a different team on Saturday.

“They struggled against Utah to shoot the ball but Sean Miller’s a hell of a coach and they’re gonna be ready to go,” Boyle said. “They’ve got competitive young men in that program. It’s gonna be a different animal than we saw in Salt Lake last night. We gotta be able to handle that. I think Arizona is really, really good offensively.”

If all that just sounds like coachspeak that the Buffs may or may not listen to, Boyle also has a certain video to pull out to motivate his guys: The one where the UA beat Colorado by 14 points on Dec. 28 at McKale Center.

“They whipped our ass and that’s not a good feeling. It wasn’t even close,” Boyle said. “But I did rewatch that game and we weren’t as bad as I thought we were. We had probably 32-34 minutes of good basketball.”

Somebody will heal

Saturday’s game not only gives Arizona a chance to quickly forget about Utah, but it also gives Colorado a chance to put to rest its embarrassing loss to the Utes on Jan. 30, when Utah came back from a 19-point deficit.

Plus, the Buffs had the whole week to stew over it and prepare since ASU paused for COVID reasons and didn’t play them Thursday as scheduled.

So who’s at an advantage here? The team that prepared all week or the one that just played. Rest or rhythm?

“It can work both ways,” UA coach Sean Miller said. “I think you get in the month of February, though and you can get a little bit more focused on the task at hand. Being a little bit more rested and also (having more time for) preparation I think that certainly helps.”

But for what it’s worth, the Wildcats also had the same situation when they faced Washington State on Jan. 2, because ASU pulled out of its New Year’s Eve game at Pullman because of its first COVID pause. Then the UA beat the well-rested Cougars in double-overtime, 86-82.

Numbers game

14

Shots Christian Koloko has blocked in Arizona’s past nine games.

58.1

Jordan Brown’s shooting percentage, fourth-best in the Pac-12.

82.9

Colorado’s free-throw percentage in Pac-12 games, best in the conference (although CU took only six free throws in a Jan. 30 loss to Utah, making five).