The Pac-12 Conference has come a long way over the past six weeks.
How far can it go in another six weeks?
Weβre about to find that out. The Pac-12 CEO Group, consisting of league presidents and chancellors, is scheduled to meet Thursday to decide whether to proceed with a delayed, shortened football season. Despite some lingering obstacles, the expectation is that the CEO Group will vote to move forward.
βI anticipate college football happening in the Pac-12 after (Thursdayβs) meeting,β Pac-12 Networks analyst Yogi Roth said Wednesday.
Roth added that he did not have any inside information about the pending vote. But if the Pac-12 is facing fourth-and-goal at the 1-yard line β after essentially driving the length of the field β it might as well go for it.
The league has proceeded deliberately from the start, always erring on the side of caution. When it seemed unlikely that football and other sports could be played safely, the conference shut it all down. That happened Aug. 11, less than two weeks after the Pac-12 announced an all-conference schedule.
But a little over three weeks later, the league announced an agreement with Quidel Corporation that would enable every athletic program to test daily for the coronavirus. The door that had been slammed shut suddenly reopened.
Just as it followed the Big Tenβs lead in August, the Pac-12 seems poised to lift its postponement. The Big Ten is set to begin play Oct. 24. Thatβs probably too ambitious for the Pac-12. But it shouldnβt be trailing too far behind.
Whatβs realistic? What are the possible timelines? Here are five questions and answers about the Pac-12βs imminent restart:
1. What are the most likely outcomes Thursday? The way we see it, there are three: The entire league kicks off Oct. 31; the entire league kicks off Nov. 7; or half the league kicks off Oct. 31 and the other half Nov. 7.
Halloween would be preferable in terms of building a schedule thatβs comparable to those in other leagues. An Oct. 31 start β with no byes β theoretically would enable the Pac-12 to play eight games and finish on Dec. 19. As of now, the College Football Playoff is scheduled to release its final rankings on Dec. 20.
The problem with that: If teams were to begin ramped-up training Friday, they would have only five weeks to prepare for openers on Oct. 31. The consensus among coaches has been that six weeks are needed to properly prepare for games. Hence, the Nov. 7 start date, which would limit Pac-12 teams to seven games.
One alternative would be to have the six teams that didnβt have to seek governmental approval to practice as recently as last week β and maybe even into this week β start on Oct. 31. Those would be Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Utah, Washington and Washington State. The other six that havenβt been able to work out or practice as extensively β Cal, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Oregon and Oregon State β would get an additional week.
βSome teams are having their workouts in helmets and shells; some havenβt been able to get together once yet,β Roth said, underscoring the disparities. βNobody wants to be β¦ left behind.β
Under scenario No. 3, the six teams starting on Oct. 31 would get a midseason bye. That would enable all the teams to play the same number of games. The Pac-12 has been adamant about remaining unified throughout the pandemic.
2. What are some other potential tweaks that could mitigate the disparities in preparation and readiness? It has been suggested that the early portion of the schedule reflect those differences. In other words, have the California and Oregon teams square off against one another in a round-robin format to start the season. The Arizona, Washington and mountain-region schools could do the same.
That would create a nontraditional schedule structure, possibly including rivalry games in Week 1 that typically are season finales.
But nothing about this season is traditional or typical. Leagues are starting their seasons a month or even two months later than planned. Games are being postponed and rescheduled almost daily because of COVID-19 outbreaks and contact-tracing protocols.
Remember: In the revised, conference-only schedule released July 31, Arizona was to have opened the season against ASU, and USC was to have visited UCLA. At the time, those games were scheduled for this Saturday.
A regional, round-robin format also would reduce travel, at least to the extent thatβs possible in the vast Pac-12 footprint. That would make it a little easier for visiting teams to adjust to COVID-19 protocols that could differ from state to state.
3. Why did the Pac-12 require six additional days to get its act together? Launching a football season amid a global pandemic is easier said than done. Just ask the other conferences that have dealt with outbreaks, postponements and cancellations. The University of Houston, where Kevin Sumlin began his head-coaching career, has had five potential openers postponed or canceled.
The Pac-12 has its own unique challenges. Progress seemed to have been made last week with public health authorities in California and Oregon, but it remained unclear Wednesday whether every hurdle had been cleared. Jon Wilner of The San Jose Mercury News reported Wednesday that, in California, βrestrictions must be officially amended and schools need to submit proposals for local approval.β
Gaining those approvals in Northern California might be the final step. After a report suggested Stanford was most resistant to the idea of playing football β specifically treating student-athletes differently than regular students β Cardinal coach David Shaw tweeted the following on Monday: βStanford University leadership and our department of athletics are working diligently with the Pac-12 and Santa Clara County on how, and when, our student-athletes can safely return to sports.β
Two other factors conceivably have slowed the process.
One is that the Quidel testing machines and kits are just arriving on campuses this week. Training on how to administer and read the tests will take place this week and next. The availability of reliable, rapid-result testing is the linchpin of whatever plan the Pac-12 pushes forward.
The other factor is that the conference has to get this right. Already the last of the Power 5 leagues to formulate a restart plan, the Pac-12 canβt afford another false start as happened Aug. 11.
4. Can players adequately prepare to play football in 5-6 weeks? Roth, a former college football player and coach, believes they can. He noted that although there have been stops and starts β and that some programs even sent their players home for a spell β workouts have been more consistent and rigorous than in the spring, when everything was being done remotely.
βGuys have been working out on campus versus being at home using dadβs old dumbbells,β Roth said.
Since late August, Pac-12 teams have been permitted to engage in team-related activities β lifting, meeting, on-field walk-throughs β for 12 hours per week. UA players have worn spider pads, also known as skeleton pads, for some drills.
In the six-week ramp-up construct, teams would increase their activity to 20 hours per week for the first two weeks before shifting into something resembling a normal training camp. If teams have only five weeks, that schedule would have to be adjusted.
Either way, it will be critical for coaches to gauge how hard they should push their players.
βYouβre going to have to ease your team into playing,β Roth said.
That might be especially true for the California schools. But even with limited opportunities for full-scale workouts, Cal players said theyβd be prepared to play.
βWeβve all been staying ready for whenever itβs going to happen,β linebacker Cameron Goode told Cal Sports Report.
5. If the Pac-12 plays only seven games, would it be eligible for the College Football Playoff? The CFP is a long way away; the semifinals are scheduled for Jan. 1, the championship game is Jan. 11. No one knows whether the leagues scheduled to play 10-plus games, such as the SEC, will be able to pull that off.
Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby, part of the CFP Management Committee, was noncommittal on the subject.
βThere is a conversation to be had (about eligibility), and itβs probably not going to be had right away,β Bowlsby told CBSSports.com. βWeβre all going to have to see how many games we get in.β
The ACC, Big 12 and SEC schedules include bye weeks, giving those leagues some degree of flexibility to deal with postponements (which already have struck in the ACC and Big 12; the SEC kicks off Saturday). The Big Ten has none. The Pac-12 likely wonβt either, unless it goes with the staggered-start model.
Regardless of the format, the Pac-12 schedule will be shorter than most others. The league is hopeful that wonβt eliminate it from CFP consideration.
βThe moment weβre saying football is back on should be celebrated,β Roth said. βIt should not be evaluated as if the seasonβs already over.β