Cats Stats: Numbers reveal true secret to success for Khalil Tate, Arizona offense

Cats’ passing efficiency sterling when Tate's attempts are limited

When it comes to Khalil Tate’s passing attempts, less is more.

When he attempts 20 or fewer passes in a game, Tate is a much more efficient quarterback — and Arizona usually wins. When he attempts more than that, his efficiency plummets — as does the Wildcats’ winning percentage.

We’ll get into all the specifics shortly. In the process, we’ll take a deep dive into the games in which Tate threw more than 20 times to determine if there’s a cause and effect.

Before all that, two quick acknowledgements: (1) Teams tend to pass more when they’re behind, and that does skew the numbers; (2) QB winning percentage is an imperfect measurement of QB “success.” We’ll tackle those issues later in the piece.

But first, the numbers. We looked at every game Tate has played since the Colorado game last year, when he had his breakthrough and became Arizona’s starter.

In the eight games in which he has attempted 20 or fewer passes, Tate has a 68.7 percent completion rate, a 13-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio and averages 12.56 yards per attempt. The Wildcats are 7-1 in those games, with the lone loss coming at Arizona State last season. Tate was hurt at the end of the first half and barely played in the second. Arizona was leading 24-14 at the time.

In the six games in which Tate has thrown more than 20 times, he has a 52.0 percent completion rate, an 11-to-8 TD-to-INT ratio and averages 6.75 yards per attempt. The Wildcats are 0-6 in those games.

In the eight games with 20 or fewer attempts, Tate has completed more than 50 percent of his passes every time. In the six games with more than 20, he has completed 50 percent or less half the time.

One more note on those figures before we move on: Tate has 67 more yards — 1,444 to 1,377 — on 115 attempts in the eight games with 20 or fewer than on 204 attempts in the six games with more than 20.

Obviously, it’s harder to pass when the other team knows it’s coming. That’s inevitably what happens when you fall behind by a significant margin, and that is what happened in the majority of games in which Tate threw more than 20 times. Let’s take a closer look:

USC, 2017

The Trojans led 21-6 at halftime and 28-6 early in the third quarter. Tate rallied Arizona to a 35-35 tie in the fourth before USC pulled away for a 49-35 win. Tate finished 14 of 31 for 146 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions. He attempted 12 passes in the first half, 19 in the second.

Oregon, 2017

The Ducks led 28-21 at halftime and 35-21 midway through the third quarter. It was a one-score game — 35-28 — entering the fourth. The Wildcats failed to score in the final period, when Tate attempted 16 passes. He finished 18 of 35 for 159 yards with one TD and two picks in a 48-28 setback.

Purdue, 2017

The Boilermakers led 31-14 at halftime of the Foster Farms Bowl. Tate led a rally that put the Wildcats ahead 35-31 with 3:21 remaining. Purdue scored the winning touchdown with 1:44 left. This game is an outlier in multiple ways. Tate actually attempted fewer passes in the second half (12) than in the first (14). This was also by far his most efficient game with more than 20 attempts. He finished 17 of 26 for 302 yards with five touchdowns and one interception.

BYU, 2018

The Wildcats led 10-7 at halftime but trailed 28-10 at the end of the third quarter. Two fourth-quarter touchdowns made it 28-23, but Arizona couldn’t get the ball back. Tate attempted 20 passes in the first half, six in the third quarter, eight in the fourth. He finished 17 of 34 for 197 yards with one touchdown and no picks.

Houston, 2018

The Cougars raced to a 31-0 halftime lead and expanded it to 38-0 early in the third quarter. Tate threw a career-high 45 times, including 35 over the final three periods. The Wildcats never got closer than 20 points in a 45-18 loss. Tate finished 24 of 45 for 341 yards with no TDs and two interceptions.

USC, 2018

The Trojans led 17-0 at halftime and 24-0 early in the third quarter. As happened against BYU, Arizona made it a one-score game late in the fourth quarter but couldn’t get the ball back. USC won 24-20. Tate finished 16 of 33 for 232 yards with two touchdowns and one interception, with 26 of those attempts coming in the final three quarters.

Rushing makes the Arizona offense tick

In all six games, Arizona trailed by double figures at some point before the fourth quarter. It stands to reason that Tate’s efficiency would suffer under those circumstances.

It’s important to note, though, that the Wildcats did not abandon the run in those games. They averaged 42.2 rushing attempts. In the eight games in which Tate attempted 20 or fewer passes, they averaged 47 rushes.

The more pertinent stat is Arizona’s average per carry in those two scenarios. In the six games in which Tate threw more than 20 times, the Wildcats averaged 3.6 yards per rush. In the other eight games, they averaged 8.0. The former produced 151.7 rushing yards per game, the latter 377.1.

UA coach Kevin Sumlin has been on board for only half of the six losses suffered in which Tate threw more than 20 times. But Sumlin has come to understand what truly makes the Arizona offense go.

“For us to be successfully offensively, we’ve got to be able to continue to run the ball and take the pressure off our receivers and our quarterbacks,” Sumlin said. “That’s a point of emphasis for us.”

This piece should not be interpreted as an indictment of Tate’s ability. Losses are never completely the fault of the quarterback. If Arizona had gotten a stop against Purdue, that game would have gone down as a win for Tate.

Rather, what the data reveals is a clear formula for offensive success for this iteration of UA football.

Whether it’s Tate handing the ball off or taking it himself, Arizona is at its best when it’s running effectively. As talented as Tate is, if you can stuff the Wildcats’ run game, you’ve got a very good chance to beat them.