This is the second in a three-part series looking back at the 2016 Arizona Wildcats football season and ahead to next year. Today’s installment: Defense.
Year 1 of the new-look Arizona Wildcats defense did not go exactly as planned.
Under first-year coordinator Marcel Yates, the UA defense regressed slightly in certain key statistical categories, including points per game, yards per game, yards per play and third-down percentage. That wasn’t what Rich Rodriguez was seeking when he replaced the entire defensive staff.
But Rodriguez viewed those changes through a relatively long-term lens. They were as much about improving the roster via recruiting as improving the defense. He remains confident the Wildcats can make significant strides in both areas.
As for the defense, there’s at least a sense of hope for 2017 and beyond. We explore the origins of that optimism by asking — and answering — three lingering questions.
1. If the defense didn’t make any tangible progress, why should UA fans be encouraged?
You have to look beyond the numbers in this case. Instead, search for building blocks.
The Wildcats might have some in their secondary.
In three of the final four games, Arizona started five players who had a combined four starts entering this season. Two were true sophomores, two were true freshmen. Only cornerback Dane Cruikshank was an upperclassman — a redshirt junior who transferred from junior college and sat out last season.
The two sophomores, safety Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles and cornerback Jace Whittaker, were among Arizona’s most consistent defenders. Flannigan-Fowles’ play dropped off slightly in the second half of the season, but he still finished second on the team in tackles. Whittaker became a starter in Week 6 and quickly emerged as the Wildcats’ steadiest corner.
Freshman Isaiah Hayes supplanted veteran Jarvis McCall Jr. at free safety in early October and finished with 38 tackles, including 2.5 for losses. Fellow rookie Tristan Cooper made five starts at “Spur” safety and had 35 stops, including two for losses. Both freshmen left the season-ending Territorial Cup with undisclosed injuries.
Elsewhere on defense, the Wildcats might have unearthed a gem along the defensive line. Redshirt sophomore Larry Tharpe Jr. — a late-arriving walk-on from Tyler (Texas) Junior College — became an important member of the rotation down the stretch. In eight games he accumulated 16 tackles, including 2.5 for losses, and three pass breakups.
Arizona returns five more defensive linemen who played significant snaps, and the early buzz on the freshmen who redshirted — in particular end Jalen Cochran — is favorable. The coaching staff also is combing the high school and JC ranks for big-bodied linemen who can hold up against the run.
But as much as the defensive line was derided in 2016 for its lack of size and depth, it isn’t the area of greatest concern entering next season.
2. Who’s going to play linebacker for the Wildcats in 2017?
No position will experience greater turnover than linebacker — particularly at the “Mike” and “Will” positions.
Arizona loses four seniors who played the majority of the snaps at those spots: Michael Barton, Paul Magloire Jr., Jake Matthews and Cody Ippolito. The four combined for 205 tackles, 18 stops for losses, 7.5 sacks and three fumble recoveries. That’s a lot of production.
Where it’s going to come from in 2017 is one of the most fascinating subplots of the offseason.
Unless Arizona moves John Kenny from “Stud” to “Mike” — or can find a Barton-esque grad transfer — whoever plays there will have little if any Division I college experience.
On the current roster, players who should be in the mix include Brandon Rutt (who had 19 tackles, two fumble recoveries and an interception this year), Carrington Vaughn, Jacob Colacion and Kahi Neves. Colacion and Neves redshirted as freshmen this season.
Incoming freshmen to watch included Bryce Brand, Joshua Brown, Tony Fields and Delshawn Phillips. As with safety this year, the freshman linebackers will have every opportunity to play right away.
The Wildcats need to get faster at linebacker, regardless of who ends up playing there. The aforementioned senior linebackers were credited with just two pass breakups and had zero interceptions.
Arizona blitzes its linebackers a lot, and the “Stud” position is essentially an OLB-DE hybrid. DeAndre’ Miller got off to a promising start there before suffering an ankle injury that derailed his season. He didn’t really look like himself again until the ASU game. Miller has all the tools. But like Nick Wilson on offense, it’s all about being able to stay healthy.
3. How much can we reasonably expect the Arizona defense to improve next season?
As was the case coming into this year, expectations need to be tempered. With youth comes mistakes. Ideally, those errors will be offset by more playmaking.
As mentioned at the top, Arizona’s defense actually got slightly worse in its first year under Yates. The Wildcats allowed 2.5 more points per game and 2.4 more yards. The UA moved up within the Pac-12 in both categories, from 10th to ninth, but only because several other teams (ASU, Oregon, Cal) regressed even more.
If the Wildcats can rise to the middle of the pack in those stats and others, it would make a significant difference. Generating more turnovers has been a focal point since the new staff was put in place, and it will remain one. Arizona’s 14 takeaways rank 11th in the Pac-12. That’s just not good enough.
No stat is more alarming than the Wildcats’ defensive third-down percentage. Arizona allowed opponents to convert 52.6 percent of their third downs, the worst rate in the nation entering this weekend’s games. Rodriguez spoke often about the defense “not getting home” enough in obvious passing situations. It speaks to the need for more players who can make game-changing plays.
Rodriguez and the staff like what’s coming. They like some of what’s already in place. They believe it’s only a matter of time before the defense takes a leap forward.
When that happens precisely is anyone’s guess.
