Pac-12 Power Rankings: 'Snow Dawgs,' Utah rose to top during topsy-turvy season

Old picks exposed — and a look ahead

The Star’s panel of Michael Lev, Ryan Finley, Justin Spears and Dominic Baciocco takes its swing at the final batch of power rankings. Baciocco compiles the votes and hashes out the weekly results below, with a "we said it" looking back at our projections for each team at the start of the college football season.

1. Washington Huskies (9-3, 7-2 Pac-12; preseason rank: 1)

Last week: Beat No. 8 Washington State, 28-15

This week: Pac-12 championship game vs. No. 17 Utah, 6 p.m. Friday

Bowl projection: Rose Bowl

We said it: “The Huskies return nine starters from a defense that led the Pac-12 a year ago.”

Washington was always in the mix, even after a loss to Auburn to start the season. A Week 7 loss to Oregon shifted the power and the Huskies hung on for dear life in the ludicrous Pac-12 North. Myles Gaskin kept the Huskies’ offense moving in conference wins over Utah, Arizona State, Stanford and Washington State. Gaskin hit the century mark in three of those four contests, totaling 547 yards and five scores. The senior became the first Pac-12 rusher to top 1,000 yards on the ground in all four seasons. Washington’s defense led the conference for the fourth straight year and ranked 13th nationally entering championship week. The Huskies are a win away from their third straight New Years Six bowl and their first Rose Bowl bid since they last won it 18 years ago.

2. Washington State Cougars (10-2, 7-2; preseason rank: 11)

Last week: Lost to No. 16 Washington, 28-15

Bowl projection: Valero Alamo Bowl

We said it: “Mike Leach says four of his quarterbacks could conceivably start in Week 1. That decision may very well determine if it’s a rebuild year — or if Wazzu makes a fourth straight bowl game.”

Anthony Gordon, Trey Tinsley and Cammon Cooper. Ring a bell? How about Gardner Minshew? That was the four-man race for the starter’s job in Pullman before the season kicked off. The latter could have walked away from football after graduating from East Carolina. He could have played second fiddle to Tua Tagovailoa at Alabama, where he committed after starting just five games and appearing in 10 as a senior at ECU. But Leach had already put into play one of the more remarkable stories of the 2018 college football season. Leach outrecruited Alabama with a simple question: Do you want to be a backup at Alabama or do you want to lead the nation in passing? Minshew will be standing next to Tagovailoa after all — when the two gather in New York next weekend for the Heisman Trophy presentation.

3. Utah Utes (9-3, 6-3; preseason rank: 5)

Last week: Beat BYU, 35-27

Bowl projection: San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl

We said it: “Coach Kyle Whittingham's challenge to second-year starter Tyler Huntley was simple: Don't get hit.”

Utah's quarterbacks have a knack for getting hurt. The trend continued when they lost Huntley in Week 10. His replacement, Jason Shelley, has carried the Utes to the Pac-12 championship game for the first time since the game's inception in 2011. Utah hasn’t lost since Huntley exited a Nov. 3 game in Tempe with a broken collarbone, and is similarly perfect since star running back Zack Moss reaggravated a knee injury while climbing into bed. 

4. Stanford Cardinal (7-4, 5-3; preseason rank: 2)

Last week: Beat UCLA, 49-42

This week: at Cal, 1 p.m. Saturday

Bowl projection: Redbox Bowl

We said it: “If the Cardinal defense can rev up the pressure, the north could quickly become a two-horse race.”

Why did Stanford end up struggling? Look no further than running back Bryce Love. The 2017 Heisman Trophy finalist was hobbled with a lingering ankle injury for most of the season and missed two games. When he played, Love wasn’t his usual self. He averaged a career-low 4.6 yards per carry and rushed for more than 100 yards just once in nine games. Stanford’s defensive unit didn’t do it any favors, ranking ninth in the Pac-12 in total defense and allowing 30 or more points in four conference games.

5. Oregon Ducks (8-4, 5-4; preseason rank: 4)

Last week: Beat Oregon State, 55-15

Bowl projection: Hyundai Sun Bowl

We said it: “Luckily for Mario Cristobal and Justin Herbert, the Oregon offensive line is ripe with experience and should be one of the better fronts in the conference.”

Herbert had Oregon off to a promising start in large thanks to an offensive line that boasted five redshirt juniors. The unit ranked third in the conference with just 19 sacks allowed, but 12 of them came in Oregon’s four losses. Herbert stayed healthy all season after battling injuries in the past, and started every game for Oregon to record career-highs in virtually every statistical category. The combo of Herbert and receiver Dillon Mitchell will be one to watch if both return for their senior seasons.

6. Arizona State Sun Devils (7-5, 5-4; preseason rank: 10)

Last week: Beat Arizona, 41-40

Bowl projection: Las Vegas Bowl

We said it: “As long as Manny Wilkins has deep threat N’Keal Harry, the Sun Devils will put up points.”

The Sun Devils’ season of “what-ifs” has been well documented. With all five of its losses coming by a touchdown or less — and four of its wins by the same margin — Arizona State’s season could have gone much differently. The end result: a 7-5 season and a bowl game in coach Herm Edwards’ first season. Edwards got a sniff of the AP poll for a week at No. 23 after a thrilling Week 2 win over Michigan State, and won games at USC and against the Pac-12 South champion Utes. The Sun Devils topped it all off with one of the more improbable comebacks in program history over the rival Wildcats. Eno Benjamin led the Pac-12 in rushing, and Harry emerged as a first-round NFL draft pick. That's a combination that can hang with any in the country. 

7. Cal Golden Bears (7-4, 4-4; preseason rank: 7)

Last week: Beat Colorado, 33-21

This week: vs. Stanford, 1 p.m. Saturday

Bowl projection: Cheez-It Bowl

We said it: “Justin Wilcox's team could turn some heads this year, especially with a favorable schedule including home games with Washington, Oregon and Stanford.”

Cal split the first two of that three-game slate, toppling Washington a month after getting blasted by Oregon. Beating USC on the road means more to this program than it appears on paper, and a win in the Big Game would be the first of its kind since 2009. Wilcox has done wonders for the Golden Bears program in nearly two seasons, but beating Stanford could put Cal in a nice spot for years to come. Wilcox owns the conference’s No. 5 recruiting class for 2019, and already has a nice jump on 2020 with a class that ranks third in the Pac-12. Not bad for a program that hasn't finished higher in recruiting than seventh in the Pac-12 since 2014.

8. Arizona Wildcats (5-7, 4-5; preseason rank: 6)

Last week: Lost to Arizona State, 41-40

Bowl projection: Not eligible

We said it: “The line will have to do its job to help Khalil Tate develop as a passer, and if the young defense continues to mature, Arizona should have no problem winning more games than in 2017.”

OK, so it was unfair to presume that a quarterback with eight career starts would be Arizona’s first Heisman Trophy recipient. The offense underperformed under first-year coach Kevin Sumlin and coordinator Noel Mazzone, if only for the unreasonably lofty expectations. Give Sumlin some time to recruit his own guys and perfect his system at Arizona. Tate threw nearly twice as many touchdowns as a year ago (26 up from 14), passed for almost 1,000 more yards (2,530 up from 1,591) and was intercepted eight times compared to last year's nine. Those are developments in which any team should find solace.

9. USC Trojans (5-7, 4-5; preseason rank: 3)

Last week: Lost to No. 3 Notre Dame, 24-17

Bowl projection: Not eligible

We said it: “JT Daniels will be the first true freshman to start at USC since fellow Mater Dei High School grad Matt Barkley in 2009.”

The 18-year-old true freshman played like one in his first season at USC, but Daniels was hardly the Trojans’ biggest problem. Athletic director Lynn Swann wrote in a letter to the Trojan family last week that Clay Helton will continue to serve as the team’s head coach. The letter was full of upbeat energy and promises of a feel-good story for the ages. One particular line stood out: “Coach Helton inherited a program in turmoil.” Helton inherited a program in so much “turmoil” that the Trojans made three bowl games and won the Pac-12 championship and a Rose Bowl in his first three years. Either he was college football’s best coach then, or there wasn’t that much turmoil. The program had the No. 3 recruiting class when true freshman Matt Barkley led USC to a 9-4 record in 2009. It had the No. 4 class when Daniels took over. Turnover and down years are an inevitable fate for most teams in the country — they shouldn’t be for USC.

10. UCLA Bruins (3-9, 3-6; preseason rank: 9)

Last week: Lost to Stanford, 49-42

Bowl projection: Not eligible

We said it: “It's up to Chip Kelly to quickly establish the Bruins' next QB between Devon Modster, Wilton Speight and Dorian Thompson-Robinson.”

The Bruins surely expected some down time after hiring Kelly to reboot the program. They probably weren’t expecting the program’s worst season in 47 years. Kelly whiffed in his first attempt to find UCLA’s next Josh Rosen, and he might have some trouble moving forward with the Pac-12’s 11th-ranked recruiting class in 2019. Rebuilding takes time, and that’s a process Kelly isn’t necessarily familiar with. He inherited a 10-3 Oregon team from Mike Bellotti in 2008; UCLA finished 6-7 and 4-8 in the two years prior to hiring Kelly. UCLA’s rebuild will take a while.

11. Colorado Buffaloes (5-7, 2-7; preseason rank: 8)

Last week: Lost to Cal, 33-21

Bowl projection: Not eligible

We said it: “The most glaring deficiency the Buffaloes and sixth-year head coach Mike MacIntyre have is the void left by running back Phillip Lindsay.”

MacIntyre left the program with some of the conference’s top weapons in receiver Laviska Shenault Jr. and linebacker Nate Landman. Travon McMillian replaced Lindsay at running back and rushed for 5 yards per carry, on par with Lindsay’s average a year ago. Steven Montez didn’t improve much under center and the deflating effort by the entire team in the second half (seven straight losses) sent MacIntyre packing. 

12. Oregon State Beavers (2-10, 1-8; preseason rank: 12)

Last week: Lost to Washington, 42-23

Bowl projection: Not eligible

We said it: “A glimmer of hope might be with newly-named starter Jake Luton.”

Luton returned from a spinal fracture, but missed four games this year while dealing with a concussion and an ankle injury. After returning in late October, the senior threw nine touchdowns to just three interceptions over four games. That, paired with the outstanding rushing from freshman back Jermar Jefferson, still wasn’t enough for the Beavers to make a dent. The team won just one conference game, an overtime thriller against Colorado. That’s a small step for a program still looking for its first winning season since 2013.