Twenty-five takeaways. Feels like a lot, right?
Spring football is more about development than statistics, but that number jumps off the page. Especially for Arizona, which forced only six turnovers last season — tied for fewest in FBS.
“It’s a big deal,” defensive end Jalen Harris said.
“Huge, huge, huge,” said cornerback Christian Roland-Wallace.
How big? How huge? We’ll try to put the spring-practice takeaway total in perspective in a little bit.
But it’s a noteworthy accomplishment by any measure — and, perhaps, a sign of things to come.
That’s the topic we’re going to explore today in the second part of our UA spring-ball rewind.
Lingering question No. 2: Can the UA defense take the ball away in games the way it did during spring practice?
Creating more turnovers was a major point of emphasis for new defensive coordinator Johnny Nansen. Then again, no DC comes to a program stating they want fewer takeaways.
The Wildcats have talked about it plenty in recent years; they just haven’t done it. In the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, they had three takeaways in five games. They had 15 in 2019, but six came in the opener at Hawaii. Since then, Arizona has had 18 takeaways in 28 games, or .64 per contest. The top turnover-forcing team in the country last season, Middle Tennessee State, averaged 2.46.
Nansen doesn’t have a track record when it comes to that stat because this is his first opportunity to be a full-time coordinator. We do know this, though: He is an advocate of zone defense, and that seemed to make a big difference in spring, according to multiple players.
The Wildcats primarily played man coverage last year under Don Brown, whose pressure-based system limited opponents to 372.5 yards per game — more than 100 fewer than the previous season (473.0). Brown’s blitzes didn’t produce takeaways, however.
The idea was that pressure applied to quarterbacks would lead to fumbles and/or poor throws. That didn’t happen often enough. Additionally, man coverage doesn’t place defenders in the ideal position to pick off passes.
Cornerback Christian Roland-Wallace might be the Wildcats' best player.
Defensive backs mentioned multiple times this spring that Nansen’s zone scheme enables them to have eyes on the quarterback. It can’t be that simple, though. If it were, every team would play zone and passes would be intercepted at a much greater rate.
What’s happening at Arizona has as much to do with personnel as scheme. Nansen inherited a veteran secondary that’s the unquestioned strength of the defense. He arrived in Tucson at the right time.
Roland-Wallace is probably the Wildcats’ best player. Fellow corner Treydan Stukes has performed so well that he’s displaced Isaiah Rutherford from the starting lineup. UA coach Jedd Fisch believes the safety tandem of Jaxen Turner and Christian Young possesses great potential, and they did nothing to change his mind in spring.
Arizona’s top seven defensive backs — those five plus nickel backs DJ Warnell and Gunner Maldonado — have a combined 78 collegiate starts. The secondary accounted for most of the takeaways during spring camp, most of which were interceptions.
The defensive backs played with confidence and attitude throughout the spring. Their matchups with the Wildcats’ vastly improved receiving corps were must-see TV. They won their share of those battles.
These are all positive developments heading into the 2022 season. But, like the team as a whole, the secondary has much to prove. As Nansen said of the spring takeaways: “That’s just a good starting point for us moving forward.”
Those seven defensive backs we referenced have combined for three career interceptions. Roland-Wallace has two. Maldonado has one. That doesn’t mean they aren’t capable of picking off passes in real games; they just haven’t yet.
The ’22 UA defense should benefit from some degree of statistical regression. About 20% of passes defensed (interceptions plus pass breakups) usually end up being intercepted. By that math, the Wildcats, who had 41 passes defensed last year, should have had eight interceptions. They notched just four.
Arizona’s six total takeaways came in a span of 756 plays. Fisch said the Wildcats ran “over 2,000” plays during spring camp. If you round down to 2,000, the UA defense averaged one takeaway every 80 plays in spring. Over 756 plays, the total would be nine, maybe 10 (the exact math: 9.45).
If anything, that’s a good sign for the offense, which turned the ball over 23 times last season, leading to a minus-17 turnover margin that ranked last in FBS. The UA offense ran 869 plays in 2021. If it turned the ball over at the same rate it did in spring, it would have had 11 giveaways.
Again, this isn’t a precise comparison. “Live” tackling is allowed only a fraction of the time in practice, and the quarterbacks never get touched, let alone hit. The turnover numbers likely would be higher if those restrictions weren’t in place.
It’s impossible to project how Arizona’s turnover table will end up this fall. But based on several factors — the defense’s performance in spring, Nansen’s scheme, the strength of the secondary and the arrival of veteran quarterback Jayden de Laura — we’d be shocked if it doesn’t improve significantly.
The last time Arizona finished a season with a positive turnover margin was 2017. That was also the last time the Wildcats had a winning record. It’s not a coincidence.
