The Arizona Wildcats did something against Cal last week that they hadn’t done in 13 years.
No, it wasn’t the win itself. The streak wasn’t that long. It only felt that way.
Arizona limited Cal to a third-down conversion rate of 7.1% — the first time the Wildcats have held an opponent below 10% since 2008.
Third-down defense is one of two aspects of this past Saturday’s 10-3 victory that we’re going to explore in this week’s Utah edition of “Cats Stats.” We know that game is in the rear-view mirror now, but when you haven’t won one since October 2019, it merits special recognition.
The Golden Bears converted only 1 of 14 third-down opportunities. The last UA opponent that failed to make at least 10% was Idaho in ’08 (final score that evening: 70-0).
The last UA foe to convert only one third down in a game was Washington State the following season. The Cougars went 1 for 10 in a 48-7 loss in Tucson.
(That was a particularly rough stretch for WSU. The Cougars went 5-32 from 2008-10, their first three seasons under Paul Wulff. They didn’t have an above-.500 finish again until 2015 under Mike Leach.)
The 2021 Wildcats achieved historic third-down stubbornness mainly by bottling up the Bears on first and second downs.
Nine of Cal’s 14 third-down scenarios required a gain of at least 7 yards. Only three were third-and-shorts (1-3 yards). The other two were third-and-mediums (4-6 yards).
The only successful Cal conversion came on a third-and-1 in the third quarter. The Wildcats subsequently stopped the Bears on third-and-10, limited them to a field goal that tied the score at 3-3.
(That drive began with a 30-yard gain that should have been negated by a penalty — Cal had two linemen illegally downfield — but that and other officiating gripes are another column for another time.)
The average distance Cal needed to traverse on third down to keep the chains moving was 8 yards. Linebacker Anthony Pandy remarked this week that he wasn’t on the field for many of them because they fell into the third-and-long category, requiring the nickel package that he isn’t a part of. Pandy played a season-low 52 defensive snaps, according to Pro Football Focus. Rashie Hodge Jr., the nickel ’backer, played a season-high 18.
Third-and-long is a desirable neighborhood for defenses. The Wildcats got in trouble the previous week at USC, at least in part, because they couldn’t keep the Trojans out of manageable situations.
USC went 6 of 12 on third down. Half of those were third-and-short scenarios. The Trojans were 5 of 6 in those situations. They were just 1 of 6 when needing 4 yards or more. Their average distance on third down was 4.4 yards.
Arizona cornerback Treydan Stukes breaks up a pass intended for USC’s Tahj Washington during the second half of their game in Los Angeles last month.
We’ve always contended here at “Cats Stats” that every yard matters. We’ve written about field position several times — usually in a negative light.
Arizona won that aspect of the game against Cal as well, continuing a positive trend under first-year coach Jedd Fisch and his staff.
The Wildcats were plus-9 in average starting field position. Arizona’s average starting point was its 30-yard line; Cal’s was its 21.
The last time the Wildcats had an advantage that great was Sept. 28, 2019, against UCLA — their next-to-last win before the losing streak began. Arizona also was plus-9 that evening.
Being in the black in that category is a new phenomenon for the Wildcats. That UCLA game was one of only two during the 2019 and ’20 seasons — a span of 17 contests — in which they had the edge in average starting field position.
Arizona faced an average deficit of 7 yards in 2019. Last year, that figure was minus-12.4 — inflated by the Territorial Cup, in which the Wildcats had a remarkable 30-yard deficit in average starting field position. ASU’s average starting point in that turnover-filled blowout was Arizona's 48-yard line.
(We had to double-check that stat, because it seems so preposterous, but it’s true. You had to be there.)
Field position has been a virtual dead heat for the 2021 Wildcats. They’ve had the edge in five of their nine games. The average differential for the season is less than 1 yard (minus-0.8).
What’s changed this year? For starters, punter Kyle Ostendorp is having an all-conference-caliber season. Ostendorp ranks second in the Pac-12 in gross punting average (48.2 yards). The Wildcats rank fourth in net punting average (40.5).
Ostendorp earned Pac-12 Special Teams Player of the Week honors after average 50.1 yards and placing four of seven punts inside the 20-yard line against Cal.
Here’s a look at how Ostendorp and the punt team were able to flip the field on his four punts that netted 50 or more yards:
PUNT NO. 2
- Arizona drive end point: UA 34-yard line
- Cal starting point: Cal 8
- Net change: 58 yards
PUNT NO. 4
- Arizona end point: UA 27
- Cal starting point: Cal 22
- Net change: 51 yards
PUNT NO. 6
- Arizona end point: UA 28
- Cal starting point: Cal 18
- Net change: 54 yards
PUNT NO. 7
- Arizona end point: UA 44
- Cal starting point: Cal 1
- Net change: 55 yards
Ostendorp also pinned the Bears at their 8 on a 37-yard punt from the Cal 45.
Arizona’s offense also has contributed to reducing the field-position deficit, although you wouldn’t know it at first blush.
The Wildcats rank last in the Pac-12 in scoring (16.0 ppg) and ninth in total offense (359.1 ypg). But they’re first in plays run (74.0 per game).
Arizona has shown it can move the ball. The Wildcats just haven’t been able to score.
Overall, they’re moving in the right direction.
