Scouting report: Arizona Wildcats vs. Washington Huskies

The Star's Bruce Pascoe previews all of the game day essentials, from projected starting lineups to storylines and series history, ahead of the Arizona Wildcats' road contest against Washington in Seattle. 

Game info

Who: Arizona (13-6, 3-3) at Washington (12-9, 2-6)

Where: Hec Edmundson Pavilion, Seattle

When: 7 p.m.

TV: ESPN2

Radio: 1290-AM, 107.5-FM

Follow: @TheWildcaster on Twitter / TheWildcaster on Facebook

Probable starters: Arizona

G Nico Mannion (6-3 freshman)

G Dylan Smith (6-5 senior)

F Josh Green (6-6 freshman)

F Stone Gettings (6-9 senior)

C Zeke Nnaji (6-11 freshman)

Probable starters: Washington

G RaeQuan Battle (6-5 freshman)

G Jamal Bey (6-6 sophomore)

F Nahziah Carter (6-6 junior)

F Hameir Wright (6-9 junior)

C Isaiah Stewart (6-9 freshman)

How they match up

The series: The Pac-12’s unbalanced schedule gave Arizona only one game against Washington over the past two seasons, and maybe that was a good thing for the Wildcats: The Huskies won 78-75 in 2017-18, when Dominic Green picked up a blocked shot from Deandre Ayton and put it back in from 3-point territory, and 67-60 at McKale Center last season, when Arizona shot 37.7% and had 20 turnovers in its fourth straight loss.

This season: The Huskies will return Thursday’s game at McKale Center in the regular-season finale for both teams on March 7.

Washington overview: The Huskies lost four starters from their Pac-12 regular-season champion team, including player of the year Jaylen Nowell and defensive player of the year Matisse Thybulle, and it has started to show. Fortified with five-star big men Isaiah Stewart and Jaden McDaniels, plus Kentucky transfer guard Quade Green, the Huskies raced to a 10-2 start before hitting rough times in Pac-12 play and losing Green to academic ineligibility. They are just 2-7 in their past nine games, and last week were swept in the mountains, blowing a 12-point lead at Utah. The Huskies pulled Marcus Tsohonis out of a redshirt season to help replace Green, while Hopkins has also turned to sophomore guards Jamal Bey and Elijah Hardy. Hopkins has also benched highly regarded freshman forward Jaden McDaniels at the start of the Colorado game while starting perimeter shooter RaeQuan Battle, something he said he might also do this week.

The Huskies’ 2-3 zone defense is still a strong point, though not like it was a year ago with Thybulle at the top and veterans all around him. The Huskies have the conference’s second-most efficient defense, allowing 91.9 points per 100 possessions in Pac-12 games, while holding opponents to the lowest effective field goal percentage (41.4, with 3-pointers given an extra 50-percent credit). They also block shots better than anyone else in Pac-12 play, on 18.9% of opponent possessions, and steal the ball on 10.5% of opponent possessions, according to Kenpom.

Freshman Isaiah Stewart is the featured figure on both ends of the court, leading the Huskies in scoring (18.2), rebounding (8.9) and blocked shots (2.2), blocking 7.3% of opponents’ shots when he’s on the floor. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Wildcats throw multiple defenders at him, especially the rugged Ira Lee off the bench.

He said it

It’s about “being able to take care of the ball, play with 10 or 12 or fewer turnovers and attack the zone, play with confidence. Some of it is, can we get second shots? Can we beat them down the floor and get transition baskets off our defense? And then we have to do a great job defending them. Stewart is a load; he can put your team in foul trouble. We’ve got to be able to keep him from having a big night offensively.”

With the point guard spot, “they’re doing it more by committee but they have good players that are that are more combo guards. I think Mike (Hopkins) and his staff are doing the best that they can in that situation and it’s tough – Quade was a solid point guard, a veteran guy and somebody statistically that could shoot as well. You put him on the team that they currently have, I think that’s a big, big deal. It’s almost like Brandon Williams for us, and he’s the forgotten guy because Brandon hasn’t played this year but (having him) kind of gives you that that next-level firepower.” — UA coach Sean Miller

Key player (Washington): Isaiah Stewart

With Washington’s Jaden McDaniels in a puzzling funk, the Huskies’ other projected first-round post player has an even more important role inside. Stewart is a bulldog inside offensively and his rim-protecting abilities bring an added touch to the Huskies’ 2-3 zone

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Key player (Arizona): Zeke Nnaji

Almost all the stats from Arizona’s production in home and road games differ, except those by Nnaji. He’s largely the same guy no matter where he plays, shooting only slightly worse on the road. But the presence of Stewart and Washington’s zone defense could make his life more challenging this time.

Sidelines

Honoring Kobe

Arizona guard Jemarl Baker Jr. says Kobe Bryant was his idol and favorite player growing up. “He inspired me to be great.” Baker added the Wildcats will wear Kobe 5s this week to honor him. pic.twitter.com/obBCGCuJjM

— Justin Spears (@JustinESports) January 28, 2020

Jemarl Baker and some of the Wildcats just might flash more than their school colors on the floor Thursday, if they wear the green-accented Nike Kobe Zoom Protro 5 Chaos shoes that guard Jemarl Baker said he would wear.

It’s one way Baker said the Wildcats plan to honor the NBA legend, who died in a helicopter crash on Sunday.

“I’m definitely wearing his shoes,” Baker said. “I don’t know if everybody is but a lot of people on the team are, just honoring him in any way we can.”

Having grown up in Los Angeles until he was nine, then moving to the Riverside County city of Menifee, Baker said he grew up idolizing Bryant.

“Just watching him every other night on TV, how determined he was to win,” Baker said. “I don’t want to say he inspired me to play basketball but he definitely inspired me to want to be great. And I think just watching him has helped me get to where I am now. So it’s definitely hurt me for sure.”

Saying he found the news “beyond disheartening,” UA coach Sean Miller said he talked to his players about it earlier this week. Miller said it was amazing to see how the news affected the entire world.

Sean Miller on the passing of Kobe Bryant: “It’s an amazing loss for our world and the world of sports.” Miller’s father coached Kobe in the Dapper Dan Classic. pic.twitter.com/wF4ClHYQoM

— Justin Spears (@JustinESports) January 28, 2020

“Kobe transcends sports because of his mental approach to winning and how competitive he was, the fact that he played for 20 years,” Miller said. “The other part is what he started to do when basketball ended. It was almost like a new chapter of greatness was just unfolding. It’s just hard, and it’s affected a lot of people. To say that we’re all thinking about his wife and his family would be a big understatement.”

Pomeroy says ‘weird’ Wildcats have upside

In an article for The Athletic, college basketball analytics guru Ken Pomeroy says he’s always been bothered by the narrative of a “talented team that just doesn’t win on the road.”

Guess who that applies to this season?

Yes, Kenpom himself says he’s fascinated by Arizona because, according to his analytics, the Wildcats are still headed for a lot of success this season despite starting Pac-12 play at 3-3 while losing all three conference road games so far.

But it isn’t just the fact that Arizona still ranks No. 13 overall in Kenpom’s rankings – it’s that he says the Wildcats’ overall scoring margin is more important than their 0-3 road record in predicting future success.

Of all teams who have started 3-3 in conference play since 1997, Pomeroy said, there’s been less than a one-percent difference in remaining win percentage between teams who went 0-3 record on the road and those who won one or two games on the road (50.0% for 0-3 road teams, 50.1% for 1-2 teams and 50.9 for 2-1 teams).

Meanwhile, Arizona has outscored opponents collectively in Pac-12 games by 46 points, something only 32 teams have matched while going just 3-3. And those 32 teams won 63% of their games from that point.

“So Arizona has been a fairly weird team and will be a fascinating case to follow,” Pomeroy wrote, adding of Thursday’s game that “they may lose because even though it’s easier to win on the road than ever, it’s still not easy, even against a Washington team that isn’t going to be tournament-bound.

“But if they lose it won’t be because Nico Mannion and Zeke Nnaji are somehow unusually susceptible to having their confidence shot by the mean things the crowd is saying to them. It’s unlikely Arizona has any more of a mental issue on the road than any other team.”

Where’s Jaden?

Washington’s 2-6 start to Pac-12 play hasn’t just been attributable to the loss of starting point guard Quade Green, but also the head-scratching play of Jaden McDaniels.

Regarded as a likely lottery pick in June, because of his athleticism, versatility and ability to score at all levels, McDaniels came off the bench in Washington’s Jan. 25 loss at Colorado.

Huskies coach Mike Hopkins expressed displeasure with McDaniels in the Seattle Times when he said “You can’t force things. You got to play as a team. If we play as a team we have a chance to be really special. If we play one-on-one then we’re just not going to be.”

Then, during Washington’s first two possessions when McDaniels finally did enter the Colorado game at the 17:54 mark of the first half, McDaniels committed a turnover and a drew a charging call. He finished the game with two points on 1-of-6 shooting.

Numbers game

0

Teams other than Arizona in Division I whose top three scorers are all true freshmen.

13.8

Combined takeaways (steals and blocks) that Washington averages, the highest average in the Pac-12.

58.3

Stone Gettings’ shooting percentage while starting the Wildcats’ last three games, including 2 for 3 from 3-point range.