When Arizona lost its third straight game to drop to just 9-7 in Pac-12 play Saturday, reasons for the Wildcats to panic were easy to find.

The Wildcats’ head coach was ejected their 69-64 loss at UCLA. Their third-leading scorer was nursing a lower back injury. They dropped to 3-7 in games decided by five points or less, once again unable to perform well in the clutch by turning the ball over three times in the final 99 seconds.

The postseason might look scarier for the Wildcats, too. They fell into a tie for sixth place in the Pac-12 on a percentage basis, suggesting they might have to play an extra Pac-12 Tournament game on March 11.

And while Arizona’s NCAA Tournament resume still hovers above bubble status, it has earned itself no seeding placement priority whatsoever β€” a No. 9 in Albany, New York, perhaps?

But while all of those things might be true, they’re also not really what they might seem (well, except the part about not playing well in the clutch).

Here’s why:

β€’ Sean Miller and Josh Green should be back to normal. Miller was ejected when he was called for two technical fouls at UCLA, but the penalty does not extend beyond that.

Meanwhile, Green’s back issue was nothing like the spasms and other issues that have plagued center Chase Jeter for the past two seasons. Green suffered a sprained sacroiliac joint (where the pelvis and lower spine meet), likely as a result of hard falls in Arizona’s game with Oregon on Feb. 22, and UA has said it expects him to be available this week.

β€’ Assuming they can beat Washington State (Thursday) and Washington (Saturday) at home this week, the Wildcats are actually more likely to earn a first-round Pac-12 Tournament bye than have to play a first-round game.

That’s because the Wildcats own tiebreakers against both Colorado and Stanford, teams they beat and did not face a second time.

Pac-12 tiebreaker rules first consider head-to-head play and then, if teams are tied in a group, the collective records of the tied teams against each other β€” and since Stanford and Colorado have matched Arizona’s seven losses at this point, one or both could wind up in a tie with the Wildcats.

If the Pac-12 Tournament were being held this week, Arizona would be the No. 6 seed but only because the Wildcats have played one less game than Colorado and USC entering the weekend.

But if the current standings are instead viewed only in the loss column, there’s a four-way tie for fourth place with Arizona, Colorado, USC and Stanford β€” and Arizona would be the No. 4 Pac-12 Tournament seed because it has the best record (3-1) in games played between members of that group.

Arizona would also be the No. 4 seed if all favorites (as defined by Kenpom’s predictive calculations) win this weekend. That would mean the Wildcats and ASU would both sweep the Washington schools, Oregon would sweep Cal and Stanford, USC would beat UCLA, Stanford would beat Oregon State and Colorado would beat Utah.

In that scenario, Oregon would win the league outright at 13-5. UCLA and ASU would finish tied for second at 12-6, with the Sun Devils earning the No. 2 spot because they beat Oregon while UCLA did not. Arizona would then be No. 4, winning a three-way tie for fourth because it was 2-1 against Colorado and USC.

β€’ The NCAA Tournament picture also hasn’t really changed much for Arizona lately.

Many other teams in their potential 5-9 seed range also lost over the weekend, and neither of Arizona’s last three losses have been particularly bad (the USC and Oregon games were Quadrant 1 opportunities and the UCLA game was a Q2, and the Bruins could turn that into a Quadrant 1 spot by improving just one spot up from their No. 76 NET ranking.)

As of now, the Wildcats are averaging a projection of No. 7 in the NCAA tournament, according to the Bracket Matrix. ESPN’s bracket projection gave them a No. 6 seed in the South (starting in Albany) and CBS gave them a No. 8 in the Midwest (Omaha, Nebraska).

Meanwhile, Stanford’s 72-64 win over Colorado on Saturday not only made it more likely either of those teams could wind up tied with Arizona, but it also helped strengthen the Pac-12’s case for getting seven teams in the NCAA Tournament field along with UCLA’s sweep of ASU and UA.

Both CBS and ESPN projected seven Pac-12 teams in the field β€” Oregon, Colorado, UCLA, USC, Stanford, Arizona and ASU β€” which would tie the conference’s record set in 2015-16. The Bracket Matrix had seven teams from the conference seeded 4-12 on average.

Rim shots

β€’ All seven of the Pac-12’s projected NCAA Tournament teams received votes in the AP Top 25. Oregon (13) is the only ranked team, but UCLA had the 27th-most points while Colorado was 32nd, Arizona 34th, Stanford and ASU tied for 38th, and USC tied for 44th with one point.

β€’ Cal’s Matt Bradley was named the Pac-12 Player of the Week after averaging 23.5 points and 5.5 rebounds in the Bears’ home sweep of Colorado and Utah. Stanford’s Tyrell Terry was named Pac-12 Freshman of the Week after averaging 18.5 points while hitting 8 of 15 3-pointers in Stanford’s sweep of Utah and Colorado.

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